[khalfyard]

Just reading this article at INSIDE-EVS - http://insideevs.com/the-trend-of-cheaper-and-cheaper-used-electric-vehicles-continues/ - which points out how VOLTS, LEAFS and even TESLAs are depreciating so much faster than ICE vehicles (and even faster than EVs 5 years ago!)

This is because of so many off-lease vehicles left in the 'dust' due to tech increases in the newer model years. Let's see... A 3 years lease is somewhat analogous to the turn-over for an Apple or Android smart-phone.

Just looking for what people think the market holds as EVs cross the 5% of vehicle sales going forward. Will people continually be 'upgrading' to the latest and greatest (like laptops and smartphones, and TVs) or as EVs become normalized will they become more like traditional cars, with a vibrant reselling market to go along with leases and vehicle purchase.

(Let's put aside for the moment that Autonomous Vehicles are going to shake things up even further in the next decade.)

Thoughts?

 

[saoshen]

You make an interesting question.

I think it is because we still at the start of the EV evolution and technology is still rapidly progressing and getting more efficient.

EV buyers tend to be more technologically aware, so it could follow that many would be inclined to staying on the leading edge of EV tech.

Myself, as a buyer of a CPO leased 2013 volt, I see the rapid price drop as incentive to pick up nearly new tech at heavy discount.

Of course, personally I splurged on the extended warranty, mainly since it will be some time before your local Dobbs or Firestone will the experience and equipment to properly work on the volt drivetrain and systems.

My plan going into the future is, to drive this 1st gen volt until the wheels fall off, then after it is paid fully paid off, start looking at leasing whatever is the next generation EV's available at that time.

It will take some time (probably a decade or more) for EV technology to plateau, and slow the 'churn' of EV buyers chasing the next big thing, versus taking the more long term purchase route on new vehicles.

 

[Qinsp]

What will be interesting, and will most likely assist EV adoption, is a supply of cars with depleted batteries. Say it was rated at 80 mile EPA, then wore down to 50 miles. These will go for very cheap as they still operate, there is no smog, but serious owners will want the 200+ mile cars. I can see these falling to under $4000 within 2-3 years. People will buy them as city cars since there is nothing cheaper. Then they will experience EV driving, which is the best salesman for EVs.

It doesn't work that way for ICE cars, because when the engine or transmission is worn badly, it can't be smogged or driven easily. Those get crushed when the price falls. Even an EV with 20 miles can be useful to many people. It beats walking. If it's only $1000-$2000 it's still cheaper than a golf cart.

 

[Slotracer577]

I think it's driven more by the potential cost of a replacement battery. I use hobby grade lipo batteries and we get new ones every year or even 6 months since the performance drops over time. I know I wouldn't be a used ev, no way I want to be stuck with a bad battery. Also tech is changing so the new cars have bigger better batteries which makes the new cars more desirable. Give it 5 years and it might be more like ice cars. Tech should have slowed down some and there won't be heavy subsidies.

I also think leases right now are heavily subsidized. Once that goes away leases will get more expensive since there is no subsidies and resale is low. That may push people to buy instead of lease. If I were to buy a bolt, I get $13,500 in tax credits. That makes the price closer to $30k instead of $43. I would not consider a $43k car, but 30 is ok. That subsidy is $375 per month over a 3 year lease, so what happens when that is gone?

 

[llninja]

Remember, the state rebates and fed tax credits are a big reason why the cars don't hold their value. Trading in a 1 year old EV with $7500+ already expected because of the tax credits makes it reliably hard to ever get a good deal on a trade in. Then there's just overall awareness. People know how to value a used ICE based on miles and whether the car looks new or worn. But less is known about the battery and whether there is any degradation. Just look at MIEV and Leaf used car prices. It's scary low. If i was retired and didn't have the 6 mile round trip commute, I could consider a used cheap EV for trips to my local town 3 miles away - think of it like a glorified golf cart.

 

[freshcut]

I think another point to make aside from the battery concerns of older EVs is that, lets face it.....there aren't too many attractive looking EVs, and similar to food, you feast with your eyes. Those unfortunate vehicles with aging batteries already have the battery issue going against them while sitting on the lot. And with a small market for those looking at used EVs compounding the problem, it's definitely going to drive prices to meet demand (very low). It's great for those buyers looking at the time, but not enough interest in EVs in general, and even lower interest in used.

 

[Qinsp]

Prediction. Some is going to invest several thousands dollars today and start with rebuilding EV batteries, and will be a multi-millionaire in 5 years selling testing equipment, new replacement batteries, higher capacity batteries, and rebuilt batteries. They will be Pep Boys of the EV market.

 

[DonC]

This isn't Fake News but it's close. More like Misleading News. First using auction prices as a base totally skews the numbers. Second, while some cars, like the Nissan Leaf and the Fiat 500e haven't held their values very well, but those are horrible cars. The Volt and the Model S have done just fine. In fact, once you factor in the rebates and credits they are doing better than comparable ICE vehicles.

I paid full MSRP for my Volt and it have lost less as a percentage and in an absolute amount than the last few cars I've owned.

Remember, the state rebates and fed tax credits are a big reason why the cars don't hold their value. Trading in a 1 year old EV with $7500+ already expected because of the tax credits makes it reliably hard to ever get a good deal on a trade in.

If pay $30K for a car after the tax credit then the transaction price of the car is $30K. What do you expect to get in a trade in? Given that every car loses about 20% a year, after one year you should expect to get something less $24K (you're buying at retail and selling at wholesale). Anything above that price is better than average. After three years you should expect to get less than $15,360. Don't blame this on the car, it's because the used car market is a broken mess.

It's not that the car doesn't "hold it's value", it's that you're using the wrong value as a starting point.

 

[Bacardi]

Isn't car ownership going away?

once you factor in the rebates and credits they are doing better than comparable ICE vehicles

This is part of the debate, we have the federal tax credit but everything gets dicey, different states offer different incentives, the Gen1 $5K price cut dropped the value and like with every car, a factory rebate tends to lower resale by the rebate amount...The Volt often has many and/or deep incentives...We can routinely find good examples of 2011 which stickered for $40K+ for under $10K...

 

[llninja]

Isn't car ownership going away?



This is part of the debate, we have the federal tax credit but everything gets dicey, different states offer different incentives, the Gen1 $5K price cut dropped the value and like with every car, a factory rebate tends to lower resale by the rebate amount...The Volt often has many and/or deep incentives...We can routinely find good examples of 2011 which stickered for $40K+ for under $10K...

car ownership going away? Maybe in SoCal where people are moving to Uber and Lyft, but I can't very well get either to come to my farm in the middle of nowhere and bring me to work. Plus, what happens if I need to regularly haul something that requires a pickup truck. No, car ownership is here to stay.

As for complaining about used 2011 volts, here's a used 2011 BMW for less than 10k. I'm guessing the MSRP was close to $40k

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/692533682/overview/

 

[KenC]

Will EVs be like smartphones? No. Smartphones have been improving at the rate of Moore's law, so upgrading regularly got you big improvements in speed and performance.

EVs, unless there's a revolution in batteries, don't have that level of improvement. Your current Volt or Bolt is a very nice vehicle compared to an ICE, so unless all ICE vehicles get obsoleted at the same time, I just don't see it turning into the smartphone market.

 

[llninja]

I think another point to make aside from the battery concerns of older EVs is that, lets face it.....there aren't too many attractive looking EVs, and similar to food, you feast with your eyes. Those unfortunate vehicles with aging batteries already have the battery issue going against them while sitting on the lot. And with a small market for those looking at used EVs compounding the problem, it's definitely going to drive prices to meet demand (very low). It's great for those buyers looking at the time, but not enough interest in EVs in general, and even lower interest in used.

You' really right. I don't like the looks of the Prius prime, the Murai, the BMW i3, the MIEV, and the cmax, but the volts are OK, the ELR is out of this world, and Teslas are sweet. I'm not quite on board with the looks of the bolt. Had they kept the rear windows like the original prototype reveal, I might be tempted. Had they but the bolt innards on something that looked more like a CUV vs. a fit-like car, I'd be all-in. I still don't understand why EVs can't just look like regular cars. Why do they have to weird them up? GM needs to just put Voltec and Boltec into vettes, camaros, impalas, trax, equinox, and Subyukonades. Then make me an all-electric Buick Regal T-type with awd or bring back the Monte Carlo SS.

 

[llninja]

Prediction. Some is going to invest several thousands dollars today and start with rebuilding EV batteries, and will be a multi-millionaire in 5 years selling testing equipment, new replacement batteries, higher capacity batteries, and rebuilt batteries. They will be Pep Boys of the EV market.

I should do this. But first I need to add onto my barn and add a car lift so I can get to the batteries. I've always wondered whether you can take a 2015 battery and transplant it into a 2013 (or 2011/12) and it would just work. or do you have to have the dealer go in here and reprogram stuff. WOT? Any answers?

If it can be done just by swapping batteries, I'd be willing to scour junk yards for a 2015 to do the transplant.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

No, they won't.

Right now there's large depreciation because:
- There are large incentives on new vehicles: that automatically takes a chunk off value
- PEVs have a very high lease rate (deals with front-loading of incentives) so there are a lot of used vehicles available
- Newer PEVs are substantially better than old ones
- Concerns about battery degradation
- Concerns about off-warranty costs depress value. (This happens with hybrids as well, where off-warranty cuts value by thousands)

As the PEV market normalizes, leasing will drop, turnover will slow and the resale values will normalize. That should happen within 5 years.

 

[Bullyveldt]

I don't know, but I do know with my daughter turning 14, and likely wanting to drive in a few years, and me not wanting to share my gen 2, i may taken advantage of depressed gen 1 volt prices and get her a good safe gen1 to use.

 

[Bacardi]

car ownership going away? Maybe in SoCal where people are moving to Uber and Lyft, but I can't very well get either to come to my farm in the middle of nowhere and bring me to work. Plus, what happens if I need to regularly haul something that requires a pickup truck. No, car ownership is here to stay.

As for complaining about used 2011 volts, here's a used 2011 BMW for less than 10k. I'm guessing the MSRP was close to $40k

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/692533682/overview/

You didn't see GM's own video where she foresees you taking a GM lyft to work in NYC then rent a Vette convertible from GM's Maven for the weekend to go to the Hamptons? In CA there was a point prior to the deployment of uber's "surge" pricing and Lyft's "Plus" that is could be cheaper than car ownership once you include maintenance, registration and insurance but surge/plus pricing killed that...

Luxury cars are notorious for weak resale, the Volt is a Chevy, you probably would have been better off picking a Jaguar or Land Rover...While their reliability has greatly improved since Ford sold them to Tata, they're still notorious for having all sorts of toys/gizmos fail...A/C goes out before 100K miles (after the warranty) and you want it fix? Widely reported issue that costs at least a thousand to fix...

 

[JStrnad]

Just looking at the Volt, I would imagine the depreciation to slow down.

If someone leases now, the federal tax credit will probably have expired for GM by the end of the lease, if it hasn't been killed sooner by Congressional action. That will bolster used car values, as people have stated already.

But also, the Volt seems to be in a sweet spot.

With 50 miles of all-electric range, it exceeds most people's daily driving needs. GM could continue to increase that range with a bigger, more expensive battery, but they would hit a point of diminishing returns: The price of the car would go up (relative to keeping the current battery size), but the larger battery would service fewer and fewer additional buyers. Whether the Volt gets 50 miles all-electric driving daily or 75 or 100 doesn't mean much to people who drive less than that on a daily basis. There's some slight advantage on road trips, but that's it, and that tiny advantage might not outweigh the extra cost.

If Gen 3 gave the same performance at substantially less cost, that would hurt used car values. But how much can they lower the cost? If the current battery cost is figured at $145/kwh, that would put it at $2668. (I'm open to hearing better stats!) If, in the next three years, it hit $100/kwh, the cost would be $1840, or an $828 savings. That isn't enough to fuel one those major price drops that we've seen in the past.

Unless some radical new tech comes along to obsolete the current Volt, I see the 2017 holding its value better than Volts and (especially) full-EVs have in the past.