[Steverino]

"Given that only about 1% of all new car buyers purchase an electric vehicle every year in the U.S., the technology itself is still very much in the innovator class. Even hybrids, in the market for nearly 20 years now, accounted for just 2.2% of new car sales in 2016, down from a high of 3.3% in 2013, according to MotorIntelligence. In fact, IHS Markit reports that hybrid and electric vehicles combined for just 3% of new car sales globally, so it’s taken 20 years for hybrids to move beyond the “innovator” 2.5%. Over 16 million unique shoppers come to Kelley Blue Book every month to research cars. Only about 3% research luxury electric cars and only about 2% research hybrid vehicles."

http://fortune.com/2017/08/02/tesla-model-3-launch-elon-musk-price-electric-vehicles/

The article dives into details about the challenges facing Tesla (and by extension other manufacturers), but basically, we are still in the very, very early stages of EV adoption by the general public. "The Masses" will not be buying EV's from anyone for a long time yet.

 

[Ladogaboy]

Very true that most people won't buy either car, which makes sense because they represent two small segments of the total auto market. The good news is, if Tesla hits their production goals for the year, plug-in sales should represent over 1% of total sales for the year. That is pretty impressive considering how few states are pushing EVs and how many auto manufacturers are resisting (or building lackluster plug-in offerings).

Another interesting statistic (I'll have to see if I can find the link... I believe it was a Bloomberg article) is that the median new car purchase price (as opposed to average) is closer to $22,000. Both the Bolt EV and the Model 3 would need to come down considerably in price to be attainable by over 50% of new car buyers.

 

[Shivetya]

Pure EVs get a benefit in purchase decisions because of the feel good factor. However that does not outweigh all their real limitations. Multi-car families are in better position to overcome/ignore those limitations. Its the one car only families that have to seriously balance their needs with regards to EVs. One area that might benefit is rental but that requires many to change their habits.

That last part is one reason I decided to buy the Volt instead of wait for the Bolt.

 

[BAZINGA]

As much as I'm a believer and want EV's to succeed, most if not all of my co-workers (over 55) have grown kids finally out of college and their homes now they can now get rid of 10-12 year old SUV or mini van and have the disposable income to buy almost any vehicle they want and NONE of them are talking about buying a $45K to $55K EV. This could be their last hurrah before retirement and they are talking about a new SUV, (they love the size as they get older and want some of the new technology a newer vehicle offers) or they are looking at a TOY, Camaro, Mustang, Vette maybe a BMW. Hell I just bought a 2017 GMC Acadia for grand kid duty.

These are baby boomers with a lot of money and now want to indulge them selves. So that leaves the Gen X'ers who are now entering their peak earning years. So they are the demographic that has the money and desire to buy an EV. Question is will they in LARGE numbers. My guess, is probably enough to keep a company like Tesla going but mainstream auto manufactures not so much. Hate to say but the folks I work with in their mid 30's - 40's have no interest in GM, Ford of FCA, maybe a BMW, Jag or MB and certainly a Tesla.

That's just an observation from my peach and what do I know?

 

[rmay635703]

The Model 3 surprise surprise is a $50k car for the foreseeable future
Less than 8% of all vehicles sold are over $50k

Model 3 is entering a small and crowded low volume market.

Now the 2019 Honda Model III
Insight with its expected $20,000 MSRP might be a volume seller

https://translate.googleusercontent...1.html&usg=ALkJrhhusI5dYhlOc0sH5RbeVZhpZ9F4EQ

 

[JY07]

The base version is $27,500 after tax credit: not far from the median price.

This is a volt forum so I understand the bias, and I cancelled my model 3 reservation last year when I bought a volt, but with the model 3 being at 450k active reservations I think it'll do just fine; I don't know how applicable those statistics you quoted are going to be

 

[rmay635703]

The average Model 3 sold will be over $50k

No base cars are being sold or manufactured for the foreseeable future

 

[obermd]

The base version is $27,500 after tax credit: not far from the median price.

This is a volt forum so I understand the bias, and I cancelled my model 3 reservation last year when I bought a volt, but with the model 3 being at 450k active reservations I think it'll do just fine; I don't know how applicable those statistics you quoted are going to be

The flaw with the "after tax credit" argument is that unless you can afford the car without the tax credit you won't buy it. The tax credit does nothing to assist with the initial purchase price.

 

[viking79]

The average Model 3 sold will be over $50k

No base cars are being sold or manufactured for the foreseeable future

Standard battery is coming this fall, which will bring it down to $40k with Premium package.

 

[Raymondjram]

EVs and hybrid don't sell as much because only Toyota puts out ads promoting its hybrids. Ford has several hybrid models that are much better (the Fusion Energi beats all PHEVs except the Chevy Volt) and will produce several more for the 2020 MY (some are being tested in private now). If GM promoted more of its EVs and hybrids (Cadillac CT6, Chevy Malibu, Buick LaCrosse and Regal), then there will be more sales and more on the roads.

 

[ZamboniMan]

EVs and hybrid don't sell as much because only Toyota puts out ads promoting its hybrids. Ford has several hybrid models that are much better (the Fusion Energi beats all PHEVs except the Chevy Volt) and will produce several more for the 2020 MY (some are being tested in private now). If GM promoted more of its EVs and hybrids (Cadillac CT6, Chevy Malibu, Buick LaCrosse and Regal), then there will be more sales and more on the roads.

I completely agree. I can't turn a corner without seeing Prii EVERYWHERE! They've been around the longest, but they also push the product. There's a line of taxis here in Milwaukee that is almost exclusively Prii. If Chevy would get the word out, I think a lot more folks would consider making the green choice.

 

[Qinsp]

Nobody knows what the conversion factor of the M3 reservations will be. Anybody in business knows that you do not convert all potential customers.

Personally, I'm hoping the conversion will be low so I get my M310 faster. So I'm a schmuck.

However, until Tesla Motors actually proves they can ramp up to 5,000 EV sales a week by Dec 31, what is entirely possible is that my car will be delayed based on Tesla's 'forward-looking' marketing in the past.

If there is a battery supply issue (they fired their Battery Chief for some reason), production will be tied to battery output.

If I had to guess, based on history, I'd say the early reservation (Mar31/April1) conversions will not be completely serviced prior to late 2018.

It is highly likely that I will buy a 2018 model EV, that is NOT a Tesla. For my needs, I do not want a 4200+ lb EV that is as wide as full sized luxury sedan or I'd have a Model S already.

If the 2018 Bolt throws us a surprise (ACC or SuperCruise or power or range or AWD or Sport option), I might just hold off on my M310 reservation. Or a 3rd player could appear for 2018 that I could consider.

 

[DonC]

The thesis is no doubt true. On the other hand, you can't get to 10% unless you get to 2%, 5% and 8%. LOL Where I am I think it's closer to 5%.

As for potential sales of the Model 3. BMW and MB only sell about 175K 3 series and C class vehicles a year, and the transaction prices on those vehicles start at $30K. This is one reason why I have trouble with the numbers being tossed around for the Model 3. The potential market for a small sedan drops off precipitously after $40K.

I do think that a BEV as a second car or an EREV CUV for a main car makes a lot of sense. Once people experience the joy of refueling at home and the cost savings and superior drive of an electric, I think more will be willing to buy. But it will be a process.

 

[llninja]

you cannot cite past performance (1% of new car buyers purchase electric) as an indication of future performance in light of the backlog that Tesla has. The TM3 is the next baby step towards more and more vehicles getting electrified. Projections and wishful thinking aside, nobody really knows how many Model 3s will sell. A year or two from now, we'll see whether Tesla blossoms, stays about the same size, or shrinks because of this.

 

[Upper5Percent]

you cannot cite past performance (1% of new car buyers purchase electric) as an indication of future performance in light of the backlog that Tesla has. The TM3 is the next baby step towards more and more vehicles getting electrified. Projections and wishful thinking aside, nobody really knows how many Model 3s will sell. A year or two from now, we'll see whether Tesla blossoms, stays about the same size, or shrinks because of this.

April...
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-april-vehicle-sales-20170502-story.html
May...
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-may-vehicle-sales-20170601-story.html
June...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-sales-usa-idUSKBN19O1PJ
July...
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/summertime-blues-automakers-car-sales-decline-48967581

There’s no denying the ongoing drop in auto sales, but this is a drop from record levels to near-record levels, unlike what happened in 2009. Brands with fresh and appealing trucks or SUVs continue to do well, many of them seeing record volume on vehicles with high profit margins...

 

[llninja]

April...
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-april-vehicle-sales-20170502-story.html
May...
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-may-vehicle-sales-20170601-story.html
June...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-sales-usa-idUSKBN19O1PJ
July...
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/summertime-blues-automakers-car-sales-decline-48967581

There’s no denying the ongoing drop in auto sales, but this is a drop from record levels to near-record levels, unlike what happened in 2009. Brands with fresh and appealing trucks or SUVs continue to do well, many of them seeing record volume on vehicles with high profit margins...

Could the dramatic drop in car sales be a direct result of everyone in line and saving their pennies for a TM3? I know lots of well paid engineers who couldn't afford to buy a Model S, all driving Priuses, Camrys, and Hondas who are jumping in on the Model 3.

Also, maybe all the people who switched to cars and small CUVs when gas prices climbed to $4 per gallon are reverting back to their old wasteful ways because of sub $2 fuel.

Heck, I'm in the market for a Subyukonade (which changes on a revolving basis to a Subaru, Land Rover, or Volvo Hybrid SUV).

 

[Mister Dave]

April...
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-april-vehicle-sales-20170502-story.html
May...
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-may-vehicle-sales-20170601-story.html
June...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-sales-usa-idUSKBN19O1PJ
July...
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/summertime-blues-automakers-car-sales-decline-48967581

There's no denying the ongoing drop in auto sales, but this is a drop from record levels to near-record levels, unlike what happened in 2009. Brands with fresh and appealing trucks or SUVs continue to do well, many of them seeing record volume on vehicles with high profit margins...

WSJ just reported a 7th month of decline.

The TM3 is the next baby step towards more and more vehicles getting electrified.

I'll agree with "baby step". Electrification of our transportation is anything but certain. That may not fit the popular forum view. At best it's promising. There are significant adjustments to make, and I'm not talking about forcing things through legislation. We're talking about massive growth in energy generation and distribution.

In this case a bit of moderation is probably a good thing.

Image added for effect, not as a prophecy.

 

[llninja]

Image added for effect, not as a prophecy.

I'd rather see this

Though one side effect of owning solar panels is that it might cause people to stop planting trees since tree becomes shade which affects electricity generation

 

[Upper5Percent]

Could the dramatic drop in car sales be a direct result of everyone in line and saving their pennies for a TM3? I know lots of well paid engineers who couldn't afford to buy a Model S, all driving Priuses, Camrys, and Hondas who are jumping in on the Model 3.

Also, maybe all the people who switched to cars and small CUVs when gas prices climbed to $4 per gallon are reverting back to their old wasteful ways because of sub $2 fuel.

Heck, I'm in the market for a Subyukonade (which changes on a revolving basis to a Subaru, Land Rover, or Volvo Hybrid SUV).

Only a Tesla Fanboi would come to that conclusion...

 

[Upper5Percent]

I'd rather see this

Though one side effect of owning solar panels is that it might cause people to stop planting trees since tree becomes shade which affects electricity generation

Based on the lots shown in that picture there is NO land for those home owners to plant a tree on...