Why 2017 will go down as the beginning of the end of the internal combustion engine
1 - 18 of 18 Posts
Joined
·
4,890 Posts
It may be a really long time to reach the end...more than likely longer than the current laws on the books in Europe suggest...
With the current rapid advancement of energy storage technologies it is totally feasible. I'd buy a Voltec powertrained Silverado today if it was avaliable. Imagine 80 to 120 miles of EV driving range then 400+ miles @ 50mpg on the good old range extenders. To quote somebody from this forum, "Nice to have options". Throw in a Solar roof/glass for the HVAC system, etc.
I really see in the next 100 years simply a flood of PHEV then a transition to EVs in developed countries, and ultra efficient 1L or less gas bangers in the developing world, like Brazil for example has a terrifyingly unsafe Fiat Panda 1L that runs on 100 ethanol or gas which I have personally driven and got around 60 mpg. The gasoline engine, like the steam engine, or horses for that matter will become an enthusiasts playground!
Or, driving may simple be phased out for more efficient options once the insurance industry gets the full grasp of automation. It might be so costly to drive yourself in the future that it might be a luxury for the wealthy or a simple state fair style novelty!
I really see in the next 100 years simply a flood of PHEV then a transition to EVs in developed countries, and ultra efficient 1L or less gas bangers in the developing world, like Brazil for example has a terrifyingly unsafe Fiat Panda 1L that runs on 100 ethanol or gas which I have personally driven and got around 60 mpg. The gasoline engine, like the steam engine, or horses for that matter will become an enthusiasts playground!
Or, driving may simple be phased out for more efficient options once the insurance industry gets the full grasp of automation. It might be so costly to drive yourself in the future that it might be a luxury for the wealthy or a simple state fair style novelty!
I also believe liquid fuel range extenders will be around much longer than people think.
But instead of internal combustion, in the future, they may use liquid fuel powered fuel cells as range extenders, like Nissan is developing:
http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/...s-world-s-first-solid-oxide-fuel-cell-vehicle
But instead of internal combustion, in the future, they may use liquid fuel powered fuel cells as range extenders, like Nissan is developing:
http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/...s-world-s-first-solid-oxide-fuel-cell-vehicle
The Tesla/Bolt big battery have a cost problem, plus its not clear that the infrastructure can scale up for people's normal road trips needs for reliable transportation over the holidays. 30-60 minutes charging for every 3-4 hours driving is a bit of a hassle too.
The Voltec PHEVs major disadvantage is battery volume and cost, but the Voltec may have similar cost to the big battery EV's.
Voltstat's for the MY2017 median is 200mpg or about ~80% EV; electric except for road trips. The infrastructure requirements aren't as difficult, though we'd like to encourage l2 destination chargers and work chargers where possible.
Then there's the good old internal combustion engine with a Prius style hybrid. Its relatively inexpensive; though its also a little bit slow. And then there's just a vanilla high efficiency ICE engines. The infrastructure is already built out. All new cars can all get 30+mpg, and hybrids 40-50 mpg.
It may take awhile before the internal combustion engine is retired.... its too hard to compete with.
Joined
·
3,684 Posts
Hassle? Really? Doesn't that describe life as a human? At some point the body needs to stop.
You can do the big-sport-drink-bottle method if you are solo, but the gasser still needs to stop for fuel at some point.
And, as always, that EV fuel can be locally and sustainably produced. THAT should be an important factor.
So on a road trip, get up off you ass and take a walk for the extra 20-30 mins required to recharge your EV.
Your body will thank you!
The bigger problem is the shear number of superchargers required as we approach 100% electric cars. Of course, for many people, an EV with sufficient fast charging infrastructure will be fine, and stopping a little longer and a little more often will be fine. But not for all drivers. But building a sufficient infrastructure to adequately support 100% EV peak travel, and supporting it with the grid .... imagine every single gas station along the interstate replaced with a parking lot full of hundreds of superchargers all simultaneously drawing 100kw each ...
Perhaps the Voltec makes more sense.
Batteries are likely to get cheaper over time. But a factor that may take much longer for EV proliferation is charge time/mile. Otherwise BEVs will not be expensive, and they are relatively cheap to maintain. ICEs on the other hand "charge" quickly but are expensive to maintain. Thinking about the Voltec, it has the worst of both sides of this equation. It will be interesting to see where the market goes.
Joined
·
1,342 Posts
It all comes down to energy density. If the energy density of batteries doubles then charge time won't be important at all. There have been a lot of experimental battery types that have demonstrated 2X or better energy densities, enough that we can be confident that sometime in the near future (5-10 years) there will be a practical battery that has at least 2X the energy density of today's batteries. A 2X improvement gives you a Bolt with 480 miles of range, a little more than the combined range of the Volt which for me is around 460. The magic number is 400 miles, at that range you will almost never need to charge on the road. In the summer I do long day trips every weekend, starting out in the morning and coming home late at night. In the two summers that I've had the Volt the longest trips were 385 miles, to Pemaquid Light in Maine, and 375 miles to Warren Vt. The Volt did both of those trips without refueling and I returned home with two gallons in the tank. A BEV with an EPA rating of 400 miles or better would also be able to do those trips without recharging. The only way that you can exceed 400 miles in a day is on an Interstate. Even on an Interstate you would need to stop every 200 miles or so because of the limitations of the human bladder, you would also want something to eat after 4 or 5 hours of driving. At today's Tesla Supercharger speeds you can add 60KW, over 200 miles of range, in 30 minutes which is about the time it would take to eat a quick meal. EVs differ for ICE cars in that they are always fully charged in the morning so the range really is the range, the gas tanks of ICE cars are filled as needed so the range to your first stop can be much less than your full range. In a world of EVs everyone would be plugged in at home so they won't need any local fast charging, except maybe in cities but even there lot's of buildings have parking lots and garages and lightpole chargers might prove to be a better solution than central fast chargers. When taking the family to Wally World you would expect that motels will all have EVSEs so with a 400 mile range car chances are you won't need to charge on the road, but even if you do you will combine it with a pee and snack break.
Pausing 30-60 minutes every 2-5 hours of driving is actually very very healthy for you! Just standing and walking around after every hour of sitting in your desk job is recommended by the doctors to prolong your life.
Technically this works very well. But it still requires a culture change about how we use and fuel our cars. In school I remember driving across country with 3 drivers, stopping only long enough to fuel up, pee, and grab a sandwich -- not nearly long enough to charge the car.
Joined
·
1,342 Posts
I don't see how it involves a culture change. You don't do a lot of extreme road trips in you life and when you do it doesn't matter what obstacles you have to overcome, that's the fun of a trip like that. My most extreme trip was in the early 90s. One day in the summer I decided to see how far North I could go so I pointed the LeBaron GTS North and drove until I was in Labrador. It involved two ferries, one from New Brunswick to Newfoundland and one from Newfoundland to Labrador. In Labrador the roads ran out, there was no way go go any farther so I came back via Nova Scotia. You couldn't do that trip in an EV today but I wouldn't be surprised if it was possible in 10 years. Your trip sounds like something a friend of mine did in the late 70s. Someone at work suggested that they go our for ice cream, someone else said he knew a great place, where was it, San Francisco, so they hopped in a car in Maynard MA and drove straight through to San Francisco. You only do something like that when you are young and you don't do it more than once.
It may get you there a few hours faster than the other way, but it sounds so unpleasant compared to "drive half a tank, get out and walk for ten minutes, drive the other half tank, fuel, pee, have a meal someplace someone brings you the food while sitting on something OTHER than a car seat, change drivers and go on."
Talk about going "North", you should read North to The Night, great adventure book.
No doubt you only do this when you are young. I foolishly did it a couple times, albeit with a little more planning.
I've always the film enjoyed O Brother, Where Art Thou? Near the end of the film George Clooney's character Everett McGill delivers some of the more insightful lines of this film, starting with "Yes, sir, the south is gonna change." (Starts at the 1:00 mark in the following clip.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RTPdAAdw30
Substitute "the world" for "the south" and that pretty much sums up where we are today with electrification of the automobile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RTPdAAdw30
Substitute "the world" for "the south" and that pretty much sums up where we are today with electrification of the automobile.
No doubt it is unpleasant, but when you are young you don't care about that stuff. Now I hate driving more than a few hours without a prolonged stop.
Joined
·
1,342 Posts
I was never at DEC, my ex business partner Herb was. I started at Data General, I was one of the Soul of a New Machine kids.
1 - 18 of 18 Posts
