[Dave86]

Back by popular demand – no one asked for it – is yet another poll.

As affordable 200+ mile EVs start to appear, lead by GM’s Bolt, there will become an increased need for DC fast charging infrastructure to enable long distance travel. Who is going to build this infrastructure?

In constructing this poll, I deliberately left out a “more than one above” option because such an option masks out who people think are most likely going to build (and pay for) DC fast charging infrastructure.

NOTE TO MODERATORS: I put this poll in this forum because its topic is of direct concern for a good percentage of Bolt buyers and lessees. I could have titled this poll “Who is going to build DC fast charging infrastructure for the Bolt”, but since in the future (10 to 25 years) all EVs will share the same infrastructure, I made the poll a little more generic.

 

[saghost]

I tend to think Tesla showed the way here - the manufacturer is the only one who has a vested interest in a widely distributed, high quality charging network - because it lets them sell more cars, especially if they build the cost into the car's price and can thereby advertise "free" DCFC for the life of the car.

With Tesla's business plan and first mover advantage, I believe it's going to be very hard for someone else to make a network function on any other basis - especially if Tesla delivers on a mass market car in the same time frame that others do (or even just before they have their network up and running.)

 

[Neromanceres]

I tend to think Tesla showed the way here - the manufacturer is the only one who has a vested interest in a widely distributed, high quality charging network - because it lets them sell more cars, especially if they build the cost into the car's price and can thereby advertise "free" DCFC for the life of the car.

With Tesla's business plan and first mover advantage, I believe it's going to be very hard for someone else to make a network function on any other basis - especially if Tesla delivers on a mass market car in the same time frame that others do (or even just before they have their network up and running.)

In some sense I would argue Tesla had to do it this way. They have no choice because they have decided to create a unique charging standard.

The majority of the automotive world has signed on with the SAE CCS. And while this charging standard is in it's infancy and there are currently very few cars in production that use this standard that is going to change rapidly over the next few years. I see the SAE CCS easily surpassing the Tesla network in the next couple of years.

CHAdeMO is currently the biggest installed DC charging network. And this is mostly because of a few early auto makers (Nissan, Mitsubishi). But I don't know how long they can hold out in this small group.

The SAE J1772 standard (while fairly old) didn't really get any traction until the 2009 version of the standard was released. Now in ~5 years look how many L2 SAE stations exist. While some of these did come from government incentives a large number did not. I foresee a similar thing happening with SAE CCS over the next few years.

 

[saghost]

In some sense I would argue Tesla had to do it this way. They have no choice because they have decided to create a unique charging standard.

The majority of the automotive world has signed on with the SAE CCS. And while this charging standard is in it's infancy and there are currently very few cars in production that use this standard that is going to change rapidly over the next few years. I see the SAE CCS easily surpassing the Tesla network in the next couple of years.

CHAdeMO is currently the biggest installed DC charging network. And this is mostly because of a few early auto makers (Nissan, Mitsubishi). But I don't know how long they can hold out in this small group.

The SAE J1772 standard (while fairly old) didn't really get any traction until the 2009 version of the standard was released. Now in ~5 years look how many L2 SAE stations exist. While some of these did come from government incentives a large number did not. I foresee the same thing happening with SAE CCS over the next few years.

It'll be interesting to see if you're right. I'm thinking the driving economics are a lot different - DCFC involves much higher costs for equipment, installation, and operation, while Tesla's example is going to make it hard to charge much for the service.

 

[Billtphotoman]

I voted stores and restaurants because I think it will actually be gas stations and restaraunts along highways who will do it either to directly charge for use or use it to attract diners. But, sadly I think we are a decade or more away from that unless gas prices really soar.

 

[hvacman]

I voted "oil companies" because I think many will end up at the truck stops and travel centers along the freeways and major highways. Smaller FCDC charge station installations will be a bit more challenging, as AM-PM's aren't where you want to hang out for 30-40 minutes. Many of these facilities are owned or controlled by the major oil companies. It only makes sense that the vehicle refueling/snack/dining model would continue on with long range EV's being another market to tap.

We're not talking hours for FCDC - just 30-40 minutes tops. Dealerships - no way. Not open 24/7, frequently not convenient to out-of-town traffic, and who wants to hang out for even 10 minutes at a dealership?

 

[Neromanceres]

It'll be interesting to see if you're right. I'm thinking the driving economics are a lot different - DCFC involves much higher costs for equipment, installation, and operation, while Tesla's example is going to make it hard to charge much for the service.

I hope I'm right too. But you make a good point DCFC involves a much higher investment than a L2 station. And I certainly don't see as many DCFC stations a L2 stations happening any time soon. But even if we can get 20% as many DCFC stations as L2 that will be pretty good penetration for the near future.

 

[saghost]

I voted "oil companies" because I think many will end up at the truck stops and travel centers along the freeways and major highways.

This makes sense - I could easily see a Pilot travel center (or equivalent) adding a row of DCFC stations on the side and either charging what it costs them or even subsidizing the charging a little bit, making their profit on the food and things bought by the travelers that stop to charge.

I think there are large stretches of highway where there isn't a suitable travel center every hundred miles, but it'd be a start.

 

[tccartier]

I've seen this question posed many times across many articles. The answer is when EV's begin to show up in numbers significant enough for there to be "money" to be made in expanding the infrastructure, That's when the build out will accelerate. As to who will fund the expansion? it will likely be a mix of the above suspects (with the likely exception of government) at a feverish pace, each trying to gain the largest revenue generating footprint.

This is no different than gas station proliferation. The gas powered cars began appearing in such numbers that it became cash flow positive to service the need creating a whole new market. Gasoline cars were at the time a disruptive technology, much like current EV's are likely to become, or already are as viewed by many, myself included.

 

[jsmay311]

There's no way installing DCFC stations will be a profitable venture. So entrepreneurs and oil companies are out. Utilities are probably out too.

In my view, the most likely path forward is a collaboration between multiple car companies, possibly taking advantage of governments incentives.

If Tesla can build out its Supercharger network to a rather impressive degree all by itself in just a few years, then GM+BMW+Ford+whoever else should be able to install a network of industry standard DCFC stations in a similar fashion. However, this assumes that they're actually committed to making "200-mile" EV's work in the marketplace.

 

[Zythryn]

I really am not sure who will be the primary builder in ten years.
Tesla has a few advantages which I would like to see others adopt.
One of these is a nationwide placement plan.

If DC chargers are built by private businesses, dealerships, state/county/city governments, you won't get a useful long ditance DC charging network for quite some time.

The simplicity of a network which does not require payment "at the pump" has lots of advantages and will speed adoption. Nissan's attempt at a single system to allow charging is a good example of what a disaster multiple vendors can be to convenience.

As for the largest DC charging system, by amount of power charged, it is currently Tesla's system and by number of chargers in the US, that is led by Tesla with the CHAdeMO network in second place.

While CHAdeMO and Tesla's network are close in size, even if a 200 mile Leaf existed today, it could not use the 900 or so CHAdeMO chargers to get coast to coast.

 

[tccartier]

There's no way installing DCFC stations will be a profitable venture. So entrepreneurs and oil companies are out. Utilities are probably out too.

Perhaps not in the near future or even several years, But to say they will "NEVER" be profitable? I don't agree. Remember as stations are needed they too will cross a tipping point when economies of scale begin to kick in as the need to have them rises their numbers will increase and their cost is likely to begin to fall as with all "new" technologies or devices hitting the market


In my view, the most likely path forward is a collaboration between multiple car companies, possibly taking advantage of governments incentives.

The Car Manufacturers were not responsible for nor did they finance the build out of the gasoline distribution network as it exists today. They merely built a product that spurred the development of it. This is likely what we will see with EVSE stations once the threshold or tipping point of need makes the investment in charging stations viable or such that it can become cash flow positive in some way over some period of time to the installer.

If Tesla can build out its Supercharger network to a rather impressive degree all by itself in just a few years, then GM+BMW+Ford+whoever else should be able to install a network of industry standard DCFC stations in a similar fashion. However, this assumes that they're actually committed to making "200-mile" EV's work in the marketplace.

I still do not believe they will be inclined to do so nor will they likely need to. Auto manufacturers are not in the business of supplying fueling infrastructure and if they were the incurred costs would need to be frontloaded into the prices of the EV's they sell. Higher EV prices place downward pressure on their uptake in the market "less sales" negating the need for additional infrastructure to be built quickly potentially slowing down the entire adoption process. It's the Chicken or the Egg "you pick".

 

[realdb2]

Tesla has done an excellent job with their network but i don't see other manufacturers having the vision/incentive/foresight to copy them.

I think the most likely solution is gas stations. All it would take is one or two large gas station chains to implement a network of DC fast chargers and the whole country would be covered. Charging would be another way for store owners to attract customers to purchase all of the stuff they make money on (food, beverages, convenience items). That being said I don't think they will do it until plug in vehicles numbers are much, much higher and the cost of implementation is lower.

Power companies sounds logical since they would have the resources to do it but I just don't see them being able to make enough money selling electricity when people will do most of their charging at home.

 

[tccartier]

Tesla has done an excellent job with their network but i don't see other manufacturers having the vision/incentive/foresight to copy them.

I think the most likely solution is gas stations. All it would take is one or two large gas station chains to implement a network of DC fast chargers and the whole country would be covered. Charging would be another way for store owners to attract customers to purchase all of the stuff they make money on (food, beverages, convenience items). That being said I don't think they will do it until plug in vehicles numbers are much, much higher and the cost of implementation is lower.

Power companies sounds logical since they would have the resources to do it but I just don't see them being able to make enough money selling electricity when people will do most of their charging at home.

It does seem that utilities "power companies" specifically and to a somewhat lesser degree "oil companies" are the two entities that have a somewhat vested interest in fueling EV's when they reach sufficient numbers to warrant the effort. What seems clear though is that it will perhaps not happen as fast as I for one would like to see it do so. But history being the guide when there are many millions of EV's on the road if they ever reach those numbers the chargers will get built by some entity or entities in the quantity needed.

A collaboration between Power Companies and Big Oil would make likely bedfellows. The Oil companies already have the national footprint and the Power Companies already have them wired lol!!

Advancement in battery tech will probably get better as well perhaps enabling even longer range EV's with even shorter charge times. We can only hope!

 

[sinnombre]

Initially it will probably need to be done by the automakers . Especially BMW , GM , Ford , Nissan and Tesla . I think they should try to partner with Walmart , Costco , Target and other big box places where people frequently park their cars for 45 minutes at a time . It makes much less sense placing DC chargers where people don't have another reason to park .

 

[SharkVolt]

I think Tesla, by advertising their DC charging capability, and building their charging network, have created an artificial demand, in some people's minds, for fast DC charging a BEV to take long trips.

The vast majority of travelers don't travel that way now, and I bet they wouldn't care to in the near future either. I think BEV vehicles will remain largely city cars for the near future, until BEV ranges are more in the 400-500 mile range. When you can travel for at least four hours and still have a comfortable safety margin, even in bad conditions, then BEVS can and will easily replace ICE cars for the majority of long trips.

And that kind of range will gradually happen over the next decade or two. But I think only Tesla will create their own charging network, because no one knows what other options may still become available, and it is still quite possible that BEVS will never become a popular mode for long distance travel.

No automaker has every been involved with fuel stations, fuel supply, or even the oil business, as far as I know, and the chances any of them would get involved on a completely new, expensive, iffy charging stations, are slim and none. Only the government, in its "infinite wisdom" would even consider doing so, and have the deep pocketbooks (OURS). to do so.

I think when all the hoopla shakes out, only the Voltec technology and copies of it, will be a reasonable choice for long distance travel for the near future. I agree however, that the SAE standard will be the one supported by the rest of the manufacturers eventually, and if Tesla wants to remain viable, they will have to adapt their current network to supply the other prevailing standard, no matter what standard that is, otherwise, they will become the "Betamax" of charging.

 

[Zythryn]

... I agree however, that the SAE standard will be the one supported by the rest of the manufacturers eventually, and if Tesla wants to remain viable, they will have to adapt their current network to supply the other prevailing standard, no matter what standard that is, otherwise, they will become the "Betamax" of charging.

That is certainly possible, however, I hope not.
The Tesla DC charging system is superior to the other standards. For 80 mile BEVs SAE works fine, for 200 or greater ranges Tesla's system currently is the fastest charging, best planned out network. Any other company that wants to, can get in on the deal.
It is also the most convenient to use for consumers, and frankly, the most elegant looking one.

 

[Keith Myers]

I voted the same. I think the oil company affiliated travel centers with food and shower facilities, think "truck stop" here..... are the natural evolution for fast charge, D.C. charging for 30-60 minute stops while long distance traveling. After all.... they have to recover sales from the loss of gasoline and diesel sales some way. It's inevitable that we will electrify the motor vehicle constellation of the last 100 years.

Keith

 

[sinnombre]

No automaker has every been involved with fuel stations, fuel supply, or even the oil business, as far as I know, and the chances any of them would get involved on a completely new, expensive, iffy charging stations, are slim and none.
.

You mean , no automaker other than Nissan and Tesla . They are involved in both fuel stations and energy supply .

 

[Zythryn]

Question for the OP...
Since the DC charging network is already being built by a mix of all of the above, what exactly do you mean?
Who will be the main contributor at a certain date?
Who will build the best network? And as a follow up, how would you define "best"?
Who builds the most sustainable network from a business standpoint?
Etc