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Which traditional auto manufacturers will fail in 2035

  • GM

  • Ford/Mazda

  • Stellantis

  • VW

  • Daimler

  • BMW

  • Toyota

  • Honda

  • Hyundai

  • Subaru

  • Tata

  • Other

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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
It wasn't long ago when companies move their factories to China to take advantage of the labor cost. This is no longer true. The average Chinese annual income is now 351,600 Yuan or $54,408. Coincidentally, Tesla sold 70,000 cars in China last year.

According to all the experts, China is going to dominate the EV car market even without Tesla. So the market will eventually consist of a few Chinese companies and Tesla.

Tesla is poised to take over the Asian market with their Shanghai Giga factory. Similarly, they're also set up to take over Europe with their Berlin Giga factory. Of course they're going to dominate the American market with the Texas Giga factory.
 

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It's fun to speculate but I believe most of these traditional manufacturers (like most modern corporations) are simply too big to outright fail if anything they'll just have to downsize and scale back.
 

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I know Tesla is on the rise, and 70,000 is a good number. GM sold 2.9 million cars in China in 2021, and the same in 2020. Even if GM is driven out of the Asian market, Tesla won't necessarily get all of those sales.

Christian's point is a good one too. I would add that along with downsizing, one or more of the companies above could merge to cut costs. Happens regularly.
 

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It’s been a long time since an automaker has actually failed. They usually end up in dire straits and are then bought out out by another company. AMC got bought out by Chrysler, Chrysler got bought out by Daimler and then Stellantis. Probably the last one to actually fail was Studebaker back in the early’60’s.
 
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Rivian :p
 
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It wasn't long ago when companies move their factories to China to take advantage of the labor cost. This is no longer true. The average Chinese annual income is now 351,600 Yuan or $54,408. Coincidentally, Tesla sold 70,000 cars in China last year.

According to all the experts, China is going to dominate the EV car market even without Tesla. So the market will eventually consist of a few Chinese companies and Tesla.

Tesla is poised to take over the Asian market with their Shanghai Giga factory. Similarly, they're also set up to take over Europe with their Berlin Giga factory. Of course they're going to dominate the American market with the Texas Giga factory.
That's closer to the US average annual income than the Chinese one. There are various estimates of the figure, but Chinese average annual income is closer to $10,000. It's a huge country, so in the aggregate it has a lot of resources to leverage, and it's also growing, but it's a long way from having per capita wealth at US levels, at which point its GDP will be vastly bigger than the United States, because it has a far larger population. Today, the US still has a bigger GDP despite having a far smaller population.
 

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It wasn't long ago when companies move their factories to China to take advantage of the labor cost. This is no longer true. The average Chinese annual income is now 351,600 Yuan or $54,408.
Averages are TERRIBLE for things like prices or incomes where there's no reasonable upper bound and a lot of clustering.

The average of incomes 20k, 20k, 20k, 20k, 20k, and 1,000,000 is about 183k, but that sure ain't representative of the typical income of the six.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
When I say EVs are expensive I keep hearing "well the average price of a new car is $47K....etc."
But people with average income doesn't buy average price car. They buy $30K-$35K cars. which is equivalent to an average loan payment of $644. Given the fact that average buyer takes out a loan on their vehicle. Most people don't plop down $15K to reduce their $865 a month car payment into $644 a month car payment.

Unless EV prices reduce to the price of a Chevy Bolt or a Nissan Leaf people will continue to keep driving their old ICE vehicle.
 

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Of that list I think Daimler is most likely to fail. Not on the list I see Mitsubishi failing. Toyota and Honda are also at risk given that they aren't seriously pursuing BEVs.
 
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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Of that list I think Daimler is most likely to fail. Not on the list I see Mitsubishi failing. Toyota and Honda are also at risk given that they aren't seriously pursuing BEVs.
I thought Mitsubishi already failed as an ICE vehicle company. 🤣

They do make great split unit air conditioners. Maybe they should stick to that.
 
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