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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
They won't ever need to push the panic button, as there is no need to panic!
WHAT?! Bad News Bro is posting something semi-positive about Tesla?? Can it really be true?

Of course not! The reason Model 3 reservation holders don't need to ever push the big red panic button is because there's no need to due to vehicles such as a Chevy Bolt EV being widely available! :cool:

“That’s people with $1,000 out of their pockets, so you’re talking tens of thousands of people who might be basing that car purchase on how fast their Model 3 will be ready,” says Karl Brauer, executive publisher at Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book.

“If you’re just looking for a functional, inexpensive EV, there are plenty of (Chevy) Bolts on the lot at attractive lease deals," he says.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...tesla-model-3-order-dont-panic-yet/770100001/

Now if you are a reservation holder who is also eye deep in TSLA shares that is locked in for the long haul? Here you go:

https://www.amazon.com/Prank-Panic-...8&qid=1508411721&sr=8-4&keywords=panic+button
 

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These reservations holders are not looking for a 'functional, inexpensive EV". They want a Tesla and nothing but a Tesla.

Bolt IS NOT a direct competitor to Model 3 no matter what these extremely ill-informed financial types post. A Cruze is not direct competition to a 328i in the same way.

I don't see anybody pushing any panic button even if the gloom and doom in this article occurs. Tesla has at least until mid-2018 to get it together. My prediction (with no evidence whatsoever except Tesla past performance) is that they will ship Model 3 in volume to non-NDA customers starting 2nd quarter 2018. 'In volume' meaning >5000 per month. Bolt will never achieve that kind of volume since it is a US only car at this point.

If they style the lump-of-clay nose of the Model 3, I might consider one to replace my ELR. ELR is kind of gaudy, but, at least it looks like a finished car.
 

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I'm pleased with the level of Bolt sales, given it's going up against the general excitement around the Model 3. People who thought no one would buy the Bolt because of the Model 3 were wrong.

GM could be selling twice as many Bolts in Canada if they felt like sending them here.

The two cars are competitors to some extent the low end of the Model 3 range. Not at the high end, which I'm sure is going to comprise the vast majority of Model 3 sales.
 

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I believe in the concept of the Model 3, so I will hold onto my reservation as long as it's remotely viable even if I lose $1000.

If I wanted a 'Tesla' for the image, I'd already have one or more.
 

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I think that people that want a Tesla will be disappointed in what they get. Yes the cars look good and are fast, but they are the new Jaguar- the cars are poorly assembled and have many issues. That combined with a very limited dealer network spells heartburn.

The Model 3 is being rushed into production. They did "virtual" beta quals. Tesla thinks they are Apple and trying to make their cars like iphones. They haven't made any money selling cars- like other Silicon Valley Companies they are pitching "vapor ware"- good in the computer game, not in the car game.

I hope most people have leased their $140K car because they will be worthless in 5 years. Also they are heavily invested in their battery factory. What happens when a new battery tech comes along. The other real automakers are letting 3rd parties bear the investment in battery tech.
 

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Tesla hasn't made any money because they are spending money to develop future cars. They might not be profitable for many years. However, they are growing their value as a company.

From most other companies I would expect what you say, pitching vaporware. Not from Tesla. Elon said he would land reusable rocket first stages. Everyone laughed. Now he launches more rockets than Russia and the US, and at a lower cost. I guarantee that BMW, Mercedes, et al were laughing at the idea of a $100k luxury electric car. They aren't laughing any more. Proof of this is how long it is taking for them to respond. They didn't really realize it until the success of the Model 3 reservations. It will be 2019 or so before the competition really hits the field (Bolt EV only competes on range, nothing else).

Speaking of resale value, the Model S and X are far better than the Volt. It is much more like a normal car. Anyone buying a $140k car is going to expect heavy depreciation, the Model S isn't that bad. My guess is the Model 3 will hold its value much better than say a Bolt EV. It is more desirable.

I am no Tesla fan boy, I am about equally invested in Tesla, GM, and VW, but I am very aware of the disruption they are bringing to the industry.
 

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These reservations holders are not looking for a 'functional, inexpensive EV". They want a Tesla and nothing but a Tesla.

Bolt IS NOT a direct competitor to Model 3 .....
Right, they want the Name Brand, which has a mystique, for some reason and without any advertising.

But people keep saying they are "Not direct competitors". ??

Name any other +200 mile BEV in that price range?

>One is a RWD sedan. Slightly faster, slightly less range and, if you pay the price, access to the SC network.

>One is a FWD hatchback. Slightly slower, slightly longer range and with access to a growing-by-the-day CCS network.

And one can be purchased almost anywhere with a dealership network that is close to you NOW.
 

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Why do folks not planning on buying a M3 or buy shares even concerned about this?
 

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It's more than just the car. If Tesla made the Bolt and GM the Model 3, people would be all excited about the Bolt.
I disagree, Tesla would know not to make a Bolt EV expecting high volume sales. Although Tesla marketing goes a long ways, they still had to have a marketable car, and the Bolt EV is not what they would go for. GM knows very well that the Bolt EV would never sell more than what it is in the US for the price it is. I expect to see small SUVs on the same platform soon. It looks like Kia has the Kona coming (with possibly the same 64 kwh battery and 200 hp motor) and GM has their Buick model coming next year (I imagine they show it soon).

GM went cautious with the Bolt EV, not ordering too many batteries, etc. They will market it enough to sell all they ordered parts for, and discount accordingly, but I guarantee their next EV will be more marketable now that they see it can be successful. My only fear is they don't have a good network of chargers so I would buy a Tesla anyway if it were my only vehicle. The closest CCS charger to me is barely in range of the Bolt EV, and they are concentrated in urban areas where I don't need them. We need some along roadways every 50 miles or so in order to make driving longer distances less stressful. I suppose we need faster chargers first, like 100 kw on up, but they are coming. I think GM should invest in some.
 

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Tesla hasn't made any money because they are spending money to develop future cars.
I agree with the rest of what you said but not this part. I think they haven't made any money because they're horribly managed and inefficient. Because they're in this rapid growth phase they may be able to get away with that, and be given enough time to sort it out.
 

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I agree with the rest of what you said but not this part. I think they haven't made any money because they're horribly managed and inefficient. Because they're in this rapid growth phase they may be able to get away with that, and be given enough time to sort it out.
That is hard to quantify, the Model S and X have high gross margins and the Model 3 is expected to as well. I think most of it has to do with needing to spend $3.5B (about half of last years total revenue) to ramp up for Model 3 production, etc.

If you sell 100,000 vehicles average $100,000 each, that is about $10B in revenue, but they cost say $7.5B to make, add in that $3.5B for the Model 3 ramp, more for Tesla Semi, Model S/X updates, and you can see without any management efficiency you are still very negative.

Next year it will be more of the same. They will have the revenue from the Model 3, but will be spending that to ramp Model 3 even more and then of course Model Y, more with the Semi, Solar, etc. These are obviously napkin calculations, but give an idea.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 · (Edited)
I agree with the rest of what you said but not this part. I think they haven't made any money because they're horribly managed and inefficient. Because they're in this rapid growth phase they may be able to get away with that, and be given enough time to sort it out.
Musk has said multiple times that the Model 3 is going to make or break the company. Last year he told investors that he was shooting for production of 100k-200k Model 3s in the 2nd half of 2017. 200k Model 3's sold at the $42k average sale price he forecasted is $8.4 BILLION dollars. Now we have estimates from Oppenheimer, who had dinner with Tesla execs just a few days ago, say they expect only 3,005 Model 3 deliveries this year, or $126 million in sales. $8.4 BILLION versus $126 MILLION....little difference there.

Let's say Elon only realistically expected the lower 100k production figure to be reached. That's still $4.2 BILLION in capital that they won't come close to achieving. Now combine that with the the self-proclaimed "production hell", continued suppression of Model 3 details, reports of C-suite personnel resigning left and right, mass employee firings, blaming of suppliers for production woes, and even accusations of racial discrimination at the Fremont factory, and you have 8 columns of black smoke coming from Tesla HQ. No wonder they are now in penny pinching mode (such as canxing the free long distance Supercharging Elon said Model 3 owners would get).

Is there a fire? Sure as "hell" seems like it. But Tesla keeps saying things to assuage investors so they don't start bailing. Every move from Tesla these days seems aimed squarely at keeping the stock valuation inflated. The deceptive actions of Elon and Tesla (telling customers and the press one thing, then investors another. See the "no fundamental issues with supply chain/we're firing suppliers" double speak for a prime example) is frankly disturbing. The character from The Simpsons that promised to build a monorail for the city keeps popping into my brain.

Elon needs to quit with the dog and pony show maneuvers and start being more upfront with customers and investors. If he can't, someone else that can should be installed as CEO.
 

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These reservations holders are not looking for a 'functional, inexpensive EV". They want a Tesla and nothing but a Tesla.
I agree the Bolt and Model 3 are two very different approaches to a long range, budget priced EV, but I also feel that not all those on the M3 waiting list are solidly there. The longer the delays occur, the more time the good word gets out on the Bolt - there will be defectors. Especially if the price of the Model 3 creeps upward as production reality and profit reality becomes more clear at Tesla.

There is also the specter of new EV products making surprise debuts as did the Bolt. Some of which may have attractive styling along with performance and utility.

It's too early to tell. I don't think Tesla will collapse out of mass defections however, at least right away.
 

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Musk has said multiple times that the Model 3 is going to make or break the company. Last year he told investors that he was shooting for production of 100k-200k Model 3s in the 2nd half of 2017. 200k Model 3's sold at the $42k average sale price he forecasted is $8.4 BILLION dollars. Now we have estimates from Oppenheimer, who had dinner with Tesla execs just a few days ago, say they expect only 3,005 Model 3 deliveries this year, or $126 million in sales. $8.4 BILLION versus $126 MILLION....little difference there.
They still have the demand for the 3, the only thing that could hurt Tesla at this point is if demand for the 3 would drop off. Elon wanted to produce 100 to 200k cars by year end, not that they actually would. If the curves moves out a couple months I don't think investors will really care. The point is, the billions of dollars are coming, just a couple months later.
 

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Bolt IS NOT a direct competitor to Model 3 no matter what these extremely ill-informed financial types post. A Cruze is not direct competition to a 328i in the same way.
I don't necessarily agree with these analogies because the cruze and 3 series aren't the only two 4 door, 4 cylinder compact vehicles on the market; that's an entire class. Right now there are only two 200+ EV's in the 35-45k price range so (just about) everyone shopping BEV's in that price range is going to compare their pluses and minuses.
 

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I don't necessarily agree with these analogies because the cruze and 3 series aren't the only two four door, 4 cylinder compact vehicles on the market; that's an entire class. Right now there are only two 200+ EV's in the 35-45k price range so (just about) everyone shopping in that price range is going to compare their pluses and minuses.
The only thing they compete on is range, so people buying an EV only for range might cross shop the two, but people are buying the Tesla for factors other than range. I think the sales of the Bolt EV are making that clear. If people were only buying the Tesla because of range, the Bolt EV would not be sitting on lots.
 

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Why do folks not planning on buying a M3 or buy shares even concerned about this?
Good question.
It's like questioning/saving a friend or coworker from a fad/mystique they are "Totally" into for no factual reasons.
I'm trying to think of an analogy... the Atkins Diet?? (Not veganism. That's real!)

Only with this mystique you have nothing but positive, glowing press everywhere and not much counter-point.
Seems like everyone is onboard.
This man can do no wrong.
This man accomplishes SO MUCH.

He co-founded Paypal just when it was needed.
Made a ton.
Then had fun buying top notch engineers in Aerospace, EV car design, and now Li-ion battery and solar cell installation.
 

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The only thing they compete on is range, so people buying an EV only for range might cross shop the two, but people are buying the Tesla for factors other than range.
Well what you're saying, sort of, goes without saying because you're referring to fanboys and yes they will never cross shop. I was speaking more to the average consumer and should have made that more clear. We all know Raymond will never buy a Prius and, evidently, bro will never buy a Tesla. LOL

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a more upscale Bolt trim in 2019 with full ACC, better interior, etc., to better compete with the 3; maybe even as a Buick model others have spoken about. Also, by the time Teslas starts making Model 3's in the $35k base form, they should be out of credits. Unless things change by then but that's highly doubtful after Elon publicly quit one of Trumps' industry councils; a man who holds a grudge and doesn't forget. <not trying to turn this political>
 
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