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GM's EV game plan is pretty much what it was back in 2017 I think. Remember, that's also when GM announced that 2019 would be the last year for the Volt, something many seemed to ignore, forget or hoped would not happen.

GM's recent sedan and plant killing announcement made a point of saying they would be focusing their investments on EV's and autonomy. Of course, whatever they are doing is not fast enough for many EC enthusiasts. Having seen (and driven) the future, we want more, faster of course.

Assuming GM and Ford etc. don't already have a plan to address the SUV and truck markets with EV's (and even if they do), having upstarts like Rivian and Tesla going after their now narrowed product range should concern them and prompt them to respond. The Japanese came into the US with their small sedans what, back in the 70's and GM et. al. arrogantly (?) ignored or simply underestimated them. Flash forward 48 years and GM is essentially ceding the sedan market to Toyota, Honda, VW, Hyundai, etc. They are retreating to their Alamo: SUV's and trucks.


If they repeat the mistake made in the 70's and ignore the threat of EV SUV's and trucks to their market share, they may end up repeating history. This time perhaps with Rivian, Via, Tesla, VW and others being the spoilers.


However, we also know that GM does have 20-some new EV's coming out over the next 2-5 years. They previously announced 2 new crossover EVs based on the Bolt EV platform (one is certainly the Cruise AV in late 2019 the other probably a Buick).

Based on previous statements by GM or those at analyst or invite-only events, those two crossovers will be followed by 18 more EV's based on new platforms. The 18 will reportedly consist of more crossovers, a sedan, some minivans, a sports car, and SUVs. Nothing about a truck has yet been announced or rumored.

So starting late 2019 and continuing through 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 will see see the rollout of new GM EV's.

What we don't yet know is anything more specific, like where in the world these will be sold. Some in North America to be sure. And it's not much of a bet to say that some will be in China too.

We also don't know if the Voltec drivetrain will reappear in a large truck or SUV, or whether BEV's will be the sole focus as they are less complicated and batteries are getting better and cheaper as the years roll by.

While the Volt may be gone after March 2019, after a lull of 6 months or so I expect to see a variety of new EV's coming from GM (and others). The early 2020's will see a bunch of new EV's if the car manufacturers press releases hold true.

And if oil prices spike up at some point, there will be even more interest in EV's.
 

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Seems to me like maybe the Koreans may be the most immediate threat to whatever GM may bring. What's really going to be interesting to watch is what happens to the incentive programs, both on a State and Federal level.
 

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GM has made it very clear that they have no immediate plans for EV trucks. I hope that changes, but the soonest it could based on statements by Mary Barra and Mike Abelson is at least a decade.

As for what their EV plan is now, I think it's waiting on NMC 8:1:1 batteries (unless they are sitting on solid-state batteries that no one knows about). A 50% reduction in cobalt would match pretty closely with Barra's claim of $100/kWh battery cell prices. It would also likely result in the 30-40% increase in energy density that would explain GM engineers claiming that the Bolt EV they were testing had been "driven for hours" and still had "over 200 miles of range left."

My guess is that they are waiting for January to unveil some of their MY 2020 vehicles, possibly including a refreshed Bolt EV with over 300 miles of range. The biggest problem they have right now is timing. The step down of the Federal Tax Credit in March of 2019 is creating a scarcity drive for current Bolt EV and Volt models (the cancelling of the Volt further feeds that). If they unveil new EV products between now and March that completely eclipse their current offerings, it could jeopardize those short-term sales.
 

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Discussion Starter #4 (Edited)
The biggest problem they have right now is timing. The step down of the Federal Tax Credit in March of 2019 is creating a scarcity drive for current Bolt EV and Volt models (the cancelling of the Volt further feeds that). If they unveil new EV products between now and March that completely eclipse their current offerings, it could jeopardize those short-term sales.

Which is why, in another thread, I suggest Mary could be gaming Trump with the OH Cruze plant closure, or at least thinking there could be a plan B: trade keeping the plant open for a renewed EV tax credit plan.

On the other hand, I think she's serious about the plant closings and avoiding another GM crisis when the auto market inevitably crashes again and people stop buying the $100K gilded pigs of gasoline trucks and SUV's. All it would take is another stock market/economic crises, and/or a long term spike in oil prices caused by war or other things. The trade war is already starting to pinch. GM and Ford both noted their steel and aluminum costs increased by about $1B each. They are not the only ones feeling the pinch.
 

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I think Steverino pretty much summed up what we know now and some recent history pretty well.

When I talk to some folks about EV's, they say, well I have to tow my trailer (they always offer this on their own, I am not suggesting they drive an EV, the last one I heard was a small trailer too, one that an SUV could pull), and then they say, so I can't consider and EV. Then I remind them, that EV is a drive train, not a chassis, and that trucks are coming and other chassis like SUV's are already here and more are coming soon. They seem to be surprised, like they assumed an EV was a small car like a Prius.

From my point of view, not addressing trucks would be a huge mistake.
Because if the EV drive train happens, then it stands to reason, it will be in trucks as well as other chassis.
 

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I think Steverino pretty much summed up what we know now and some recent history pretty well.

When I talk to some folks about EV's, they say, well I have to tow my trailer (they always offer this on their own, I am not suggesting they drive an EV, the last one I heard was a small trailer too, one that an SUV could pull), and then they say, so I can't consider and EV. Then I remind them, that EV is a drive train, not a chassis, and that trucks are coming and other chassis like SUV's are already here and more are coming soon. They seem to be surprised, like they assumed an EV was a small car like a Prius.

From my point of view, not addressing trucks would be a huge mistake.
Because if the EV drive train happens, then it stands to reason, it will be in trucks as well as other chassis.
You are so right. They must address the need for EV trucks.....they are currently the mainstay of the US market. The modern truck can fulfill many different roles from workhorse hauler to luxury family hauler and in many cases it is so useful that it can serve as the only vehicle needed. I would have kept my 02 F150 Supercrew had it not been for my desire to try and get away from 16 mpg and the expense of feeding that truck. I found that by using a small utility trailer I can still do trucklike duty with my Volt and get awesome mileage on trips, even hauling a small sport trailer with my kayaks and paddleboards. BUT, I would surely consider going back to a capable truck if it was a pure EV with the necessary range and power. I just don't want to have to own multiple vehicles to meet my needs. SUV's are so popular for many folks because they can "double-duty" as well.
 

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Thanks for that reminder, Steverino. Someone tell all those journalists that published their stories last week.

Anyhow, the problem for GM and Ford etc., is that if this is like the 70s, and if Tesla and others like Rivian are going to disrupt the SUV/Truck/CUV markets in the near future, GM and Ford have to get their act together right quick. Consumers are fickle. I bought my very first GM product, after 40 years. I loved my Volt, and strongly considered a Bolt, but I needed something with a bit more range and a charging network that was as easy and quick to use as gas.

My Tesla Model 3 is in Boston and awaiting a car carrier to deliver it to me in Maine. GM missed their chance to sell me a Bolt, because it needed more range and/or a better/faster charging network. For me to make my normal trip to Boston, 330+ miles, in my Volt, I have to stop twice for gas, once before I go to fill up, and once afterward, to refill. Along the way, I also stop at the Kennebunk, Maine rest stops on I95, for coffee and a toilet break. Takes 10 minutes. That's my routine for 40 years of driving.

With a Model 3, I can do the trip without changing my routine, because the Kennebunk rest stops have Superchargers. I only need to fill 9 mins going South, and 8 mins going North. Since I normally take 10 min breaks, the charging time is totally covered. I don't have to change my routine at all, in fact, I save myself 2 trips to the gas station.

With a Bolt, I can do the same trip, but the charging will take 1h and 17mins. That's a whole hour longer than the Model 3, because the DCFC are slower 50kw ones, not 120kw superchargers, and the Bolt charge ramp is very conservative, not to mention the battery is smaller so that the usable part from 20% to 80% is smaller. That all leads to more charging and slower charging and more time sitting around. Not to mention that the DCFC infrastructure is not at all well-built out, so that I have to leave I95 to find one. With the Model 3, the superchargers are at the I95 rest stops. I never leave the interstate. I like the Bolt, but it's a total non-starter for me, given the charging infrastructure shortcomings. I considered the Tesla 3yrs ago, instead of the Volt, but it was impractical back then for the same reason. The charging infrastructure has improved considerably. The Kennebunk superchargers only opened this Summer. Makes all the difference.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
They must address the need for EV trucks.....they are currently the mainstay of the US market.
And this is where I can see the Voltec being very useful. People are already paying nose bleed amounts for trucks and big SUV's with all kinds of expensive add-ons, why not a Voltec system? It would deliver much better mileage for short trips, and you'd still have the piston power train for everything else. Fantastic fuel economy for shorter trips, and piston power for the rest. Best of both worlds, just like the Volt. And perhaps one of those 20 new EV's GM is being tight lipped about will be a SUV using a Voltec system.

Meanwhile, others are aiming at the truck and SUV market with EV's. It's small potatoes at the moment, but that can change.

I suppose GM could decide to jump in after others invest the money in developing the market and showing it's potential. Maybe they don't feel the need to be the leader, that the can jump in when they feel the time is right. After all they do have the technical experience to do so.
 

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GM missed their chance to sell me a Bolt, because it needed more range and/or a better/faster charging network.
I'm sure Mary Barra is losing sleep over that.

If those are your standards, fine. No one other than Tesla would meet your current expectations. Of course, that still requires you to pay many thousands more for the privilege of waiting two and a half years for a Model 3.
 

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I'm sure Mary Barra is losing sleep over that.

If those are your standards, fine. No one other than Tesla would meet your current expectations. Of course, that still requires you to pay many thousands more for the privilege of waiting two and a half years for a Model 3.
It seems a lot of people have higher expectations. Hard to ignore the numbers.

 

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Which is why, in another thread, I suggest Mary could be gaming Trump with the OH Cruze plant closure, or at least thinking there could be a plan B: trade keeping the plant open for a renewed EV tax credit plan.
However there are multiple locations where workers and communities will be hurt that will want resolutions. Unclear that 4 of 5 of the other places will be quite if one gets saved.

Factories that could be closed include
assembly plants in
1) Detroit and
2) Oshawa, Ontario, and
3) Lordstown, Ohio, as well as
transmission plants in
4) Warren, Mich., and near
5) Baltimore.
Via: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/ct-biz-gm-plant-closing-restructuring-20181126-story.html
The Detroit-based automaker said it would end production by the end of 2019 at its
i) Lordstown Assembly plant in northeast Ohio, its
ii) Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly plant in southeast Michigan, its
iii) Oshawa Assembly plant in Ontario, its
iv) Baltimore Operations parts plant in Maryland and its
v) Warren Transmission Operations plant in southeast Michigan.
Via: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2018/11/26/gm-general-motors-plant-closures-job-cuts/2113275002/
____________________________________________________

So starting late 2019 and continuing through 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 will see see the rollout of new GM EV's.
GM buyers will receive
$3,750 starting Apr 2019, or
$1,875 starting Oct 2019.
That does not work well with GMs above planning.

And by comparison to the when the other companies may end their tax credit.


Via: http://evadoption.com/ev-sales/federal-ev-tax-credit-phase-out-tracker-by-automaker/
 

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It seems a lot of people have higher expectations. Hard to ignore the numbers.
Man, you don't give up, do you? So you're just going to continue to pretend that a large percentage of GM's Bolt EV production wasn't sold overseas? Sometimes you make a point, but sometimes the point makes you.

The bottom line is, GM is selling every single Bolt EV they make, and they continue to have wait lists, despite increasing production output multiple times. Their biggest bottleneck seems to be battery availability, so if you want to prove that Tesla is superior to GM, just reference the Gigafactory. That is Tesla's only real advantage over the competition at this point, but it buys them, what... A year? Two years tops?
 

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I considered a Kia Soul EV before I looked at the Volt. The Volt has extended range. The Soul I would have to leave at home when I went from Dallas to Austin.
 

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Just read an article on the LA car show 2018. It said there were 100 models of EV's shown. The US government is going to have to either end or extend the $7,500 tax credit. There is no way they are going to give that advantage to foreign EV makers and not to their own even if some of those EVs are made in the US, especially with Trump in the Whitehouse.
 

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Hopefully we will have a better idea of the future after Mary meets with Congress this coming week. (now would be a very good time
for her to lobby for an extension of that EV incentive and then perhaps at least reveal 1 new addition to the EV family :).......
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Just read an article on the LA car show 2018. It said there were 100 models of EV's shown. The US government is going to have to either end or extend the $7,500 tax credit. There is no way they are going to give that advantage to foreign EV makers and not to their own even if some of those EVs are made in the US, especially with Trump in the Whitehouse.
Providing a $7500 tax credit advantage to "foreign" car makers seems to go against the America First rhetoric. But shutting down manufacturing jobs also goes against promises made by the president. So a solution could be keep some plants open in exchange for a new tac credit plan.

Regardless, GM knew the tax credit would be gone when they announced their 20 new EV's. So I don't think the new EV plans are dependent on tax credits being available. I'm sure GM would prefer the full $7500 were available, hence the recent coalition to request an extension.

The hint that one of the new EV's will be a sports car makes me wonder whether this could be an EV based on a Corvette or Camaro? Or might it be something new like the TRU 140S concept?

 

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...... Or might it be something new like the TRU 140S concept?
I'd buy that in a heartbeat, which is why I'm fairly sure it won't happen. GM hasn't the moxy. Here's another GM concept that'll never see the road, according to GM:



I'd pay stupid money for either one.
 

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I'd buy that in a heartbeat, which is why I'm fairly sure it won't happen. GM hasn't the moxy. Here's another GM concept that'll never see the road, according to GM:


I'd pay stupid money for either one.

Why is it that so many car companies (including GM) will show concept cars that excite people (car porn) and then deliver ho-hum styling on production models? I just don't get it. The designers are showing they can create a car that is sexy, and then someone up the chain says, nope, too good, make it plain jane?

Here's hoping that GM gives their designers the freedom to be bolder on production models (but not "Aztec bold", lol).

GM's future EV plans also are said to include a mini-van or two? Now THAT sounds like it will be very sexy, lol. My guess is that it may not be for North America, but who knows?


Some have said the Traverse is GM's answer to the minivan. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davesullivan/2017/08/22/chevrolets-minivan-surrogate-improves-but-misses-key-safety-content/#776818f8732a

A Traverse EV or EREV?
 

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Why is it that so many car companies (including GM) will show concept cars that excite people (car porn) and then deliver ho-hum styling on production models? I just don't get it. The designers are showing they can create a car that is sexy, and then someone up the chain says, nope, too good, make it plain jane?

Here's hoping that GM gives their designers the freedom to be bolder on production models (but not "Aztec bold", lol).
They did it once recently.

Converg:



ELR:



I was really proud of them for doing it. Not proud enough to drop $80K on one (not enough range for openers), but maybe next time.

A TRU 140S EV (AKA "Jolt") doesn't have to cost $80K does it?

http://www.chevyjoltev.com/
 
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