What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World
1 - 19 of 19 Posts
Joined
·
499 Posts
There are many reports like this being published now. Forecast is for more disruption. Society is moving from irrational rejection to reluctant acceptance. Ninety-nine percent of vehicles sold today are ICE. Many of these will still be on the road in 20 years and there will still be ICE vehicles sold in those 20 years. I wouldn't predict the demise of gas stations or repair shops in the future. You can still find plenty of folks to repair a '55 Chevy.
In the hundred years since the US hit "peak horse" there are still almost half that number of horses in the US today.
In the hundred years since the US hit "peak horse" there are still almost half that number of horses in the US today.
Joined
·
10,014 Posts
This article is not vetted against reality. Yet again. It perpetrates many myths about EV ownership.
"Electric cars will go mainstream when the cost of the powertrain — the motor and other guts that make the vehicle move — is the same as owning cars that burn gasoline or diesel. "
Wrong. When the TOTAL cost of ownership (TCO) is equivalent, ICE is toast. TCO includes fuel and maintenance which are much lower for an EV than an ICE. We are at parity now for some cars such as Leaf and Bolt. It could even be argued that Model S is lower TCO than an equivalent ICE luxury car. TAAS (Transportation as a Service) will make ownership obsolete overnight.
"Even when people can buy an electric car for the same price or less than a gasoline model, they face another problem: where to plug it in. And they won’t want to wait all day for the car to recharge."
Not true for a lot (more than half?) of people driving EVs and probably > half of the rest of the population. For a >200mi range EV, most people wouldn't have to charge but once a week. (I only drive 100mi/week unless on vacation.) And most people (75%?) have readily accessible electricity to charge over night while they are sleeping.
"At the moment, a cross-country drive in an electric car is an adventure."
Another mis-intrepretion of reality. People don't drive cross-country. Ever. At best, they drive several hundred miles to get to grandma's on holidays (once a year?) Once EVs are > 400mi nominal range (next gen will be), ya won't need intermediate charging to make it there. Most round trips on the same day already don't require intermediate charging.
"The transition will be painful for traditional carmakers and suppliers, potentially even catastrophic."
Untrue. There is time to adapt (although very little time left). Building motors and battery packs is pretty much the same robotics that build engines and transmissions. (You think engines are hand-assembled by humans? Not for a decade at least.) Building the rest of the car is exactly the same. GM builds EVs and ICE cars on the same assembly line.
"Governments will lose fuel tax revenues.".
So what? Governments figure out a way to squeeze their constituents no matter what they buy.
"Filling stations and auto repair shops will go out of business. "
So what? We don't need farriers and buggy whips any more either. Auto repair is pretty much identical. It's just that EVs don't break as much unless they crash. All repair I have had on my EV have nothing to do with the EV bits. Shifter, chrome, radio, glass, wheels/tires, detailing, etc. are all the same.
"But the automakers’ existing expertise — building internal combustion engines — will no longer give them a competitive edge.
“They are losing a lot of their intellectual capital,”"
GM files hundreds of patents every year that they never use. Losing expertise in building engines over motors is not a big loss. At this point, ICE doesn't really have any internal IP except marketing (like HEMI). There are not many different ways to build an ICE any more. That ship sailed when GM started putting Chevy engines in Oldsmobiles.
"Electric cars will go mainstream when the cost of the powertrain — the motor and other guts that make the vehicle move — is the same as owning cars that burn gasoline or diesel. "
Wrong. When the TOTAL cost of ownership (TCO) is equivalent, ICE is toast. TCO includes fuel and maintenance which are much lower for an EV than an ICE. We are at parity now for some cars such as Leaf and Bolt. It could even be argued that Model S is lower TCO than an equivalent ICE luxury car. TAAS (Transportation as a Service) will make ownership obsolete overnight.
"Even when people can buy an electric car for the same price or less than a gasoline model, they face another problem: where to plug it in. And they won’t want to wait all day for the car to recharge."
Not true for a lot (more than half?) of people driving EVs and probably > half of the rest of the population. For a >200mi range EV, most people wouldn't have to charge but once a week. (I only drive 100mi/week unless on vacation.) And most people (75%?) have readily accessible electricity to charge over night while they are sleeping.
"At the moment, a cross-country drive in an electric car is an adventure."
Another mis-intrepretion of reality. People don't drive cross-country. Ever. At best, they drive several hundred miles to get to grandma's on holidays (once a year?) Once EVs are > 400mi nominal range (next gen will be), ya won't need intermediate charging to make it there. Most round trips on the same day already don't require intermediate charging.
"The transition will be painful for traditional carmakers and suppliers, potentially even catastrophic."
Untrue. There is time to adapt (although very little time left). Building motors and battery packs is pretty much the same robotics that build engines and transmissions. (You think engines are hand-assembled by humans? Not for a decade at least.) Building the rest of the car is exactly the same. GM builds EVs and ICE cars on the same assembly line.
"Governments will lose fuel tax revenues.".
So what? Governments figure out a way to squeeze their constituents no matter what they buy.
"Filling stations and auto repair shops will go out of business. "
So what? We don't need farriers and buggy whips any more either. Auto repair is pretty much identical. It's just that EVs don't break as much unless they crash. All repair I have had on my EV have nothing to do with the EV bits. Shifter, chrome, radio, glass, wheels/tires, detailing, etc. are all the same.
"But the automakers’ existing expertise — building internal combustion engines — will no longer give them a competitive edge.
“They are losing a lot of their intellectual capital,”"
GM files hundreds of patents every year that they never use. Losing expertise in building engines over motors is not a big loss. At this point, ICE doesn't really have any internal IP except marketing (like HEMI). There are not many different ways to build an ICE any more. That ship sailed when GM started putting Chevy engines in Oldsmobiles.
Joined
·
2,179 Posts
Pretty simple...charging speeds equal to fueling a car with the availability of gas stations. That with comparable costs to good old gasoline and you have a recipe to answer your title.
Joined
·
10,014 Posts
Lol. Peak horse.
Joined
·
10,014 Posts
For most people, the switch to home charging takes care of it. Electricity is WAY lower price per mile than gasoline already.
Joined
·
432 Posts
This article discusses what has to happen for battery EVs to become the major form of transportation. The problem with this is a better solution exists, and it is probably sitting in your driveway. Extended range hybrid technology such as in your Volt would mitigate or resolve many of this issues discussed in the article. Here´s is list of issues discussed and the reasons why an extended range hybrid (ERH) would work better.
(1) The cost of building motors and components will have to continue to decrease. The current estimated price of an EV powertrain is $16,000 compared to $6,000 for a conventional car. If for example, the cost of the conventional car powertrain breaks down to $4,000 for the ICE and supporting infrastructure like exhaust, radiator and fuel tank. Plus $2,000 for the automatic transmission. What is the cost bogy for an ERH? In the case of the Volt, the Voltec transmission is about the same as a conventional automatic transmission, so the cost bogy is the ICE, or about $4,000. This cost difference has to be contrasted to the cost of the powertrain in the pure EV. The major bits being the motor, inverter, charging electronics and large battery. The ERH has all the same components but the battery used in an ERH is much smaller. So the major cost factor of a pure EV over an ERH is the larger battery. Todays EVs have 60 KWH batteries and range around 250 miles. An ERH with a 15 KWH battery has an AER of about 50 miles. But it is important to understand that 50 miles is enough range to satisfy about 90% of an ordinary person´s driving. What about the other 10%, we will discuss that later. That extra 45 KWHs of battery have costs, first the battery itself and then the additional weight and size has also to be accommodated. GM estimates battery cost will fall to $150/KWH soon. So the raw cost of the additional 45 KWHs of battery is $6750. I am assuming that the battery support infrastructure such as cooling and inverters is the same for both. This cost difference already overcomes the estimated $4,000 cost bogy of the ERH over a pure battery EV. Conclusion, an ERH like the Volt is an EV, drives like an EV but costs less than a pure EV.
(2) There must be a steady, affordable supply of the resources required to make batteries. Yes, but this problem is greatly mitigated if the battery used is only 1/4 the size such as in the ERH.
(3) More charging stations will need to be built, and they´ll need to charge faster. An ERH, like a pure EV can be charged overnight at home and get enough charge to handle most daily commute requirements. This means about 10% of the trips require energy from a source other than home power. The ERH does this by simply pulling in to a gas station and filling up in about 5 minutes. The pure EV has to find a much scarcer charger and spend 30-45 minutes to get recharge to achieve much less range than the ERH. Remember, chargers are currently not only scarcer, but because of the longer charge time their availability reduces proportionality to the charge time ratio, i.e., a 5 minute fill with gas compared to a 30 minute charge with electricity reduces availability by a factor of 6. Availability if further reduced by how much range is achieved. If 30 minutes buys you 100 miles of range and 5 minutes at the pump gives you 300 miles, availability is further reduced by a factor of 10 because the EV drivers need to find a charger 10X more often.
(4) Drivers will have to shed their attachment to the sound, smell and feel of gas-powered engines. Yes and no. Yes, drivers will have to get used to electric drive which is easy as it has a much more premium feel with instant torque, less powertrain vibrations and noise.
ERH like the Volt are EVs. Until their battery is depleted all propulsion is essentially identical to a pure EV. Which is good, but ERH can only do this 90% of the time, the rest of the time the ICE has to be fired up to supply electricity. However, this will usually occur on long trips on the highways, at highway speed. So the issue of intrusive ICE noise and vibration is not so bad. The article discusses performance of electric over gas with 0-60 times. The current ERHs tend to be slower than ICE cars, but that´s because they were designed to be support economy. There is no reason why an ERH could offer superior performance simply by increase the output or the number of traction motors. Current Formula 1 race cars are hybrids, there is no reason I can think of why there couldn't be an ERH Corvette.
(5) The car industry will have to leave some of its old methods of production by the side of the road. I don´t thinks so, the Volt is produced on the same assembly line as conventional ICE power cars. If the majority of cars were ERHs production of auto propulsion components would continue. Governments would lose fuel tax revenues, but these lost revenues could be made up by simply imposing a road tax on EVs and ERH instead of a fuel tax. The article says dealers will have to streamline their networks to compete with the paradyme set by Tesla. If dealer franchise laws are dropped online purchasing will happen, but I doubt it and you will still need the dealers for service and repair.
Not mentioned is one of the main pushes for EVs and that is environmental considerations. Putting aside the environmental impacts of building an EV or ERH, which I am assuming as about the same, the operating impact of an EV in terms of greenhouse emissions is zero. The ERH can´t make this claim. But in one sense the ERH is superior because it better promotes the transition to electricity than a pure EV. Public fears and concerns of a transition to electricity are greatly reduced with an ERH and so I believe it is better to have 90% of the population driving ERHs where 10% of their driving is using gas, then 10% driving pure EVs with zero emissions.
(1) The cost of building motors and components will have to continue to decrease. The current estimated price of an EV powertrain is $16,000 compared to $6,000 for a conventional car. If for example, the cost of the conventional car powertrain breaks down to $4,000 for the ICE and supporting infrastructure like exhaust, radiator and fuel tank. Plus $2,000 for the automatic transmission. What is the cost bogy for an ERH? In the case of the Volt, the Voltec transmission is about the same as a conventional automatic transmission, so the cost bogy is the ICE, or about $4,000. This cost difference has to be contrasted to the cost of the powertrain in the pure EV. The major bits being the motor, inverter, charging electronics and large battery. The ERH has all the same components but the battery used in an ERH is much smaller. So the major cost factor of a pure EV over an ERH is the larger battery. Todays EVs have 60 KWH batteries and range around 250 miles. An ERH with a 15 KWH battery has an AER of about 50 miles. But it is important to understand that 50 miles is enough range to satisfy about 90% of an ordinary person´s driving. What about the other 10%, we will discuss that later. That extra 45 KWHs of battery have costs, first the battery itself and then the additional weight and size has also to be accommodated. GM estimates battery cost will fall to $150/KWH soon. So the raw cost of the additional 45 KWHs of battery is $6750. I am assuming that the battery support infrastructure such as cooling and inverters is the same for both. This cost difference already overcomes the estimated $4,000 cost bogy of the ERH over a pure battery EV. Conclusion, an ERH like the Volt is an EV, drives like an EV but costs less than a pure EV.
(2) There must be a steady, affordable supply of the resources required to make batteries. Yes, but this problem is greatly mitigated if the battery used is only 1/4 the size such as in the ERH.
(3) More charging stations will need to be built, and they´ll need to charge faster. An ERH, like a pure EV can be charged overnight at home and get enough charge to handle most daily commute requirements. This means about 10% of the trips require energy from a source other than home power. The ERH does this by simply pulling in to a gas station and filling up in about 5 minutes. The pure EV has to find a much scarcer charger and spend 30-45 minutes to get recharge to achieve much less range than the ERH. Remember, chargers are currently not only scarcer, but because of the longer charge time their availability reduces proportionality to the charge time ratio, i.e., a 5 minute fill with gas compared to a 30 minute charge with electricity reduces availability by a factor of 6. Availability if further reduced by how much range is achieved. If 30 minutes buys you 100 miles of range and 5 minutes at the pump gives you 300 miles, availability is further reduced by a factor of 10 because the EV drivers need to find a charger 10X more often.
(4) Drivers will have to shed their attachment to the sound, smell and feel of gas-powered engines. Yes and no. Yes, drivers will have to get used to electric drive which is easy as it has a much more premium feel with instant torque, less powertrain vibrations and noise.
ERH like the Volt are EVs. Until their battery is depleted all propulsion is essentially identical to a pure EV. Which is good, but ERH can only do this 90% of the time, the rest of the time the ICE has to be fired up to supply electricity. However, this will usually occur on long trips on the highways, at highway speed. So the issue of intrusive ICE noise and vibration is not so bad. The article discusses performance of electric over gas with 0-60 times. The current ERHs tend to be slower than ICE cars, but that´s because they were designed to be support economy. There is no reason why an ERH could offer superior performance simply by increase the output or the number of traction motors. Current Formula 1 race cars are hybrids, there is no reason I can think of why there couldn't be an ERH Corvette.
(5) The car industry will have to leave some of its old methods of production by the side of the road. I don´t thinks so, the Volt is produced on the same assembly line as conventional ICE power cars. If the majority of cars were ERHs production of auto propulsion components would continue. Governments would lose fuel tax revenues, but these lost revenues could be made up by simply imposing a road tax on EVs and ERH instead of a fuel tax. The article says dealers will have to streamline their networks to compete with the paradyme set by Tesla. If dealer franchise laws are dropped online purchasing will happen, but I doubt it and you will still need the dealers for service and repair.
Not mentioned is one of the main pushes for EVs and that is environmental considerations. Putting aside the environmental impacts of building an EV or ERH, which I am assuming as about the same, the operating impact of an EV in terms of greenhouse emissions is zero. The ERH can´t make this claim. But in one sense the ERH is superior because it better promotes the transition to electricity than a pure EV. Public fears and concerns of a transition to electricity are greatly reduced with an ERH and so I believe it is better to have 90% of the population driving ERHs where 10% of their driving is using gas, then 10% driving pure EVs with zero emissions.
It's more interesting that in most of the country they've been completely replaced for transportation and the population is still almost half.
Not so many on the roads these days, though, and I live a quarter mile from where the MPD stable their crowd-control equines, and the staging area for the local carriage trade. Are you expecting much "paddock ICE"?
Joined
·
10,014 Posts
Yes. Cars will become more like pets in that they will have brains. There is a very old Issac Asimov short story called 'Sally' that perfectly describes this condition. Not unlike the way horses are treated today.
Automotive repair shops will adapt their service. They won't go away. Fuel and engine service will be about the only aspect that drys up. Body, suspension, steering, frame, bearings, body-electric (lights, sound, window and seat actuators, etc), heaters, air bags, seats, window glass, AC, tires - about 2/3's of the current services provided by 3rd party repair shops - will still require service and can be serviced without EV training. And as the EV industry matures and 3rd parties have access to both the tools and the skills to service the thermal management systems (cooling pumps, hoses, radiators and valves), inverters, charge controllers, motor/drive units, and batteries, they will add services, too.
Joined
·
1,264 Posts
Don't forget the Amish! How wealthy are we? Wealthy enough to keep vast numbers of 1000 lb pets.
Standard internet disclaimer, I didn't read the article, but I'll comment anyway.
Upfront cost needs to come down. First thing a buying sees is the payment, all the other TOC stuff is noise. And TOC is a mixed bag, EV's being expensive are also expensive to insure, and register for that matter.
The more EV's around, the more downward pressure on gasoline prices. Vast quantities of oil will still have to be refined to provide jet fuel, diesel, heating oil, and there will be a gasoline fraction resulting therefrom.
My time horizon ends (hopefully) around mid century, I think there will still be a lot of hydrocarbon vehicles on the roads.
Standard internet disclaimer, I didn't read the article, but I'll comment anyway.
Upfront cost needs to come down. First thing a buying sees is the payment, all the other TOC stuff is noise. And TOC is a mixed bag, EV's being expensive are also expensive to insure, and register for that matter.
The more EV's around, the more downward pressure on gasoline prices. Vast quantities of oil will still have to be refined to provide jet fuel, diesel, heating oil, and there will be a gasoline fraction resulting therefrom.
My time horizon ends (hopefully) around mid century, I think there will still be a lot of hydrocarbon vehicles on the roads.
Not! According to all of my neighbors from 20 something college students to 70 something seniors none have a clue what TCO even is. All they care about is how much will it cost me per month to own or lease and how much gas will it use. Nothing else. Not maintenance or depreciation or where the energy comes from or the exhaust goes to.
Joined
·
23,690 Posts
I agree. Misunderstanding + myth + plus old school thinking.
My Bolt never visits a gas station. Not missed at all. Filling up in the garage while I sleep is far superior.
My Bolt's maintenance schedule is rotate tires, check fluids, and at 150K miles replace the fluids. Brakes should be almost lifetime.
My Bolt is silent and smooth. No tickety-tackety engine, no vibrating transmission, no 75% of every $1 being wasted as ICE noise.
My Volt can go cross country, but never has.
My Volt can refuel in minutes, but now I don't need to.
The Voltec drivetrain is a great gateway drug to EV's.
Joined
·
894 Posts
Imagine if we could harvest all of the wasted horse energy in the United States . . . and domestic dogs and cats could feed all of our homeless.
Joined
·
3,347 Posts
Only two things really need to happen to make electric vehicles take over the world.
1. There has to be the availability of vehicles for all types of buyers - cars, trucks, and SUV's of all sizes. You can't sell one or two electric vehicles and expect everyone to change over from what they need or want to a small number of choices.
2. If the automakers would really put their sales machines into really trying to sell electrics, they would sell by the millions.
All I know is that everyone that I have let drive my Bolt gets out of it saying something like "I had no idea that it would be such a great car to drive! I was expecting it to be a golf cart..."
Jim - 2012 Volt & 2017 Bolt
1. There has to be the availability of vehicles for all types of buyers - cars, trucks, and SUV's of all sizes. You can't sell one or two electric vehicles and expect everyone to change over from what they need or want to a small number of choices.
2. If the automakers would really put their sales machines into really trying to sell electrics, they would sell by the millions.
All I know is that everyone that I have let drive my Bolt gets out of it saying something like "I had no idea that it would be such a great car to drive! I was expecting it to be a golf cart..."
Jim - 2012 Volt & 2017 Bolt
For the U.S. and Canada:
1.) About 15 more Gigafactories (or kWh equivalent), supply chain, recycling operations, etc.
2.) A few thousand high speed DC charging sites, with anywhere from a few to fifty or more charging stalls each, covering the U.S. highway system. Note: At this writing Tesla has about 460 Supercharger sites on line. They have pretty much covered the Interstate Highway System - except for I-94 in North Dakota. There are anywhere from 4 to 40 stalls per site.
Multiply the above by about 4 to include the rest of the world.
1.) About 15 more Gigafactories (or kWh equivalent), supply chain, recycling operations, etc.
2.) A few thousand high speed DC charging sites, with anywhere from a few to fifty or more charging stalls each, covering the U.S. highway system. Note: At this writing Tesla has about 460 Supercharger sites on line. They have pretty much covered the Interstate Highway System - except for I-94 in North Dakota. There are anywhere from 4 to 40 stalls per site.
Multiply the above by about 4 to include the rest of the world.
1 - 19 of 19 Posts
