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Volt vs Prius - First 22 Months of Sales

7524 Views 16 Replies 11 Participants Last post by  volt3939

I've seen it mentioned how the Volt is doing versus the Prius during the same period, but I never saw the numbers. So I've compiled them. The data is in the attached spreadsheet, along with the links to the source data.

These are USA sales specific. I show the Prius started sales in July 2000 and the Volt in Dec 2010. I call this "First Month". The first 12 months of sales are "First Year". Then we have months 14 through 23 (October 2012 Volt numbers included).

SPOILER ALERT: The Volt now has monthly sales exceeding the Prius at the same period in its sales history.

Volt: 27306
Prius: 228989

If Volt sales continue even at the same rate, the Volt will overtake the Prius in total unit sales over the same timeframe within about 3-4 months. Also interesting is that the Volt actually surpassed the Prius' sales rate back in March on a like-for-like basis. You can see how it's now on an accelerated path well above what the Prius did. July appears to have been the breakout month where things really started to take off.

Spreadsheet is here.
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Accodring to the Wiki, the Prius US sales were as follows for the first 4 years. The Volt's 2012 total could outsell prius' 2003, it's 4th year in US. And remember, the Prius came out in Japan in 1997, so it had a history to help sales in US when it was introduced here. A running start so to speak. Over 30k sold before it hit the shores of the US.

2000 5.6k
2001 15.6k
2002 20.1k
2003 24.6k
- Hybrid technology concept is proven
- Batteries are new, expensive and life is uncertain.

Volt's released in an atmosphere where the hybrid tech is proven and more advanced, but still has expensive, unproven batteries so a comparison with Gen 1 is much more reasonable than Gen 0.
These numbers are quite interesting, and the sales growth patterns are very parallel. One factor that is going to make a major difference, however, is that the Prius didn't have real competition. The Volt does. The next few years should be fun.
The Prius had a different kind of competition: cheap gas.
* the volt's incentives is substantially larger than the competing Prius--making a stronger negative pull on the Prius.
It's generally regarded that the Gen 1 Prius was sold below cost, with Toyota, in a sense, providing the large incentives through pricing.

* will there be enough volt's to get the Tipping Point of consumers before the incentives all run out?
200,000 from each manufacturer. It's more a matter of question of whether the batteries will get cheap enough by the time the incentives run out.

* Iran's president gets exponentially crazier each year! Thus, affecting gas prices.
He's either crazy or showing just how crazy he has to act to keep the crazy Mullahs happy.
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