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Discussion Starter #1
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107109_teslas-own-numbers-show-autopilot-has-higher-crash-rate-than-human-drivers


The article has an excellent perspective and what factors to consider, like sample size and total mileage driven for Tesla's engaged Autopilot and non-engaged accidents and fatalities.

Elon Musk and Tesla fans have been overhyping the immature technology. Can't blame them for the excitement. Based on inadequate sample size, so far, the message has been that Tesla is giving AutoPilot technology a big black eye due to its eager beaver fans that paid dearly with their lives.

There is great future in autonomous driving. Why not look to those technologies being developed by Uber and Google? Obtain the statistics about true autopilot programs being done by Google and Uber as well to compare the autopilot program of the Tesla? So far, we don't have any fatalities from Google and Uber's autopilot programs. The only complain of course is that their autopilot drive like a cautious grandmother when navigating city streets as it follows the speed limit literally instead of going with the flow when everyone else is over speeding. So far both the Uber and Google, there have been no reported fataliites. Yes there were crashes but rarely the fault of autopilot system.

With respect to Google's more matured autonomous car, this is their worst crash so far, and it wasn't at fault.

http://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/24/google-self-driving-car-accident-video/

And here's a good article about Uber's autonomous driving:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602492/what-to-know-before-you-get-in-a-self-driving-car/
 

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The really important thing to remember in all of this is that we are talking about machine learning systems so once one vehicle makes a mistake, or encounters a situation, they should (in theory anyway) ALL learn from it for all time.
 

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The really important thing to remember in all of this is that we are talking about machine learning systems so once one vehicle makes a mistake, or encounters a situation, they should (in theory anyway) ALL learn from it for all time.
As we creep 1 step closer to Skynet taking over the world. ;)
 

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The biggest worry for owners of other brands with driver's assistance packages is that our discount on insurance is at risk.

If digital driving controls increase the number of claims, it will eventually be reflected in our insurance cost.
 

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The fundamental contradiction here is that Autopilot isn't really an autopilot. It's a set of technologies which enable the driver to drive more safely. Since Autopilot requires a driver, it's absurd to claim that it's "safer" than a driver. It's like saying glasses "see" better than a person, which of course makes no sense.

The one accident occurred when someone was listening to the Tesla hype and believed Autopilot to be something it's not. When used correctly, I believe it can and will fulfill the function of enhancing safety.

The more incisive criticism of Musk would be that by claiming "Autopilot is safer than a human driver" he is continuing to pretend that Autopilot is something which it's not.
 

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The fundamental contradiction here is that Autopilot isn't really an autopilot. It's a set of technologies which enable the driver to drive more safely. Since Autopilot requires a driver, it's absurd to claim that it's "safer" than a driver. It's like saying glasses "see" better than a person, which of course makes no sense.

The one accident occurred when someone was listening to the Tesla hype and believed Autopilot to be something it's not. When used correctly, I believe it can and will fulfill the function of enhancing safety.

The more incisive criticism of Musk would be that by claiming "Autopilot is safer than a human driver" he is continuing to pretend that Autopilot is something which it's not.
It lends credence to my concern that the driver assistance can enable/encourage some drivers to pay less attention to driving. Even many of the TV commercials can imply this.
 

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The amount of accidental deaths for any vehicle is proportional to the HP it has. A more powerful vehicle will produce more deaths due to speeding and lost of control. The Model S and all these powerful vehicles are terrible candidates for autonomous driving.

I will let anyone who reads here to do their own searches and studies, which proves my point.
 

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It lends credence to my concern that the driver assistance can enable/encourage some drivers to pay less attention to driving. Even many of the TV commercials can imply this.
There are certainly things you can do to prevent the problem. MB requires your hands to be on the wheel or the vehicle stops. Cadillac is going to have a sensor reading the eyes. Tesla on the other hand has promoted Autopilot as being something it isn't in order to give the impression that it has a more advanced system than it does, and it hasn't implemented anything to prevent someone from being inattentive.
 

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Tesla on the other hand ... hasn't implemented anything to prevent someone from being inattentive.
I think that's a little harsh. 8.0 has 'hands on wheel' sensing. Even 7.x had it.
 

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I think that's a little harsh. 8.0 has 'hands on wheel' sensing. Even 7.x had it.
AFAIK it's fairly lame. Sometimes doesn't sense your hands of the wheel and it will allow your hands off for fairly long periods of time without ever giving a visual nag much less an audio one.

And then of course there is the claim that "Autopilot is safer than a human driver" which is still bandied about. How does that not contribute to the idea that Autopilot is a hands free system rather than a drivers aid?
 

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AFAIK it's fairly lame. Sometimes doesn't sense your hands of the wheel and it will allow your hands off for fairly long periods of time without ever giving a visual nag much less an audio one.

And then of course there is the claim that "Autopilot is safer than a human driver" which is still bandied about. How does that not contribute to the idea that Autopilot is a hands free system rather than a drivers aid?
DonC,

The autopilot is safer than the human driver as long as their is a driver to watch over it. You know the autopilot is taking readings a thousand times a second on everything that is going on around them. This is much safer than a driver that gets a text looks down and swerves into another lane causing an accident.

You also brought up some other cars that have autopilots both of which are so far behind what Tesla is capable of they shouldn't even be included. Then on your typical anti Tesla rant you said they haven't "implemented anything to prevent someone from being attentive". You were soon schooled on yes they did have a measure of making sure you paid attention and even went so far as to start slowing the car and turning on the emergency lights before it comes to a complete stop if you don't put your hands on the wheel. This is far beyond what any other autopilot system is capable of right now.

Here is a comparison of a lot of other cars that have autopilots showing Tesla a clear winner: http://www.caranddriver.com/features/semi-autonomous-cars-compared-tesla-vs-bmw-mercedes-and-infiniti-feature-2015-tesla-model-s-p85d-page-5

Also considering all new Tesla will come with a whole slew of cameras, sonars and sensors making it level 4 capable because if you understood anything about autopilots you would know that right now the Tesla is only capable of level 2 which requires a human driver and with the combination of the two they are much safer. But I don't expect you to know this but only expect you to rip Tesla at every opportunity that you can.

OH btw here is Tesla getting the award for the most innovative company two years in a row:

http://www.forbes.com/pictures/elem45igi/top-25-most-innovative-c/?ss=innovative-companies#782d3650108a

http://www.forbes.com/sites/innovatorsdna/2016/08/24/teslas-innovations-are-transforming-the-auto-industry/2/#64ecc8af3141
 

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The autopilot is safer than the human driver as long as their is a driver to watch over it. You know the autopilot is taking readings a thousand times a second on everything that is going on around them. This is much safer than a driver that gets a text looks down and swerves into another lane causing an accident.
...
Then on your typical anti Tesla rant you said they haven't "implemented anything to prevent someone from being attentive".
You've misrepresented what I've said and then debunked it. Funny. Had you had actually read what I wrote, you would know that I said EXACTLY what your first sentence says. Namely, that Autopilot is NOT a driverless system and that, as a system of technologies designed to aid the driver, saying that Autopilot is more (or less for that matter) dangerous than a driver is inane. In fact I made the analogy to a claim that eyeglasses could see "better than a person", which is of course preposterous since eyeglasses aren't capable of seeing.

So who disagrees with you on this point? Not me. In fact the person who seemingly disagrees with you is Elon Musk, the one who framed the question by claiming "Autopilot is safer than a human driver". Obviously, as you are pointing out, this is ridiculous since Autopilot depends on a human driver. So why did he posit the comparison as being between a human driver and Autopilot? Given the rest of the hype surrounding Autopilot, and the way it was originally presented, it seems fairly obvious that he made it because he is trying to present Autopilot as being something that it's not, namely, a fully autonomous system (which is of course the reason it's called "Autopilot").

Do I think Autopilot makes the roads safer? Absolutely if it's used as an aid. Absolutely not if used as a chauffeur. The system just isn't sufficiently capable and can make the roads less safe by encouraging people to be inattentive. To use your example, which do you think is safer? 1. A driver paying attention to the road. 2. A driver glancing at his text messages with Autopilot engaged. 3. A driver glancing at text messages without Autopilot engaged. 4. A driver paying no attention and texting away because "Autopilot is safer than a human driver".

A substantial amount of research indicates that unless a system is designed to handle emergency situations, and Autopilot is not, the worst situation would be 4. That's the bad news. The good news is you only end up with situation 4 if you allow the user to disengage from driving. My criticism of Tesla is that by trying to hype Autopilot it has encourage situation 4 by, among other things, claiming that Autopilot is safer than a human driver. My criticism of the article is that, by attacking Musk's use of statistics, it validates the idea that Autopilot is a fully autonomous system which competes with a driver rather than a system which aids the driver.

Hopefully you now understand my point.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
In fact I made the analogy to a claim that eyeglasses could see "better than a person", which is of course preposterous since eyeglasses aren't capable of seeing.
I understand your point about the AutoPilot system DonC. I'd like to nitpick a little bit on your analogy though about EyeGlasses and AutoPilot system. It is true that eyeglasses aren't capable of seeing, so we could not say that they are better than a person. It would be a gray area when it comes to AutoPilot Systems. For one, there are now supercomputers analyzing the sensor inputs. Some are programmed with heuristic algorithms. As more and more edge cases of driving are encountered they are passed on and all the other databanks "learn" from the edge case and builds on the shared experience. Super computers, short of AI, can now mimic how people learn and experience, and then it is put into practice. Of course, eyeglasses remain as crude as they are for now because it doesn't have the processing power of an AutoPilot System. Today, even after Google's failure, "Eyeglasses" continue to evolve to become smarter than ever through Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality...

Of course the essence of your original analogy holds true, but at the current rate of technological advances, it would become a confusing way to use the supersmart eyeglasses and autopilot systems in analogies.
 

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DonC,

The autopilot is safer than the human driver as long as their is a driver to watch over it. You know the autopilot is taking readings a thousand times a second on everything that is going on around them. This is much safer than a driver that gets a text looks down and swerves into another lane causing an accident.
Pointless to argue with DonC. Not only is he a moderator, but he hates Tesla like Republicans hate Clinton - i.e., there's some truth to his bias, but it's more a factor of his misplaced loyalty to his preferred brand than anything else. I believe the technical term is, "drinks the Kool-Aid." Nothing is better than GM cars, even when something else is:

https://youtu.be/C3DbrYx-SN4
 

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Exactly this. DonC has to write a 500 word treatise to grapple with his cognitive dissonance. He loves the idea of autopilot, but hates that the devil ELON MUSK has developed it. If only GM was within 10 years of Tesla's lead on Autopilot, then he would be promoting the technology with a gleeful erection.

Pointless to argue with DonC. Not only is he a moderator, but he hates Tesla like Republicans hate Clinton - i.e., there's some truth to his bias, but it's more a factor of his misplaced loyalty to his preferred brand than anything else. I believe the technical term is, "drinks the Kool-Aid." Nothing is better than GM cars, even when something else is:

https://youtu.be/C3DbrYx-SN4
 

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Exactly this. DonC has to write a 500 word treatise to grapple with his cognitive dissonance. He loves the idea of autopilot, but hates that the devil ELON MUSK has developed it. If only GM was within 10 years of Tesla's lead on Autopilot, then he would be promoting the technology with a gleeful erection.
HAHA that actually made me laugh. Mostly because it is so true.
 

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