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http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312516594471/d185970d424b5.htm

This is a public offering of shares of common stock of Tesla Motors, Inc.
We are offering 6,800,000 of the shares to be sold in the offering. The selling stockholder identified in this prospectus supplement is offering an additional 2,777,901 shares. We will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale of the shares being sold by the selling stockholder.[/B](THIS stockholder is ELON MUSK)

Early after the vehicle's introduction, we were getting daily, sometimes even hourly, updates about how high the reservation count was. But after a couple of weeks, all we got was radio silence, and not even an update at the earnings report. Let me quickly remind you the last news we heard:

April 7th - Elon Musk tweets about receiving over 325,000 pre-orders in the first week.
April 14th - A top company executive details that Model 3 pre-orders are approaching 400,000.
April 21st - Elon Musk states that the company is at almost 400,000 orders while speaking at a conference.
Given that news, you might expect that we'd be well above 400,000 by now, perhaps maybe even getting close to where the half a million number would be talked about. Well, you'd be in for a surprise when you see the following statement detailed in the capital raise prospectus(see link above):

On March 31, 2016, we unveiled Model 3, a lower priced sedan designed for the mass market, and as of May 15, 2016, we held deposits from about 373,000 customers who had made reservations for this car. This reservation total is a net number after customer cancellations of about 8,000 and after about 4,200 reservations that we canceled on the belief that they could have been duplicates from speculators.

Now wait a minute! If you add all three of those up, you get to just over 385,000. This doesn't make sense if the company was at "almost 400,000" nearly a month ago and "approaching 400,000" more than a month ago. It appears that Tesla was being very dubious with its language, which might not surprise those who have followed the company in the past...:rolleyes:
 

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Now wait a minute! If you add all three of those up, you get to just over 385,000. This doesn't make sense if the company was at "almost 400,000" nearly a month ago and "approaching 400,000" more than a month ago. It appears that Tesla was being very dubious with its language, which might not surprise those who have followed the company in the past...:rolleyes:
Look! Over there! Isn't that a SuperCharger? :)
 

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Code:
Year ending          2013                                 2014                                    2015

Sales              2,013,496	  	 	 	3,198,356	  	 	 	4,046,025	
Production Costs   1,557,234	  	 	 	2,316,685	  	 	 	3,122,522

Seriously, their numbers look more like a college chemistry lab experiment than real numbers. When you consider how much costs should have fallen for a startup, and the fact the retail prices went up, and the economies of scale kicking in, I'd have thought it should have been a falling slope.

"We iz burnin' dough like da Prez on Holiday. Dat looks bad Joey, real bad. When we's make da new books for da bosses, what kinda numbers shoulds I puts in dem? Howz about one third profit? Sounds about right? Let me know if you wants anything different..."
 

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http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312516594471/d185970d424b5.htm

This is a public offering of shares of common stock of Tesla Motors, Inc.
We are offering 6,800,000 of the shares to be sold in the offering. The selling stockholder identified in this prospectus supplement is offering an additional 2,777,901 shares. We will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale of the shares being sold by the selling stockholder.[/B](THIS stockholder is ELON MUSK)

Early after the vehicle's introduction, we were getting daily, sometimes even hourly, updates about how high the reservation count was. But after a couple of weeks, all we got was radio silence, and not even an update at the earnings report. Let me quickly remind you the last news we heard:

April 7th - Elon Musk tweets about receiving over 325,000 pre-orders in the first week.
April 14th - A top company executive details that Model 3 pre-orders are approaching 400,000.
April 21st - Elon Musk states that the company is at almost 400,000 orders while speaking at a conference.
Given that news, you might expect that we'd be well above 400,000 by now, perhaps maybe even getting close to where the half a million number would be talked about. Well, you'd be in for a surprise when you see the following statement detailed in the capital raise prospectus(see link above):

On March 31, 2016, we unveiled Model 3, a lower priced sedan designed for the mass market, and as of May 15, 2016, we held deposits from about 373,000 customers who had made reservations for this car. This reservation total is a net number after customer cancellations of about 8,000 and after about 4,200 reservations that we canceled on the belief that they could have been duplicates from speculators.

Now wait a minute! If you add all three of those up, you get to just over 385,000. This doesn't make sense if the company was at "almost 400,000" nearly a month ago and "approaching 400,000" more than a month ago. It appears that Tesla was being very dubious with its language, which might not surprise those who have followed the company in the past...:rolleyes:
Does depend on the definition of customer. Each customer can have 2 reservations.
 

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I can see calling 385 K "nearly" or "approaching" 400 K... if numbers were climbing fast, and you follow the curve you could make these statements truthfully and then be surprised when the curve levels off as you reach market saturation. That is the part that should terrify them, they were surprised that the pre-order reservations leveled off... but they didn't slow down or level off they STOPPED going up completely!

If you are feeling generous and say that only half of the people truly interested in the Model 3 plunked down $1000 to reserve one, and (once again being generous) say that 90% of those who reserve (346 K) and 20% of interested people who did not reserve (77 K) and just for nice round numbers 20% of buyers get two Model 3's you end up with total sales of 450,000. If they ramp up production as fast as they think they will (ROFL) they will be out of customers 2 years after sales launch... the majority of Americans have no interest in Electric cars and they will have plucked all the low hanging fruit and actually have to market the cars to people who have not only not yet drank the Kool-Aid... they will be selling to people who hate Kool-Aid!

Keith
 

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Code:
Year ending          2013                                 2014                                    2015

Sales              2,013,496	  	 	 	3,198,356	  	 	 	4,046,025	
Production Costs   1,557,234	  	 	 	2,316,685	  	 	 	3,122,522

Seriously, their numbers look more like a college chemistry lab experiment than real numbers. When you consider how much costs should have fallen for a startup, and the fact the retail prices went up, and the economies of scale kicking in, I'd have thought it should have been a falling slope.
If they had a full lineup of cars and weren't ramping up, then you would want to see production costs dropping to give them more margin, but it's well known that the model X falcon doors cost them dearly to get them working right. Not sure if that number is built into the production costs, or whether they roll a separate R&D number somewhere.'

I heard second hand for someone that it wasn't until recently that a model X rolled off the line perfectly where it didn't need something reworked.
 

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I can see calling 385 K "nearly" or "approaching" 400 K... if numbers were climbing fast, and you follow the curve you could make these statements truthfully and then be surprised when the curve levels off as you reach market saturation. That is the part that should terrify them, they were surprised that the pre-order reservations leveled off... but they didn't slow down or level off they STOPPED going up completely!

If you are feeling generous and say that only half of the people truly interested in the Model 3 plunked down $1000 to reserve one, and (once again being generous) say that 90% of those who reserve (346 K) and 20% of interested people who did not reserve (77 K) and just for nice round numbers 20% of buyers get two Model 3's you end up with total sales of 450,000. If they ramp up production as fast as they think they will (ROFL) they will be out of customers 2 years after sales launch... the majority of Americans have no interest in Electric cars and they will have plucked all the low hanging fruit and actually have to market the cars to people who have not only not yet drank the Kool-Aid... they will be selling to people who hate Kool-Aid!

Keith
I think that it's a stretch to assume that most people who would ever buy the (or any) car would put money down ahead of the launch. That's certainly not what happened with the Model S.
 

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Code:
Year ending          2013                                 2014                                    2015

Sales              2,013,496	  	 	 	3,198,356	  	 	 	4,046,025	
Production Costs   1,557,234	  	 	 	2,316,685	  	 	 	3,122,522

Seriously, their numbers look more like a college chemistry lab experiment than real numbers. When you consider how much costs should have fallen for a startup, and the fact the retail prices went up, and the economies of scale kicking in, I'd have thought it should have been a falling slope.
Building the 10 million sq.ft. giga factory is going to put a dent in the numbers, but it also provide enormous opportunity for growth later on. It could be said Tesla is still pushing margins down the road while they continue to invest in capacity.
 

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the majority of Americans have no interest in Electric cars
I don't think that the number of $1,000 reservations is indicative of the total interest in EVs. It is simply a representation of how many people have the disposable income to put a deposit on something they don't expect to see for a couple of years. If you polled the members of this forum, I bet that a vast majority of them would consider purchasing an M3 if it were available now. If you polled the same population about whether they would be willing to put a $1,000 deposit down on a vehicle they won't see for a couple of years, the number would be far lower.

We are still in the early adoption phase, so many people are still in the wait-and-see mode. After M3 models start driving around on the street, you will see more interest. My guess is that the BMW 3 series sales numbers would be a better gauge of the volume of M3 sales Tesla could expect. That is, again, after the M3 is actually available and being driven on the streets.
 

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Now wait a minute! If you add all three of those up, you get to just over 385,000. This doesn't make sense if the company was at "almost 400,000" nearly a month ago and "approaching 400,000" more than a month ago. It appears that Tesla was being very dubious with its language, which might not surprise those who have followed the company in the past...:rolleyes:
I don't agree with the "dubious" comment. I see 385,000 as being perfectly consistent with descriptions of "almost" and "nearly" 400,000. You are the only one who mentioned the half a million number. Tesla never did. If your personal expectations of half a million were not met, that should not be turned into "Tesla was lying."
 

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I believe that the average age of cars on the road in the US is of the order of 10 years or more.

If you are driving a 2-4 year old car, rather than place a reservation, you are probably waiting to see what's available years from now when you are ready to trade it in.

If you are driving an 8 year or older car, rather than place a reservation, you are probably planning to quickly replace it whenever a major repair is required.

So the number of people for whom reserving a car makes sense is limited to a fraction of the potential market, however large or small that market might be. And. or course, the actual size of that market will depend largely on the price of oil, the price of the vehicle and the price of competitive alternatives. In other words, how can anyone know how many model 3s might be sold whenever it becomes available.

KNS
 

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I don't agree with the "dubious" comment. I see 385,000 as being perfectly consistent with descriptions of "almost" and "nearly" 400,000. You are the only one who mentioned the half a million number. Tesla never did. If your personal expectations of half a million were not met, that should not be turned into "Tesla was lying."
I agree, simple rounding, everyone does it. I see nothing nefarious here.
 

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Most companies are mature, producing the same thing, at nearly the same volumes year after year. The only reason they'd want equity is an unforeseen loss...

Just because most companies as aged, like our population doesn't mean NO companies are expanding and need to increase production.

It seems like the society is following the demographics, aging fast. All those commonly held beliefs are influenced by the fact that most holding them are rapidly approaching senescence... Like why we don't replace our aged infrastructure, those in the dominant voting group (until now) wouldn't be here to take advantage of it as, well, they only have a couple years left.
 
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