[Bluesideup]

I am not going to hold my breath but that would be great news to those half million still holding reservations.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-non-employee-deliveries-commence-next-week/

 

[Steverino]

Tesla is producing 5,000 Models 3's per week at this point looking at the production plans laid out by Musk. The reality will be what? 30 cars for actual buyers?

And then there was the claim that production started in July. But those few units were actually pre-production units, though Tesla claimed it was not doing pre-production units. Pre-production was old-school GM thinking. Instead, Tesla would skip that step and go directly from computer to production to buyer.

Yet here we are 6 months later. None of those promises were kept. Production is barely at a crawl. A few buyers will get a car before end of year.

Meanwhile, old-school GM launched full Bolt production a year ago and have been cranking them out ever since. The fit, finish and quality is high. Will we be able to say the same about the handful of Model 3's that get squeezed out this month?

 

[photonburst]

Would love to see the available-to-purchase competition (non-GM) increase in the lower priced models across the industry. Good for everyone really.

 

[Mister Dave]

that would be great news to those half million still holding reservations

I'm sorry but that made me laugh. At this rate they might get one in this decade.

 

[Qinsp]

It is curious that normal buyers are already queuing up.
With 10,000+ employees plus investors (who received some of the earliest), and less than 1000 cars produced total, it seems the M3 was not a popular choice with Tesla staff and investors.

How many are going to delay their 'build date' due to the $50,200 minimum cost of the first Model 3's remains to be seen.
I hope a lot of folk decline so I can get mine in February (from Dec).

 

[Mister Dave]

It is curious that normal buyers are already queuing up.
With 10,000+ employees plus investors (who received some of the earliest), and less than 1000 cars produced total, it seems the M3 was not a popular choice with Tesla staff and investors.

Or the employees who ordered them can only afford the strippers, so they'll be leap-frogged.

 

[Qinsp]

Or the employees who ordered them can only afford the strippers, so they'll be leap-frogged.

Probably. Even with the $7500 credit, the first run exceeds the average new car price, and the factory workers probably are not in the income bracket that buys $42k new cars. I'll bet most the Model 3's in private hands are investors and upper management (including project managers and engineers) at this point.

 

[Mister Dave]

I'll bet most the Model 3's in private hands are investors and upper management (including project managers and engineers) at this point.

Coupla few SpaceXers maybe. I dunno - they may like burning fuels more. It's a rocket scientist thing.

 

[rhodomel]

Probably. Even with the $7500 credit, the first run exceeds the average new car price, and the factory workers probably are not in the income bracket that buys $42k new cars. I'll bet most the Model 3's in private hands are investors and upper management (including project managers and engineers) at this point.

The GOP talking heads will surely calculate price each Tesla Model 3 to be in the hundreds of million dollars a piece similar to how they priced the Volt when it first came out.

 

[JoeReal]

The GOP talking heads will surely calculate price each Tesla Model 3 to be in the hundreds of million dollars a piece similar to how they priced the Volt when it first came out.

It would be the Tesla shorters writing articles that Tesla is losing hundreds of thousands of dollars per TM3 made and sold! They just divide the cost of the gigafactory, the assembly line, the R&D, and the cost of supplies in the inventory or purchased, by the number of TM3 cars produced in 2017. So it would be a big number, right now could be in the tens of millions of dollars per Tesla Model 3 produced so far.

 

[Mister Dave]

So it would be a big number, right now could be in the billions of dollars per Tesla Model 3 produced so far.

Fixed that for you.

 

[JoeReal]

Fixed that for you.

LOL! So true.

 

[Mister Dave]

LOL! So true.

Well, some of us look at the numbers unfettered by confirmation bias don't we?

 

[scottf200]

... A few buyers will get a car before end of year...

I find this all somewhat ironic because GM pushes to get a few models out in Decembers too. A few buyers got the Volt and Bolt by the end of the years so they could claim they made it in that year for stock or some accounting/tax purposes.

Recall GM pushing to get Volt deliveries in Dec '10. I got mine in Feb '11.

Bolt's in Dec.

 

[Mister Dave]

Meanwhile, old-school GM launched full Bolt production a year ago and have been cranking them out ever since. The fit, finish and quality is high. Will we be able to say the same about the handful of Model 3's that get squeezed out this month?

Inquiring minds want to know. The clock is ticking.

Bolt sold 1162 in January as we can see above, despite only being rolled out in ZEV states.

Apparently they were ready to produce in December in the numbers they intended to. And perhaps we should differentiate between sales and production capability. That and whether the early cars are built on the assembly line they were tooled for, or are being built by hand. IIRC GM had already done a pre-production run on the assembly line used for the final product before throwing the switch on full production.

I mean, if you want to debate nuances......

 

[fotomoto1]

I find this all somewhat ironic because GM pushes to get a few models out in Decembers too.

Yup. Long time members/readers may recall that GM and Nissan were in a friendly game back in late 2010 of A) who would get their product to market first and B) most sales for that "year". IIRC, the Leaf won. Does it really matter now? Does anybody really care? No.

Ultimately, the same will happen with the Model 3.

 

[Steverino]

Had people (and Tesla) not made such a huge deal out of eliminating "old-school" pre-production testing and how Tesla was going from computer to production to show the other's how it's done, I wouldn't care. But they did. The result is pretty glaring: production is no where close to the claims.

 

[Mister Dave]

Had people (and Tesla) not made such a huge deal out of eliminating "old-school" pre-production testing and how Tesla was going from computer to production to show the other's how it's done, I wouldn't care. But they did. The result is pretty glaring: production is no where close to the claims.

View attachment 144305

I don't know if that's the issue here (though it's clearly disappointing). I think the issue is more leading with their chin. The production timeline was based on everything going right both in Fremont CA and in Sparks NV. This was a foolish and perhaps egotistical assumption. That or it was a barefaced lie to pull junk bond investors in. I'll go with the former considering who is at the helm. Looking at Tesla's history, it wasn't hard to predict.

 

[Qinsp]

I don't know if that's the issue here (though it's clearly disappointing). I think the issue is more leading with their chin. The production timeline was based on everything going right both in Fremont CA and in Sparks NV. This was a foolish and perhaps egotistical assumption. That or it was a barefaced lie to pull junk bond investors in. I'll go with the former considering who is at the helm. Looking at Tesla's history, it wasn't hard to predict.

After 10 years, it's pretty apparent that it's not excessive enthusiasm that makes Tesla Motors exaggerate.
It apparently has been an important part of their marketing from the beginning.

 

[Mister Dave]

After 10 years, it's pretty apparent that it's not excessive enthusiasm that makes Tesla Motors exaggerate.
It apparently has been an important part of their marketing from the beginning.

Hmmm....... I may have been too charitable.