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Just as I have predicted about Tesla Model 3, they are slowly slipping back on their delivery dates. They said end of the year 2017, now it is pushed back to 2018. They're now 100% late in all their products including the Model 3. And if you order the very base Model 3, you would be dead last on production priority as they will manufacture the most profitable ones, the one with plenty of profitable options for them.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/ordering-a-tesla-model-3-now-hope-you-like-waiting-until-2018-or-later/
 

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That's orders placed *today*. "Some" people who placed orders before today still (theoretically) will get their deliveries by the end of 2017. Those people being current Tesla owners that live in the San Jose area that order fully loaded 3's.
 

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From the article:

"Today's website update does not reflect any change in our plans," a Tesla spokesperson said in a statement. "We still plan to begin Model 3 deliveries in 2017, and we adjusted the delivery date on our marketing page to reflect more accurate timing for new/future reservation holders."
 

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Discussion Starter #4
Better order the Chevy Bolt now and it is guaranteed to be at least one year ahead of Base Tesla Model 3!
 

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If Tesla has conversion of their 400k or so reservations anywhere near 50%, 'new' order deliveries will be in the 2019 to 2020 timeframe. Factory is not supposed to be ramped to 500k/year until late 2018. And that's the rate not the amount built to that date.

And that's if there are no actual delays such as battery factory is not up, suppliers are not up, design issues, quality issues, etc. etc. etc. Building cars is not an easy thing. Building them in the millions is way harder than just impossible.

Good luck getting a Model 3 for $35k before incentives in Springfield MO sometime before 2020.
 

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Lordy so much hype. I wish Tesla was a privately held corp and 99% of this crap would dissolve.

There are LOTS of various 2018 car models that will be arriving.

The Model 3 is the only one where people are placing bets in Vegas, errr... strike that... Wall Street on the actual date.

When will the 2018 Camry hit the showrooms? Nobody cares.
 

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Lordy so much hype.
Unlike all other 2018 MY cars, the Model 3 cannot be a miss. Not shipping at least a token amount in 2017 is death. Not shipping at a 500k rate by the end of 2018 is death. Not using batteries from the Tesla factory is death. Any quality issue or recall is death. Solar City integration miss is death.

Tesla has so many ways to die it will be a huge surprise if they are around in 2020.

Better order the Chevy Bolt now and it is guaranteed to be at least one year ahead of Base Tesla Model 3!
Bolt is already ahead by a year based on Tesla's own estimates. I'm thinking three years (fall of 2019) before Model 3 is shipping more base units per month than Bolt. 500k/year (Tesla's boast) is 42k/month. GM is capable of shipping 50k/month Bolts out of the gate. This year. Tesla will be shipping $45k to $55k optioned units until 2020. If they are still in business.

GM's competition is not Tesla. It is BMW, Nissan, Audi, VW, MB in the EV space. Toyota, Honda, et al are not there.
 

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Just as I have predicted about Tesla Model 3, they are slowly slipping back on their delivery dates. They said end of the year 2017, now it is pushed back to 2018. They're now 100% late in all their products including the Model 3. And if you order the very base Model 3, you would be dead last on production priority as they will manufacture the most profitable ones, the one with plenty of profitable options for them.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/ordering-a-tesla-model-3-now-hope-you-like-waiting-until-2018-or-later/
Your post, as well as the linked article, are misleading. You might help to avoid misleading others by editing your original post to clarify that there is no slippage (at least not yet). They just updated their site to make it clear that people making a reservation today would have to wait in line behind hundreds of thousands of other people.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/10/18/13319136/tesla-model-3-production-delivery-timeline-delay
https://electrek.co/2016/10/18/tesla-model-3-is-not-delayed-cnbc-misreports-and-sends-tesla-tsla-stock-crashing/
 

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"Today's website update does not reflect any change in our plans," a Tesla spokesperson said in a statement. "We still plan to begin Model 3 deliveries in 2017, and we adjusted the delivery date on our marketing page to reflect more accurate timing for new/future reservation holders."

Whether Tesla can actually make the reaffirmed 2017 delivery schedule for the early reservation holders ordering fully outfitted cars is yet to be seen of course.
 

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I actually believe that website/blog to be incorrect. The TM3 has always been a late 2017 production start.
However there have been other reports that some TM3 reservation holders have stated that the projected delivery date on their personal page on the Tesla site have been "adjusting" (apparently in both directions)
Much ado about nothing IMO
WOT
 

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What would be a good wager?

I predict that no "regular" reservation holder will be able to purchase a $35k Tesla Model 3 in 2017. I'd put it at 50/50 to get one by Dec 2018.

Why?

It's just over a year away, and nobody has even seen what a $35k model will look like. So there is a lot of work to be done still.

I doubt the price of materials will allow a Model 3 with 215mi of EPA range to sell for $35k without a serious loss.

Tesla does not have a historical track record of hitting their schedules. I think they are calculated based on Best Possible Scenario not allowing for any hiccups (cough gullwing doors cough).
 

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What would be a good wager?

I predict that no "regular" reservation holder will be able to purchase a $35k Tesla Model 3 in 2017. I'd put it at 50/50 to get one by Dec 2018.

Why?

It's just over a year away, and nobody has even seen what a $35k model will look like. So there is a lot of work to be done still.

I doubt the price of materials will allow a Model 3 with 215mi of EPA range to sell for $35k without a serious loss.

Tesla does not have a historical track record of hitting their schedules. I think they are calculated based on Best Possible Scenario not allowing for any hiccups (cough gullwing doors cough).
Go to a Tesla forum and offer to make the wager. You will get plenty of takers.
 

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Artful balancing act. Trying to encourage potential Model 3 buyers to look at the Model S but not discourage existing reservation holders so much they pull the deposit, which would throw shade on the narrative when Tesla goes to the capital markets for more money.
 

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That is for late and new reservations. This is what my reservation says "Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. Deliveries will begin in late 2017"
Late 2017 could be December 31st, 2017.
 
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