[don shaw]

here's a link to Anton Wahlman's coverage of Detroit Auto show on seeking Alpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4036732-auto-industry-ces-detroit-shows-great-insane

The following excerpt states Bolt production is being increased to 75,000 per year and more. (Stated as a fact)

"General Motors: GM is basking in the glow of the Chevrolet Bolt EV, which has taken the EV world by storm. Will the Bolt EV out-sell the Tesla Model S in the U.S. already in the month of January 2017, even though it's only available in California and Oregon thus far? We'll find out in early February, but either way GM is clearly taking a deserving victory lap here. It is the new undisputed EV King.

GM is ramping up production of the Chevrolet Bolt EV to what could soon be a TAKT time (here) of two minutes. That means one car per two minutes of the assembly line moving. Let's say 10 hours per shift, so that would be 30 cars per hour, or 300 cars per such 10 hour shift.

Multiply those 300 per shift by 250 days per year and you have 75,000 Bolt EVs per year from that one shift. That's within reach, probably within a year from now. Remember, Tesla as a company barely broke 76,000 cars sold in 2016 - Models S and X combined, all geographies world-wide.

I would not be surprised to see GM make an announcement by the second half of 2017 that it is expanding production of the Bolt EV (and its Opel badge-engineered version to be sold in Europe starting in June 2017) beyond this 75,000 annual capacity that's likely already within reach in less than one year from now.

Then add GM's production of the Chevrolet Volt (remember, not Bolt) that's selling at least approximately 3,000 units per month in the U.S. alone right now, and you have another 36,000 units coming from that side. The Cadillac CT6 plug-in hybrid is also starting production now - in China - and will be exported to the U.S. starting this spring" (end of quote)

There was a post on this forum a couple months ago from an employee at the factory who said the same thing. I wonder who Wahlman's source is.

 

[jason.meador]

GM is ramping up production of the Chevrolet Bolt EV to what could soon be a TAKT time (here) of two minutes. That means one car per two minutes of the assembly line moving. Let's say 10 hours per shift, so that would be 30 cars per hour, or 300 cars per such 10 hour shift.

Multiply those 300 per shift by 250 days per year and you have 75,000 Bolt EVs per year from that one shift. That's within reach, probably within a year from now. Remember, Tesla as a company barely broke 76,000 cars sold in 2016 - Models S and X combined, all geographies world-wide.

Wow! This would be awesome news!! The January Bolt numbers might be awesome! And the 2017 total could be record setting!

 

[Henry_FL]

Seeking Alpha is just someones opinion, its not fact in anyway. Would be great if GM was to ramp up demand to 75K, until that info comes from GM, it ain't so.

 

[Charge]

Now they need to sell or lease all those cars.

Time to step up GM and show your real allegiance to the EV revolution and offer realistic lease prices before these cars sit on the lot.

 

[Steverino]

I hate to throw cold water on this, but until GM makes an announcement that jives with his back of the envelope guessing, it's just his opinion. Take it with a grain of salt, this guy has the cart before the horse. GM COULD ramp up production in response to market demand, but won't until there is sufficient market demand. GM is NOT saying it will sell 75,000 Bolt EV's. I can almost guarantee they will NOT say that. For those who were around in 2011, you know why they won't.

 

[viking79]

Also, Tesla only reports sales quarterly, so won't be able to compare Bolt EV sales unti April. His comment about checking in February is misleading as the Bolt EV will certainly have much higher sales that month since Tesla's deliveries are weighted towards the end of the quarter as estimated by insideevs.com.

 

[Henry_FL]

Now they need to sell or lease all those cars.

Time to step up GM and show your real allegiance to the EV revolution and offer realistic lease prices before these cars sit on the lot.

This isn't the Volt, this is the only mass market EV with double/triple the range of anything sold in the last seven years. Take 10%-20% of those owners, throw in 5-10% of the model 3 waiting list and your sold out to the next decade. Either you want it or your don't. I hear you can get a nice smart EV for 49 a month lol

 

[Qinsp]

Seeking Alpha is a self-serving stock gambling, errr... investment site.

Good news or bad, it's not coming from there without serious spin.

 

[rmay635703]

30 per hour may be true but car companies sometimes batch production.

This means that you might get a months worth in a few days and then nothing.

All totally meaningless though

 

[Bacardi]

If production is increased (apparently three fold from the speculative 25K in the states) this would be great news...But I don't think it's happening especially the first year...It's like every time we hear an interview about the Bolt from a senior GM official, they mention some ICE vehicle/project...

It is the new undisputed EV King.

There are cheaper EVs, there are EVs with more range, there are EVs with more features/options, there are faster EVs and there are EV offered with more desirable segment...What the Bolt EV is, the first semi-affordable medium range EV...

 

[Neromanceres]

Actually 30 Bolt EV's an hour sounds about right (and Ampera-e's). Though I doubt GM is running 10 hour shifts a Orion. Likely five 8 hour shifts a week. Which would put production at close to 60K on an annual basis. GM would likely be trying to avoid overtime.

Consider that GM is now building Canadian Bolt EV's and for the US north east. Plus they need to scale to meet European and other international demand (South Korea for example) with those deliveries starting this summer. I figure GM will sell about 30K in the US. About 5K in Canada and 25K in Europe and other international markets this year.

 

[Charge]

This isn't the Volt, this is the only mass market EV with double/triple the range of anything sold in the last seven years. Take 10%-20% of those owners, throw in 5-10% of the model 3 waiting list and your sold out to the next decade. Either you want it or your don't. I hear you can get a nice smart EV for 49 a month lol

Yes, valid points, but a mass market EV with great range should not be available for purchase today if there is pent up demand, especially in Silicon Valley. My local dealer has 15-20 Bolts available for purchase today less than 3 weeks after its initial release. IMO there should be a waiting list.

 

[Neromanceres]

Yes, valid points, but a mass market EV with great range should not be available for purchase today if there is pent up demand, especially in Silicon Valley. My local dealer has 15-20 Bolts available for purchase today less than 3 weeks after its initial release. IMO there should be a waiting list.

Honestly that's why I think GM launched the car they way they did. GM has been producing Bolt EV's since October. My understanding is they had over 2000 built to ship to California and Oregon by the end of December. I think GM wants this car on the lot and wants it to be available, unlike the slow trickle of the Gen I Volt. Hence the planned roll out.

 

[Charge]

I truly hope it's successful but I fear too many people have grown accustomed to the low monthly prices of many plug-ins and EV's and refuse to pay twice what they are paying now. I'm in that boat and can count at least four others in these forums and personally.

At the end of the day it's still just a car with a very long EV range to me. It doesn't have ground breaking tech or any 'must have' features. It does have a great assortment of things i do want (CarPlay, OnStar, cameras, and hopefully Volt-like relaibility) but it's still just a car with a longer EV range and more space than my Volt at about twice the monthly price.

I'm trying to figure out the demographic they are targeting with MSRP pricing. It's not people new to EV's as they would run away from the monthly prices when comparing to ICE cars. It's not end of lease Volt people, as most of us are are not going to pay so much more. I don't think it's Model S people as they seem content to wait for their Unicorns. It seems like its early adopters who want one (EV) car to handle their most of their needs and are ready to cough up the dough on a purchase and plan to keep the car for a long time. I thing it males sense to this group but feel GM could gain lot more traction in the other groups, especially with the Volt lease people.

 

[SharkVolt]

The writer was not realistic in his calculations. A shift is 8 hours, July and December are usually closed down for Yearly changes/holidays. So a realistic guess would 50,000 cars.

Still, if the demand is there, that would be an eye opening number of Electric vehicles for one model of one brand. And if the demand exceeds 50,000, then GM and LG will certainly try to increase production if they can.

My guess is that if the production exceeds 30,000 by much LG may attempt to move battery production to the US, just as they did with the Volt.

 

[Loboc]

This is a flex line. Capacity of 75k is not only Bolts. As we saw with Volt, capacity is not the driving force. Demand is driving sales.

If GM only contracted for 30k packs (with some buffer), they can't immediately scale to over double that.

 

[Sean Nelson]

I hate to throw cold water on this, but until GM makes an announcement that jives with his back of the envelope guessing, it's just his opinion. Take it with a grain of salt, this guy has the cart before the horse. GM COULD ramp up production in response to market demand, but won't until there is sufficient market demand.

It makes sense that they would start production at a relatively low rate until they know that they've got the kinks worked out of the process, and that they would ramp it up in order to fill the pipeline to the dealers and to satisfy what is surely some pent-up demand from people who have been waiting.

But it makes equal sense that they could ramp production back down again once the pipelines have been filled. Once that happens the level of production will be determined by how well it sells. It's bass-ackwards to try to guess sales figures from the production rate, especially this early in the game. Sales figures will be governed by demand, not by production capacity - unless the car is wildly more popular than either GM or LG expect.

 

[bro1999]

The author of that article is looking at things through GM-blue tinted glasses.

 

[Sean Nelson]

If GM only contracted for 30k packs (with some buffer), they can't immediately scale to over double that.

While I'm not privy to their contract, it seems very likely to me that they contracted for a minimum number and that part of the deal would be an assurance that the number could be increased to some maximum annual amount. It's even possible that they have a sliding price scale as volumes go up.

The whole automotive industry is all about "just in time" manufacturing, and when companies like GM choose their suppliers a big part of their evaluation process is determining how fast and flexible they can be with respect to volumes.

 

[bro1999]

http://www.hybridcars.com/not-a-com...t-production-capacity-exceeds-50000-per-year/

"To date the highest U.S. sales of EVs like the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model S have barely topped 30,000 but if as many as 50,000 shoppers happened to place orders in 2017, Kelly said Chevrolet could fill them.

“There is nothing constraining us from doing that,” said Kelly when asked how Chevrolet might handle a potential deluge of 50,000 orders that would far surpass conservative analyst projections for the Bolt’s first year of sales."

Note that even the above statement doesn't limit 2017 sales to 50,000....it ONLY says if demand for 50k was there, GM could produce 50k no problem. So obviously GM is not limited to just 30k battery packs this year. Seems it is only limited by the number of Bolts the Orion factory can crank out.