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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
First, here is a link to the nitty gritty of the CARB ZEV credit regs for 2018 and beyond: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwiz8O2SsPvPAhVGVyYKHYDyDnAQFggkMAE&url=https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevtutorial/zev_tutorial_webcast.pdf&usg=AFQjCNFHiOO5oq0k5eI_VqXDEwVBKXY9Hw&sig2=v2Jzw1SJAYScmkNKjy5G-Q&cad=rja

Almost made my head explode.

What I did manage to wrap my head around is the ZEV credit worth for a Volt (and Bolt).

The max any TZEV (so any PHEV, to include the Volt, Ford Energis, Prius Prime, etc...) can earn is 1.3 credits in 2018 and beyond. Judging by the graphic, the current Volt will be worth about 1 ZEV credit in 2018. To earn the max ZEV credit value of 1.3, the Volt will need an all-electric range of 80 miles (according to the US06/UDDS scale, which I believe is similar to the EPA city range. The 2017 Volt officially has 56 miles of city EPA range).

If a 2018/2019 Volt could hit 80 miles AER on the UDDS scale, that would mean the overall EPA range would be in the low to mid-70's....let's pick 75 just because. At 75 miles of EPA-rated range, the Volt would max out the ZEV credit scale at 1.3 credits.

The Bolt, as it currently is rated, would be worth 3 ZEV credits in 2018 and beyond, with a theoretical max of 4 ZEV credits (would need a 350+ mile US06 AER).

Anyways, as max ZEV credits per vehicle go from 9 (fuel cell) down to 4 in 2018, those credits will be harder to obtain, so manufacturers will want to milk as many credits as possible from eligible vehicles as long as it makes fiscal sense for them

A ~75 overall EPA EV range is what the Volt would need to achieve max ZEV credits. Will it happen? I guess we'll see. :cool: The Volt would need at least a 25 kWh battery (or smaller size with increased capacity usage) to hit at least 70 EPA miles without a major redesign.

zev.jpg zev2.jpg
 

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How much is a ZEV credit worth versus how much does it cost to increase range. GM has the Bolt battery cells which could be used to make an improved Volt battery. Seems likely to happen and perhaps would even reduce their cost of the battery and increase their ZEV credits.

The increase in range would really help in adverse situations such as really cold, really hot, really fast, strong wind, steep hills and such.
 

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I could see the Gen II AER going up 10% (by 2018 or so) but getting to 75+ miles before the Gen III shows up in 2020 is problematic. Plus, if you have an EREV vehicle, you get less bang for the buck/kWh when you go over 17 kWh packs.
The entire electric car market will be so different by 2020 it is hard to imagine what role EREV will have at that point. I have always looked at EREV as a bridge technology, that by 2025 or so BEV's wouldn't need to have the genset. The packs will be energy dense enough and cheap enough and the fast charging network will be ubiquitous enough so that packing a genset won't make sense.
By 2020? Maybe?
 

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Discussion Starter #4
Maybe 75 EV miles in Gen 2 is too ambitious now that I think about it, but assuming there is a Gen 3, I think GM would want to hit the 75 mile mark to earn max ZEV credits.
 

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So if a Volt gets 1 credit, what does a Prius Prime or C-Max Energy, etc. get? If they also get 1, that's a rip-off. EDIT: Okay, they get less. Good.

Rather than working to increase from 1 to 1.3, I would rather see them work to increase their sales of their existing Volt by 30% or more. ;)

As an aside, isn't Chevy considered an LVM? If so, it would seem that only ZEV credits apply to them, and they can't use TZEV credits to meet their needs (though perhaps they can sell TZEV credits?)... Bear with me, my brain hurts from looking at that presentation.
 

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At what point does EV range make the ICE irrelevant? Cost to benefit ratio?
 

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At what point does EV range make the ICE irrelevant? Cost to benefit ratio?
Never. Depending on the purpose, the ICE can always be a good idea.

Let's say you want to make a REAL small SUV, pickup, or van. EPA ratings are unladen. What happens when you need to tow a trailer, or carry 1,000lb of cargo, or 7 people, or all of the above?

Well, your 80 miles of battery will get 40 miles towards your goal. Just to go 80 miles will take an ICE generator.

Or go bigger, like VIA motors. A full sized pickup with 120 miles range out of an 60kWh battery. Tow a BIG trailer with an ICE range extender and series hybrid for mountain grades.

Personally, I thought Fisker had the right idea, and Tesla did not. Time will tell. Long range travel is actually a very small part of an average vehicle's life, so why put a 100kWh, 1,200lb battery you must always carry around even to go 10 miles? 400lb gets you an entire ICE generator assy of 100kW.

Build a massive infrastructure of chargers everywhere, and you STILL have the problem that a 300 mile pure EV needs a very, very heavy and expensive battery no matter what it's task and it will still spend a lot of time charging.

It's almost like if we wanted 400 mile EV's, we should have a 50kWh battery built in with 200 miles of range, then for long trips, attach the 100kW detachable surfboard. Otherwise, we just waste a lot of electricity, money, and tires for normal driving conditions.
 

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If there is a new chemistry that would give them the extra range in the existing size pack, then I could see it happening. If more range meant making a larger battery pack, then I don't see it happening. I doubt it would be worth redesigning the whole car for that extra .3 credits. I agree with CarksonCote in that it would be a better use of their time and money to try to sell 30% more existing Volts (and Bolts).

Of course.. every time we talk about range increases...It's worth mentioning that the Volt is already at the top of it's class in range. There's the BMW i3 REx, but I hesitate to compare the two since the i3 sacrifices utility on the ICE. So it isn't like the Volt needs to catch up in the PHEV space to be competitive or anything. Good grief, the darned Prius Prime will likely end up outselling the Volt despite its much lower AER. And then there's always the question of how much range is really optimal in a PHEV. 99% of all of my driving in my 2017 is in EV mode. You could keep adding more range and get me to 99.5% and 99.8%... but you'd have to add a LOT of range to get me 100%.
 

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Too big a bump. That's 40%! Greater than increasing from gen1 to gen2, and that involved more changes to usable SOC than actual chemistry improvements (battery chemistry change was only ~12%!). And you think they'll do that as a mid-cycle refresh? Not happening.
I could see them potentially using the newer bolt cells in place of the volt cells as a mid-cycle refresh, but I doubt that's going to be 40%. And would also be dependent on if they're all needed to make bolts or not.
 

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How much is a ZEV credit worth versus how much does it cost to increase range. GM has the Bolt battery cells which could be used to make an improved Volt battery. Seems likely to happen and perhaps would even reduce their cost of the battery and increase their ZEV credits.

The increase in range would really help in adverse situations such as really cold, really hot, really fast, strong wind, steep hills and such.
Yes it most definitely would here in NYS winters. Im counting on such an upgrade by 2018.
 

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I think the i3 REX gets the same 3 ZEV credits as the battery only version. In order to get the full 3 ZEV credits the REX had to remove the Hold mode and make the gas range less than the battery range.

I'm too lazy to plow through the CARB ZEV requirements but I believd GM is required to offset 11% of its emissions with ZEV credits.

I also think the Volt only gets 0.6 ZEV credits because it has Hold and gas range further than electric. I wonder if the Volt could get full ZEV credits (4 if range greater than 200 miles) if it had an AER of 200 miles and gas range of 195 miles? Of course lugging around a battery 4 times larger than you need for 90% of your trips doesn't seem to make much sense.
 

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I just don't get why the don't do a pickup ev and beat tesla and everyone else to that punch. Trucks are heavy, put two bolt batteries under the bed, give it 50-80 miles of range and AWD and a TON of torque. Have electric torque get you off the line and the engine for the highway.

It's a no brainier for towing and why trains are diesel electric not direct drive.

I'd snap up a PEV Silverado or Sierra in a heart beat even at near tesla prices.
 
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