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I think we have a few things in the news that just might balance each other out, if we're lucky:

1) Around 4.5 Billion recoverable barrels worth of shale - North
Dakota (discovered in 1995 but the assessment was increased). Very difficult to extract, harder than tar sands. Will start seeing real oil in 5 years.

2) Around 33 Billion recoverable barrels worth of deep well crude - Brazil. Will start seeing real oil in 5 years.

3) Russia seems to have reached peak - last year's 10 mbd should be highest production number reached - Number two world producer of oil.

If Russia starts to fall off now finds 1 and 2 will not help us. If Russia can hold on for 5 more years before falling off finds 1 and 2 will probably not be enough to hold us at current levels, assuming everything else stays the same. Projected max output from the Alberta tar sands is 5 mbd which will be reached around 2015 or later. Same for Ven.

However, as the poster above wrote this oil will be a lot more expensive. Cheap oil is a thing of the past.
 

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interesting article

Actually, as a fellow columnist, I thought the article was well-written. The numbers look ball-park right and Paul was pretty balanced on his impartial analysis.

But I can't be impartial. I'm a Volt fan.

Short-term economics has little to do with it. In the long-term, EREV's are the future and someone has to drive the technology development to get us there. Tired being upstaged by Toyota, GM has made the choice to be that company.

Banking on the "green" or just plain "different" cool factor to sell Volts is a major roll of the dice, or maybe more like a hail-Mary, but it looks like a good play call to me. I'll be out there cheering the whole time and hoping Bob Lutz has the arm to get it to the end zone.
 

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well i thougt it was a great article

I have a Nissan Altima Hybrid. I keep it until a more (to Me) refined Prius comes out. Personally I want hight all electric speed, a plug for more all electric range. And a nicer interior (like the Altima) Thanks so now I don't have to follow the forum as closely, just wait for the next gen Prius. :)
 

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The one problem that I have always had with the peak oil projections is that they are always based on the status quo. They do not account for any shift towards electric cars.

We are on a sight devoted to an electric car. I am sure that most here feel that in less than a generation you will not be able to purchase an automobile with an ICE. The only thing that I would like to see is a floor put on gas prices so it does not fall below $3.00 per gallon. Lets put some nails in gasoline's coffin and bury it for good.
 

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Actually, as a fellow columnist, I thought the article was well-written. The numbers look ball-park right and Paul was pretty balanced on his impartial analysis.
I have read several of your comments and found them very thoughtful, but I strongly disagree with this assessment. Paul showed a strong bias towards the Prius with much of his analysis (32 AER for life of vehicle, $4/gallon gas for life of vehicle, lowest cost Prius available today, etc). I can't say the Volt looks like it will be a cost positive purchase versus the Prius for many if any early adopters, but it is really too early to draw any strong conclusions. Gripperdon's comments underscore why accuracy in reporting is so important.

As many people on this site realise and hopefully other non-enthusiasts will realize, it is not just about total cost. There are so many other factors why people may be interested in the Volt. Even so, I do know costs will play an important role and one that could prevent many customers from even seriously considering the Volt. Most of those people will get there impressions and understanding from the media. This is why I think it is so important that the media be accurate and unbiased in their reporting.
 

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Koz,

For the first 10,000 people, the Volt probably won't be about cost/benefit. The problem for GM is that the next 10,000 people probably won't be motivated that way.

The higher the premium, the fewer people will look past the cost/benefit to some fuzzy (to them) societal good.

Many people don't look past purchase price at all. Cheapest whatever wins.
 

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Exactly! That's why everyone drives a Geo metro, Chevrolet Aveo, Dodge Nitro, Saturn ION, or other bear bones model. No wait...

I think Tesla did the world a great service breaking the golf cart image. Man did it ever! As soon as the street racers get a hold of these cars and see what they can do the rest will be history.

Why do I have to be a hippy, penny pitching, tight wad to drive a car with a battery in it? I think the technology is expensive because it gives the car better performance (rail car like acceleration) and makes me feel less of a fool for not having to send my money to far away exotic lands. I don't currently drive an old Ford Pinto either! Do you? The next time some one asks you if it would be cheaper to buy X or Y ask them what they drive. Then ask them the same question. If they DO drive a Ford Pinto or similar car then say you are sorry. ;)
 
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