Paul Niedermeyer's article was interesting and useful in pulling together a lot of details for comparison. The last word I saw on pricing from Lutz was $48K and maybe $40K if they were willing to make some sacrifices. GM has a bad track record on their hybrid vehicle costs and I expect the Volt to be no exception.
Is projecting the 2010/2011 fight realistic at this stage? Yes and No.
The Yes: Toyota has a perfectly good car on the road today, clearly stated goals which are incremental and probably achievable and a lot of experience. They have firm plans and are actually building production facilities. I expect they know what they're doing. What Niedermeyer projects is probably realistic, except, perhaps the price. I think he's high, Toyota's got a lot of energy going into cost containment and volume increases can only help. If it wasn't for currency effects, I think we'be be looking at a $19K Prius very soon.
The No: The Volt is entirely speculative. GM's done nothing like it, their track record is bad, they've sent shifting messages about capability and cost. Niedermeyer, if anything, was being generous.
The Volt is going to get hammered on price. It's likely Honda's going to hit the very low end of the market with a pretty good car, Toyota will continue in low-mid price with a very good car, offer a better one for somewhat more and the Volt is going to debut for the price of a nice Beemer. If you're comparing a vanilla Prius 3 to a Volt, the money saved, if invested, pays for the Prius' fuel forever and then some.
Is projecting the 2010/2011 fight realistic at this stage? Yes and No.
The Yes: Toyota has a perfectly good car on the road today, clearly stated goals which are incremental and probably achievable and a lot of experience. They have firm plans and are actually building production facilities. I expect they know what they're doing. What Niedermeyer projects is probably realistic, except, perhaps the price. I think he's high, Toyota's got a lot of energy going into cost containment and volume increases can only help. If it wasn't for currency effects, I think we'be be looking at a $19K Prius very soon.
The No: The Volt is entirely speculative. GM's done nothing like it, their track record is bad, they've sent shifting messages about capability and cost. Niedermeyer, if anything, was being generous.
The Volt is going to get hammered on price. It's likely Honda's going to hit the very low end of the market with a pretty good car, Toyota will continue in low-mid price with a very good car, offer a better one for somewhat more and the Volt is going to debut for the price of a nice Beemer. If you're comparing a vanilla Prius 3 to a Volt, the money saved, if invested, pays for the Prius' fuel forever and then some.
