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New 5-Year TCO Study Says EV Still Face Challenges



But, even with all the differences, in nearly all areas that the study took into account, the higher prices of such vehicles, joined by the rapid deprecation clearly outweigh any of the fuel savings. Furthermore, the major factor played out in the purchase of said vehicles – the federal and state incentives – are necessary for BEVs to even be as cost-effective as their ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) counterparts.
Full story at Inside EVs.
 

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The old depreciation B.S.

And how is it that the maintenance costs look the same for all the cars? I can say that's likely a load of bunk as well.
 

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Depreciation models are valid, but we must understand how those rates of depreciation work in relation to the credits and incentives.

In addition, we can't just look at today as an example of how things will be in the future. As incentives and credits phase out, the depreciation of EVs will decrease. But also, as fewer people are interested in owning ICE vehicles, the rate at which they depreciate will increase.

My guess is that, in five years, the typical ICE vehicle will depreciate more than 50% in the first three years of ownership. In 10 years, financing them will become more difficult (costly) and leasing them will become nearly impossible. Essentially, in 10 years, almost no one will be buying ICE vehicles (new or used), so their depreciation will effectively be 100% the moment you sign the paperwork and drive them off the lot.
 

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Todays EV's will become value less in 5 years as the new battery technologies make them obsolete just as you can imagine if a new ICE engine became available that could suddenly get 90 miles per gallon would obsolete all ICE vehicles built before. Unless of course you believe that everything that could be invented, has been invented. In which case you can join the club of the former head of patents in US (circa late eighteen hundreds) that said the US patent office should be closed down because everything that can be invented has been invented. OK, he didn't actually say that (it was a magazine article) but the story is just too good a one for it to die.


Meanwhile, I'll just enjoy my Volt for as long as it will go.
 

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There is a simple way to avoid new car depreciation: don't trade cars every few years. Depreciation is almost meaningless if you buy and hold.
 

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Todays EV's will become value less in 5 years as the new battery technologies make them obsolete just as you can imagine if a new ICE engine became available that could suddenly get 90 miles per gallon would obsolete all ICE vehicles built before.
Something is only truly obsolete if it can no longer serve its intended purpose. If you have a 40-mile commute and an 80-mile EV, unless that 80-mile EV is no longer capable of making your 40-mile commute, it is not obsolete. Even if the next model of your EV has 150 miles of range.

It's why I find this trend of leasing so absurd. People lease because the technology might change in three years. Sure, the technology might change, but did your needs actually change? For most people, the answer is no.
 

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I never care about "depreciation" because I keep my GM vehicles for over ten years. My 1984 Olds Ciera was running well when I sold it in 2010 to a neighbor. My 1995 Buick Regal was very well used when I sold it to a friend (who still uses it) in 2016. I will keep my present 2009 Chevy Equinox until GM produces a PHEV CUV. I am expecting the 2020 or 2021 Cadillac XT4 PHEV.

EVs have less maintenance so they will depreciate less than an equivalent ICEV. I expect to read about Gen 1 Volts still running by 2030.
 

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My 2012 Cruze Eco MT depreciated from $21K to 7.8K over five years. But I spent far more on maintenance each year than I've spent on my Volt - four oil changes at $40-$50 each year vs. one half of an oil change for the Volt (24 month change cycle). I did the calculations for my Volt and determined the most expensive maintenance item I now have is tires, and that is about 1 to 1.5 cents per mile.
 
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