Thank you for your considerate reply. The 'master plan' had a goal of the Model 3 and certainly they have worked those configuration pricepoint numbers (LR/SR, options, RWD/AWD, etc) with many forecast models that get revised regularly. Certainly their avg (config opts) sold Model 3 will make money. The battery material and tech is one of the major components and that is a major the point of the gigafactory (along with powerwall/powerpacks).I can see your point here but the issue is whether Tesla can sell the Model 3 and stay in business. Last quarter Tesla lost something like $28K on every vehicle is delivered. If GM took even $20K off the price of the Bolt how many do you think it could sell? That's not to say the Model 3 costs a lot more than the Bolt EV to build. It won't. But the models Tesla will be selling won't be $35K with a $7500 tax credit. And how many of those "clamoring" for what has been marketed as a smaller version of a Model S for $35K will still be clamoring when they see what they get for $50K. This isn't a problem for Tesla alone. For GM and Tesla and every other auto manufacturer the problem is that BEVs are too expensive given the alternatives.
So to answer your question: I don't think Tesla will sell 200K or 300K Model 3s a year, both because it won't be able to make that many and because the demand won't be there. Demand for the Model S and Model X is not exactly going through the roof. These models, especially the Model S, had a nice run, but Tesla is looking at steady or even declining demand. How many small sedans for $50K do all manufacturers combined sell in the US? (The US is the relevant market because Tesla's business in Europe is "Meh" and in China it's downright lousy).
A journalist for the WSJ and NYTimes once remarked that, for technology companies, "it seems that it's the true believers who sometimes don't get something very basic -- addition and subtraction".
Re: How many small sedans for $50K do all manufacturers combined sell in the US?
IMO, at a highlevel the Model 3 and the Bolt are competitors only because they are > 200 mile BEVs. They are very different and the Bolt is not the competitor. There are *many* articles on this using lower BMWs, Audis, etc as the real comparisons. As to your question, you would have to define what small sedans are the competitors and then look at goodcardbadcar to see what they sell. I suspect there are articles about this. I'll search.
I really like the blue line with the circles here: