[bro1999]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brooke...er-a-lot-morgan-stanley-analyst/#69e19dc430a0

Also says actual Model 3 production in 2017 and 2018 will only be a fraction of what Elon has stated. And the $35k price is basically a fairy tale.

 

[Qinsp]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brooke...er-a-lot-morgan-stanley-analyst/#69e19dc430a0

Also says actual Model 3 production in 2017 and 2018 will only be a fraction of what Elon has stated. And the $35k price is basically a fairy tale.

That is one of the few articles by financial institutions that appears to acknowledge that manufacturing is not magic.

I pretty much agree with everything, EXCEPT that Tesla 'could' make a $35k car in 2017 that meets the promoted specs. Obviously they 'could' SELL a $35k car. Heck, they 'could' sell a P100DL for $35k. The problem is they cannot sell very many. I'm guessing the reason the MS60 is being ditched is because they can't afford to sell a model below cost anymore. There was little reason to discontinue MS60s since they are no different at all from a MS75. It's easier than selling the cars with different wheels.

So if an MS60 was not profitable enough, how much should it have sold for? When badged as 75, the car is $75,700 which is staying in the lineup and is an identical car.

I just have a hard time figuring out how they are going to reduce the costs of building Model 3's to below $40,000 less than a stripped MS75. 1/2 the battery is not going to give 200 miles. 1/2 the luxury features? Uh... there aren't that many. 1/2 the chassis costs? Perhaps. 1/2 the motor and inverter costs? No. 1/2 the wheel, tires, and brake costs? No.

A $35k M3 base would be sold at a loss in 2017, and probably 2018/2019.

 

[Raymondjram]

Forbes is closer to the truth than Elon Musk. GM, which has been building cars for over 110 years, and can assemble a car in less than one hour, has its own multi-month programmed timeline for production startups. All their cars go through this program, but we have been watching the Volt and the Bolt close up, with an average of 24 months from the announcement until the first sold car. So if GM is rolling out the Bolt EV slowly, it has to do so, and ensure a top quality product with very few or no initial problems for the buyers. GM will NEVER take advantage of its buyers as "beta" testers, as TM has done for other models and will do for the Model 3. Only their engineers and trained test drivers have done those "alpha" and "beta" testing in house and privately. The Bolt EV is fully tested and a final product which can be purchased NOW.

If you have a reservation for a TM Model 3, you will continue to wait until late 2018!

 

[flyingsherpa]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brooke...er-a-lot-morgan-stanley-analyst/#69e19dc430a0

Also says actual Model 3 production in 2017 and 2018 will only be a fraction of what Elon has stated. And the $35k price is basically a fairy tale.

We all know Tesla has a history of being late (and at a higher price), I think most people expect that to continue. They are still a (comparatively) tiny car company without the large resources of mainstream companies. They choose admirable goals but usually only meet them in a token kind of way. I'm ok with that.

The Model S originally quoted a $50k price, and here's the thing... they actually did sell some at that price. They were completely base model S40, but they did hit the price. And almost nobody bought one. Tesla is different in that almost all cars are custom ordered, whereas most people buy cars from dealer stock. The difference is that people order what they want, rather than pick from what a dealer thinks people want. So if nobody bought the $50k Model S because it was stripped down and had short range, I would assume the $35k Model 3 will be similar... it will (eventually) be available, but the vast majority of customers will add the features they want and end up with a higher price tag. That's their choice. I hate all the dumb headlines about the Model S saying "Tesla only sells a $100k car!", no... they sell at many different price points, their customers choose the $100k version quite often. The Bolt is awesome, but if you want a bigger battery or AWD etc and are willing to pay for it, it doesn't matter because it's not offered, period. Choice is good!

 

[DonC]

This isn't necessarily negative for Tesla. Saying the transaction price will be $60K just predicts that people will pay $60K for it. That part is actually positive in that it means the product is desireable. On the other hand it is negative if you wanted a Tesla but aren't willing to spend more than $35K before rebates.

The Model S originally quoted a $50k price, and here's the thing... they actually did sell some at that price. They were completely base model S40, but they did hit the price. And almost nobody bought one.

That was the story but I don't think that was the truth. I think the truth was that Tesla badly underestimated its costs and found that it couldn't sell a Model S for $50K. Doesn't really matter. At one point Toyota had a low priced Prius that it never sold. It was just a marketing ploy to establish a low base price. In this regard, the $35K Model 3 fills this role. Without an actual car to sell, it's easier for Tesla to suggest that people not buy a $40K Bolt EV but wait for its $35K Model 3 than to suggest they wait for a $60K Model 3.

 

[jsmay311]

And the $35k price is basically a fairy tale.

That's not what he said.

He said they *could* deliver a $35,000 base model, but that *most* customers will *choose* to order a model with options that will push up the *average* transaction price.

And if he's correct that *most* customers will order a heavily optioned vehicle with high-margin options, that means that Tesla will be able to pull in profit on those cars and have no need to raise the base price. (At least not right away. Longer-term, after proving they could deliver a $35k 200+ mile BEV, they could tweak the base price however they want to match market conditions.)

 

[mr_raider]

This isn't necessarily negative for Tesla. Saying the transaction price will be $60K just predicts that people will pay $60K for it. That part is actually positive in that it means the product is desireable. On the other hand it is negative if you wanted a Tesla but aren't willing to spend more than $35K before rebates.

That was the story but I don't think that was the truth. I think the truth was that Tesla badly underestimated its costs and found that it couldn't sell a Model S for $50K. Doesn't really matter. At one point Toyota had a low priced Prius that it never sold. It was just a marketing ploy to establish a low base price. In this regard, the $35K Model 3 fills this role. Without an actual car to sell, it's easier for Tesla to suggest that people not buy a $40K Bolt EV but wait for its $35K Model 3 than to suggest they wait for a $60K Model 3.

What this means is that the the 35k model is probably vaporware. A base model with so few features, that few will be built, and few will find it desire. Cramming in options will make it more profitable for Tesla, since the margins will be higher. The problem for Tesla is that it leaves less separation between the S and 3.

Anyone who bought a Bolt this year can rest assured they got one of the best bargains in the business. It may not be sexy like a Tesla, but 20k will you a lot of sexy.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

That is one of the few articles by financial institutions that appears to acknowledge that manufacturing is not magic.

I pretty much agree with everything, EXCEPT that Tesla 'could' make a $35k car in 2017 that meets the promoted specs. Obviously they 'could' SELL a $35k car. Heck, they 'could' sell a P100DL for $35k. The problem is they cannot sell very many. I'm guessing the reason the MS60 is being ditched is because they can't afford to sell a model below cost anymore. There was little reason to discontinue MS60s since they are no different at all from a MS75. It's easier than selling the cars with different wheels.

So if an MS60 was not profitable enough, how much should it have sold for? When badged as 75, the car is $75,700 which is staying in the lineup and is an identical car.

I just have a hard time figuring out how they are going to reduce the costs of building Model 3's to below $40,000 less than a stripped MS75. 1/2 the battery is not going to give 200 miles. 1/2 the luxury features? Uh... there aren't that many. 1/2 the chassis costs? Perhaps. 1/2 the motor and inverter costs? No. 1/2 the wheel, tires, and brake costs? No.

A $35k M3 base would be sold at a loss in 2017, and probably 2018/2019.

How does any technology become cheaper with each generation?
Tech improves, manufacturing costs are lowered, sales grow and economies of scale increase. Repeat.
Each generation drops the costs in chunks, especially at the point of exponential growth.
The Model S is 5 years old and is priced like it.

In terms of EV, Tesla is not a boutique manufacturer. It's big. It's building a vehicle for which it has 400k reservations and building up to sell hundreds of thousands per year. If GM can sell the low-volume Bolt with a $37.5k MSRP and still be profitable with significant margin (based on dealer discounts), why is it inconceivable that another company making EVs in larger numbers could sell a car with a smaller battery than the Bolt for a couple of thousand less?

 

[Bacardi]

Unlike last time where pricing goals were not met, I believe this time it will be...If you go to the Tesla website it still states "$35,000"...I believe by this point if they were planning to raising the price, they would have already removed that language...

In the days of older Tesla you either got supercharging or you didn't, they now de-bundled it and will charge in blocks...In 2015 Tesla offered a 30 day free trial for AP...A smart idea would be for Tesla to enable a 31 day AP trial starting the day of delivery then allow you to purchase "blocks" (whether by the day/week/month) and/or a $99/mo subscription service...With the current destination fee of $1200 and S/X AP price of $5000, you're already at $41,200...Throw in some occasional "blocks" of supercharging and you're essentially at the magic number of $42,000...

Furthermore there are many smaller cars that sell as low as $12K, GM's own MY16 ICE Spark MSRP is $12,600K and dealers are still discounting along with GM leaving some money on the hood with target incentives...Then look at the MY16 Spark EV with its $26K MSRP, first dealers were offering thousands off, then GM was basically liquidating them with all sorts of fire sale incentives...

 

[wildgoose]

Anyone who bought a Bolt this year can rest assured they got one of the best bargains in the business. It may not be sexy like a Tesla, but 20k will you a lot of sexy.

I test drove a Bolt, pretty good. But where can I get one for 20K? Please enlighten me. Even with the 9K rebate it's still more like 30k after tax. If I can get discounts on the Bolt like how the Volt is, I'll seriously consider it.

 

[DrMiguelitoLoveless]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brooke...er-a-lot-morgan-stanley-analyst/#69e19dc430a0

Also says actual Model 3 production in 2017 and 2018 will only be a fraction of what Elon has stated. And the $35k price is basically a fairy tale.

At $35K the M3 has to have stats equal to or better than the Bolt, or it is a fail. So, that means it has to be faster, get better than 238 EPA range, and have the same basic options found on the Bolt.

Now, if you want a more range, more performance, Autopilot, and/or AWD, then you are going to pay substantially more. Since the MS-60 is being discontinued, that sets the base price for an S at around $75K, so $60K for a fully tricked out M3 is not out of the question. Personally, I think the average price is going to be around $45K, as people go for AP and a bigger battery, or AP and AWD. Certainly that is my upper limit. I want safety and efficiency, so AWD and AP are what I am interested in.

As to whether he can hit his production numbers, I don't know. Yes, he has had problems in the past, but to be fair, he was also working with suppliers who didn't think he would succeed and didn't make Tesla a priority. With 350K reservations, the suppliers have taken notice and are realizing this could make them a ton of cash, so they will be way more invested in Tesla hitting its numbers.

In six months or so, we shall see. This is just my opinion as a tech guy (computer not auto) who has seen a lot of big companies eat their words betting against "upstarts".

 

[DonC]

Unlike last time where pricing goals were not met, I believe this time it will be...If you go to the Tesla website it still states "$35,000"...I believe by this point if they were planning to raising the price, they would have already removed that language...

Same thing happened with the Model S. The low end model which was phased out was on the web site for a long time. Then the web site showed the price as being minus all credits and rebates AND minus the time saved by not going to the gas station. Basically the web site is not authoritative.

But the bigger point is that the price won't be raised. The base model just won't be available. As mentioned, Toyota did the same thing with the Prius. It's just a way to publish an unrealistic MSRP. Marketing marketing marketing.

I'm not fond of the BS but can't see anything wrong with selling higher end vehicles. Seriously, if you can sell something for $60K why would you sell it for $35K? That would be crazy.

At $35K the M3 has to have stats equal to or better than the Bolt, or it is a fail. So, that means it has to be faster, get better than 238 EPA range, and have the same basic options found on the Bolt.

I can't see this happening. The Bolt EV will be faster and/or have longer range than a $35K Model 3. Maybe faster and more range. However, looks and brand count. So to be successful the Model 3 could fall short of the Bolt EV on all those dimensions and still be successful.

 

[Bacardi]

At $35K the M3 has to have stats equal to or better than the Bolt, or it is a fail. So, that means it has to be faster, get better than 238 EPA range, and have the same basic options found on the Bolt.

In the spirit of the Raiders moving to Vegas, we'll talk a lot about Vegas...375K(ish) reservations is based on 215 miles of range...I'd take a Vegas bet there was less than 500 "defectors" who heard the Bolt EVs higher range number, cancelled their reservation and bought a Bolt...

Multiple reports state over half of all EVs are sold in CA, one of the most popular routes is SoCal to Vegas, depends where you coming from but it's about 300 miles, which is over the both the Bolt EVs and Teslas estimated range...If you decide to drive your EV (and not take another vehicle or fly) in either you'll need to stop for charging...Tesla has the supercharger while we don't know the exact speed, I'd take another Vegas bet that the T3 will do it faster...

Bolt EV has won the range per dollar award which may only be important to EV enthusiasts...Tesla has already beat GM in getting current ICE buyers "off oil"...Even now with current Tesla offerings, despite many folks being rich and owning 1 or more ICE vehicles, Tesla has a compelling enough offering for them to keep an EV in their vehicle stable...

 

[wildgoose]

At $35K the M3 has to have stats equal to or better than the Bolt, or it is a fail. So, that means it has to be faster, get better than 238 EPA range, and have the same basic options found on the Bolt.

No. You forgot one thing. Being in a Tesla vs being in a Chevy, and I say this as a Chevy fan.

So no, M3 does not need to beat Bolt in spec, it just has to be at the same level. The free OTA update on the Tesla vs the Bolt also plays in Tesla's favor in many people's minds.

 

[jcanoe]

Tesla has to deliver the M3, on schedule, to further its dominance in the EV luxury car market ahead of Mercedes, Porsche/Audi, BMW and maybe Jaguar. Those are the brands that Tesla will soon be competing with for the upper income EV buyer. To this group of buyers price is a secondary consideration after performance, luxury, safety and convenience. They might buy a Chevrolet for their children to drive to school but these buyers will only drive a prestige brand. After Tesla delivers the M3, why not a stretch Model S limousine?

 

[khalfyard]

After Tesla delivers the M3, why not a stretch Model S limousine?

I'm kind of amazed that from a marketing point of view, this doesn't exist.

I'm also kind of amazed that Tesla doesn't get its vehicles into blockbuster film car chases. Bond driving a Tesla? Fast and the (quietly) Furious? Mission Impossible, etc. etc.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm kind of amazed that from a marketing point of view, this doesn't exist.

I'm also kind of amazed that Tesla doesn't get its vehicles into blockbuster film car chases. Bond driving a Tesla? Fast and the (quietly) Furious? Mission Impossible, etc. etc.

Product placement is expensive. But Model Ss have appeared on TV shows because an actor or director with one chose to put them in.

 

[bro1999]

I'm kind of amazed that from a marketing point of view, this doesn't exist.

I'm also kind of amazed that Tesla doesn't get its vehicles into blockbuster film car chases. Bond driving a Tesla? Fast and the (quietly) Furious? Mission Impossible, etc. etc.

Even if it was in a movie, 99% chance they would add fake engine sounds.

 

[Bacardi]

Tesla has to deliver the M3, on schedule, to further its dominance in the EV luxury car market ahead of Mercedes, Porsche/Audi, BMW and maybe Jaguar. Those are the brands that Tesla will soon be competing with for the upper income EV buyer. To this group of buyers price is a secondary consideration after performance, luxury, safety and convenience. They might buy a Chevrolet for their children to drive to school but these buyers will only drive a prestige brand. After Tesla delivers the M3, why not a stretch Model S limousine?

The latest round of luxury EV offerings we know about, while extremely limited specs, are not expected to compete with Tesla...They'll probably be far more expensive and offer less specs...If you're a "Porsche guy" then you may stick with Porsche but I expect that to be the extreme minority especially since odds are no one for the time being is expected to beat Tesla in the performance dept...

I don't understand why Tesla doesn't make Golf carts, the majority of people who play golf and rich and would love to show off a luxury golf cart...I like the limo idea but ride/car sharing with EVs doesn't make a ton of sense with to the amount of time needed to charge...Would need to pay to add a dedicated supercharger to the limo's "home base" because you can't rely on public SCers being vacant when "time is money"...

 

[jupitermoon]

Frankly what would stop me from buying into Tesla products is Elon Musk himself. I think he's a pompous ahole. Some may argue he deserves to be and has earned it. In my book, no one has earned anything to be an ahole. Being a decent human being and not being a egotist speaks far more about a person than the opposite.

For example, there were some exchanges with potential buyers and Musk regarding if the Model 3 will get a gauge cluster or HUD. The exchanges were very one sided meaning that the questions asked were met with NO and NO and "you won't care"....in reference to the people who are wanting or asking for either gauge clusters or HUDs.

For one, who the hell is he to tell me what one will care about or not? Not everyone is falling for this BS autopilot garbage or autonomous driving nonsense. Some people do want to drive a car and enjoy it and not have all those added wastes of money on their cars.

Second, act like a decent human being Musk. If it wasn't for the few hundred thousand suckers who put money down on his wet dreams and "geek visions"...as if it's unique or something....he'd be somewhat closer to counting how many ramen noodles are in his bowl.

The thing is we have no one to blame but ourselves for creating characters like these....peoples' blind undying fanboyism and worship for individuals such as Musk...who..in reality....are far smaller in accomplishment stature than they are made out to be.

With more competition coming, Tesla is going to stay a niche market vehicle like it has up until now. His moving to China or linking with the Chinese only goes to show that at the end of the day, he sells himself out as much as the next guy.