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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)

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Tesla may produce a high end variant of the Model 3 with:

80 kWh battery for 300 mile range
Capable of 0-60 mph in under 4 seconds
All wheel drive

All of this for a guesstimate of $60K.

If they build this car people will buy them.

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/news/a28654/tesla-model-3-does-0-60-in-under-4-seconds-says-leak/

Would you?
My next car will be this one, unless someone else comes in and changes the game, A LOT, which i strongly doubt.

Tesla pretty much slapped everyone else silly with this car. Already over 200,000 orders and its scheduled to come out in 1.5 years. Autopilot, glass roof, a lot more storage, 215 mile range, 15 inch screen, automatic updates, free recharge network, which will double in size before it comes out. And VERY fast.

I love my Volt, but if the Tesla 3 would have been out it would have been a no brainer, only problem is what will be the wait times?
 

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My next car will be this one, unless someone else comes in and changes the game, A LOT, which i strongly doubt.

Tesla pretty much slapped everyone else silly with this car. Already over 200,000 orders and its scheduled to come out in 1.5 years. Autopilot, glass roof, a lot more storage, 215 mile range, 15 inch screen, automatic updates, free recharge network, which will double in size before it comes out. And VERY fast.

I love my Volt, but if the Tesla 3 would have been out it would have been a no brainer, only problem is what will be the wait times?
You guys in Canada must have a different calendar from us in the south...:rolleyes:
And this is for those special few who will actually get a Model 3 at the end of 2017...:)
https://countingdownto.com/countdown/tesla-model-3-updated-countdown-clock
 

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Tesla may produce a high end variant of the Model 3 with:

80 kWh battery for 300 mile range
Capable of 0-60 mph in under 4 seconds
All wheel drive

All of this for a guesstimate of $60K.

If they build this car people will buy them.

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/news/a28654/tesla-model-3-does-0-60-in-under-4-seconds-says-leak/

Would you?
This is a "report", not a real car.

Wait until a real car is made that can be reviewed by auto magazines, then decide.

All of this Tesla Motor hype makes me remember the phrase: "A bird in hand is worth two in the bush" but with EVs:
"A Bolt EV this year is worth two Model 3s in the future, and cost less!"
 

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This car is competition for BMW M3 and such, not so much the Bolt EV which will be out much earlier and will average much less. My guess is the Bolt EV will be better equipped than a base model 3 with a few exceptions like autopilot.

I was hoping the model 3 would make me go wow, I want that car, but it didn't. I am still trying to decide if I like it, and if they don't fix the interior it is a definite no. Bolt EV has a much better interior design with functional knobs and such for easier and safer control.

I wonder how long it will be before the 35k model 3 is available? For a 60k model 3 I would probably go model S instead. Tesla is really shaking up the luxury car market, but remember they are responding quickly with cars that are some competition, but I think Tesla has the image advantage now. They are more exclusive.
 

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I think this is what you'll be able to buy first but I suspect it will be more than $60K once you add extras like supercharging, autonomy, AWD, and leather. This makes sense. If you're production limited there is no point in selling the cheaper product with less or no margin.
 

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Already over 200,000 orders
A refundable $1000 deposit is not an order. It's not even a commitment. It's a placeholder (and an interest free loan). Bump it to a $5,000 non-refundable deposit and I'll agree it's an order. :)
 

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Makes sense that there will be a high-end variant of the 3. If it's $60k US that's $78,000 CAD. For that kind of money I expect an awesome car. At least there would be a $14,000 after tax rebate here.

The good news is that if you want the top-of-the-line, Tesla will be happy to build it for you. People who reserve the top-end Model X can get them in about a month. I'm sure the Model 3 will be similar.
 

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A refundable $1000 deposit is not an order. It's not even a commitment. It's a placeholder (and an interest free loan). Bump it to a $5,000 non-refundable deposit and I'll agree it's an order. :)
Especially if something more interesting comes along in the next TWO PLUS YEARS that most of this placeholders will be waiting...:rolleyes:
 

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A refundable $1000 deposit is not an order. It's not even a commitment. It's a placeholder (and an interest free loan). Bump it to a $5,000 non-refundable deposit and I'll agree it's an order. :)
Musk is cackling over this in his private moments. He couldn't get a better deal borrowing money from the Fed if he was a bank.
 

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Musk is cackling over this in his private moments. He couldn't get a better deal borrowing money from the Fed if he was a bank.
Which at his current rate of cash burn...will last him 2 months...:rolleyes:

It almost seems like the next generation of Tesla Model E purchasers are helping to finance for the deliveries of Model X Teslas to those that helped finance the deliveries of the Model S units...starting to sound like a Ponzi...:rolleyes:
 

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Which at his current rate of cash burn...will last him 2 months...:rolleyes:
I almost went there but I'm sure the Elon-ites are mad enough at what I did already. By the time a real 3 is available I'll have turned my 1K into 2K. Not too sure Musk won't turn my 1K into 0K. It's all magic until the crash. Seen it twice since 2000 and a few more times if we go to the wayback machine with Mr. Peabody and Sherman.

But HELL YEAH it sounds like a cool car (dream).
 

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I almost went there but I'm sure the Elon-ites are mad enough at what I did already. By the time a real 3 is available I'll have turned my 1K into 2K. Not too sure Musk won't turn my 1K into 0K. It's all magic until the crash. Seen it twice since 2000 and a few more times if we go to the wayback machine with Mr. Peabody and Sherman.

But HELL YEAH it sounds like a cool car (dream).

Electric-car makers already have a cautionary tale to study. Nissan and its partner Renault committed $6 billion to their all-electric Leaf compact, including plans to manufacture 500,000 cars a year. In 2014, they sold 82,602. One factor in the car’s disappointing sales is that it travels just 84 miles between charges. Tesla’s Model S has helped reset the standard at 200 miles, auto executives say.
“The batteries are getting lighter, cheaper, and smaller,” Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan and Renault, told reporters at the Detroit auto show. “This is totally normal with the amount of investment we are all doing. And we will be competing with the 200-mile car.”

Then there is this analysis...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-face-biggest-challenge-history-015913779.html
 

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Electric-car makers already have a cautionary tale to study. Nissan and its partner Renault committed $6 billion to their all-electric Leaf compact, including plans to manufacture 500,000 cars a year. In 2014, they sold 82,602. One factor in the car’s disappointing sales is that it travels just 84 miles between charges. Tesla’s Model S has helped reset the standard at 200 miles, auto executives say.
“The batteries are getting lighter, cheaper, and smaller,” Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan and Renault, told reporters at the Detroit auto show. “This is totally normal with the amount of investment we are all doing. And we will be competing with the 200-mile car.”

Then there is this analysis...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-face-biggest-challenge-history-015913779.html
Kind of a see-saw analysis. Here's one point that really jumps out:

But for whatever reason, they can't roll the metal at anything resembling a pace that 100-plus-year-old automakers would consider a cakewalk.
Tongue-in-cheek: They can't get musk to move his desk out of the way (it's reported his desk is in the middle of the shop where he can be a PITA in any direction equally).

But I'll venture a practical guess here. He's such a pr*ck that he can't keep people around long enough so that those former auto maker execs can execute a production expansion plan. He really is a royal pain. I've worked at a couple of revolving door companies. The first feeling you have is how temporary it all is - and it is.

Okay, that's enough Elon bashing I guess. I really don't care that much. It's a pretty car. Good luck to all the poor souls working there.
 

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Kind of a see-saw analysis. Here's one point that really jumps out:
But for whatever reason, they can't roll the metal at anything resembling a pace that 100-plus-year-old automakers would consider a cakewalk.
This was the point that jumped out to me, but my first inclination is to say this won't be an issue:

On balance, this hasn't been a major challenge for Tesla, up until now. It's been selling $100,000 cars to a well-heeled elite (for the most part) who aren't necessarily in the market for basic transportation, and who aren't canceling an order even if they have to wait a year or two to take delivery.
Those people who are placing their reservations are still part of the early adopters, so they are investing in something they believe in. They, too, are unlikely to be daunted by delayed delivery. That being said, if it takes Tesla three years to produce 200,000 Model 3s, Tesla is likely to outpaced by other auto manufacturers.

On another note, people keep saying that NUMMI is capable of producing 500,000 cars a year, yet under GM/Toyota management, the average production was only 300,000. And something tells me that a Corolla is a less complicated car to build than a Model S,X, or 3.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
This was the point that jumped out to me, but my first inclination is to say this won't be an issue:


On another note, people keep saying that NUMMI is capable of producing 500,000 cars a year, yet under GM/Toyota management, the average production was only 300,000. And something tells me that a Corolla is a less complicated car to build than a Model S,X, or 3.
The Fremont Tesla factory in Fremont was originally a GM factory. It's capacity will depend on how it is fixtured and that will depend on how much Elon wants to spend on it.
 

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Those people who are placing their reservations are still part of the early adopters, so they are investing in something they believe in. They, too, are unlikely to be daunted by delayed delivery.
I could cough up a grand faster than you can blink. I see a deposit as being different from an investment, and the last deposit I put down (for my special order Volt) produced a car in weeks, not years.

On another note, people keep saying that NUMMI is capable of producing 500,000 cars a year, yet under GM/Toyota management, the average production was only 300,000. And something tells me that a Corolla is a less complicated car to build than a Model S,X, or 3.
The article pointed out that EVs are less complicated (fewer parts IIRC). That was part of their quandary with Musk not meeting production goals. I still say he can't keep employees long enough to accomplish this. Any time someone tells him "can't" he fires them. Kinda hard to get things done when you are your own worst enemy.
 

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I could cough up a grand faster than you can blink. I see a deposit as being different from an investment, and the last deposit I put down (for my special order Volt) produced a car in weeks, not years.
But do they see it differently? I could see both sides of the issue, and I think you and I might agree on this. I would rather buy four shares of Tesla stock than put a $1,000 deposit on a car I am not likely to see for three years. Both support the company, but one has the potential to pay both parties in the long run.

The article pointed out that EVs are less complicated (fewer parts IIRC). That was part of their quandary with Musk not meeting production goals. I still say he can't keep employees long enough to accomplish this. Any time someone tells him "can't" he fires them. Kinda hard to get things done when you are your own worst enemy.
Yeah, I saw that, but I'm not sure that I agree. With an ICEV, you are spending more time machining and fabricating. With an EV, you are spending more time on electronics and programming. One could argue that the latter is more challenging. An induction motor is more complicated to build than an ICE, and a battery pack might be more complicated to build than anything found in an ICEV.

If all Tesla is doing is building chassis, body panels, and assembling finished cars at the Tesla Factory (NUMMI), then they might be able to meet the demand. However, they are going to be bottle necked by the production of motors (I'm still not sure where this happens) and the batteries from the still-to-be operational Gigafactory. If they can get over those production hurdles, they should be fine. But they still need to prove that they can.
 

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But do they see it differently? I could see both sides of the issue, and I think you and I might agree on this. I would rather buy four shares of Tesla stock than put a $1,000 deposit on a car I am not likely to see for three years. Both support the company, but one has the potential to pay both parties in the long run.
Buying stock is way smarter than putting down a deposit on "I don't know what I'm getting". Musk might hit the jackpot if he gave preferential order treatment to stockholders (not sure if that's legal though). I give a crap about investing on principle (support for Tesla or EVs in general - that's not a wise investment strategy). I'd invest in a money maker and probably should have weeks ago. The stock is going to get a nice bump now.

Yeah, I saw that, but I'm not sure that I agree. With an ICEV, you are spending more time machining and fabricating. With an EV, you are spending more time on electronics and programming. One could argue that the latter is more challenging. An induction motor is more complicated to build than an ICE, and a battery pack might be more complicated to build than anything found in an ICEV.

If all Tesla is doing is building chassis, body panels, and assembling finished cars at the Tesla Factory (NUMMI), then they might be able to meet the demand. However, they are going to be bottle necked by the production of motors (I'm still not sure where this happens) and the batteries from the still-to-be operational Gigafactory. If they can get over those production hurdles, they should be fine. But they still need to prove that they can.
External logistics are an issue yes, especially with "just in time" manufacturing, but the plant itself has to be capable or it all falls apart. Empty floor space says volumes about where Tesla is on this.

When I walk into a plant with empty floor space my first thought is that something is wrong. That space costs money and it's all loss if it's not producing.
 
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