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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Did I guess it or what? $50,000 was not enough to break even apparently, and after <20,000 cars were delivered in the last year, they are switching to the more expensive Performance AWD models. Those who paid their second deposits on the (cough) First Production RWD, are being pushed back 3-5 months for deliveries.

So a bit of delay, not a biggie? Well no. 3-5 months for an automaker is 3-5 months. For Tesla, that can be up to a year or more. They already pushed early reservation holders back 6 months already before they can order, soon to be a 9 month or 1 year push, but now they are even pushing those who configured and paid deposits. "You can have your car in July, as long as it's not July 2018" seems to the catch.

Yes, we will hear all the excuses. We will be told big numbers. But they are likely to be fiction. I saw my 3rd Model 3 yesterday in the heart of SoCal, where you count the number of Teslas/Bolts/Volts "per day". Karma Reveros are more common than Model 3's as are Lamborghini Huracans. There are perhaps more Jaguar i-Pace EVs in Irvine, California tonight than Model 3's. They are doing dealer training with the cars which have not been released.

Elon Musk needs to step aside. He is not a manufacturing genius. EVERYBODY with any business experience told him to start with the most expensive model, and only after they got their line fully sorted. Well, he did neither and here we are. This quarter will be artificially inflated by universal tax credits donated to them by the citizens of Nevada. The credits will be sold to the casinos to defray gambling profits (LA Times). These are not carbon credits. They are charity from the taxpayers to build a factory. But I'm guessing their most productive quarter in history will show no profits. And 2018 will be another year of losses.

The dream of the Model 3 "middle class" 200mi EV was just that. A dream. That's OK. But Tesla probably cannot sell an EV of any kind for under $65k retail and make a profit under their existing management. They cut their sales commissions, their referral plan, their cheaper models, their free supercharging, their free internet, the swag, the staff, the leather, the FSD, and now they are down to working out of temporary buildings.

Suddenly the Chevrolet Bolt EV appears to be a stroke of pragmatic genius. It can be made with aluminum, steel, glass, and composites. It doesn't require faith or promises to exist. Just engineering and manufacturing know-how is required, not flamethrowers and market cap 10 times true value.

Sadly what sells the best is an unrealistic dream, not a engineered product. Nearly every Model 3/S/X/Roadster sold so far was charity. They lost money 10 years straight making cars. If you drove one off the lot for under $125k, you just made things worse for them.

Personally, I would have bought their $79k Model 3 Performance right off the bat. Now? My 'faith' runneth under after this last insult. How stupid does Elon think his customers and shareholder are? Well he guessed me pretty accurately. I was gullible; I saw the dream, not the reality of the problem.
 

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Place Yo Bets !

When, if ever, will the Fabled, much talked about, $35K Tesla Model 3 be delivered to a customer????


(Remember? It was in the title of every press article about this car.)
 

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I'm not sure why people are so concerned about the $35K price point. Sure, that number may have been a fantasy. But Tesla is making the Model 3, they are making it in higher volumes than any other BEV or plug-in model from any company, and they are selling all of them just as fast as they can make them. You never hear about a Model 3 that has been sitting for sale on a dealer lot for over a year waiting for a buyer, like happens with some other plug in cars. If they decided to sell at a higher price point, that is just Business 101. If a Ford or Chevy dealership had that car to sell, do you think you could walk in with $35K and walk out with a Model 3? Never.

In terms of putting quantities of electric vehicles on the roads, lots of companies are talking about it, some are doing it halfheartedly, and then there is Tesla which is the one that is actually getting it done.
 

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You are missing the point: SpaceX = Tesla producing cars. Why don't people get that? :)

Soon it will be The Boring Company = Tesla producing cars, OpenAI = Tesla producing cars. We already know that Solar City has helped produce more cars.
 

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Yeah, what a terrible company! They've only delivered twice as many plug-ins this year as any other perfectly well-run, non-Musk-polluted car company, so they clearly have no idea what they're doing! I've got my torch and pitchfork, let's go boys! We all know any one of us could grow the first major car company in over 75 years better than those clowns; it's so simple, tons of people are bound to do it any day now, let's go show them how it's done! I'm just so mad at these guys that I inexplicably won't cancel my reservation for one of their cars to show them how I feel, because, uh...
 

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Suddenly the Chevrolet Bolt EV appears to be a stroke of pragmatic genius. It can be made with aluminum, steel, glass, and composites. It doesn't require faith or promises to exist. Just engineering and manufacturing know-how is required, not flamethrowers and market cap 10 times true value.
The Bolt is not a result of genius. Just a well established manufacturing company doing what they know how to do. And we will clearly see this more and more from GM and others.

Yeah, what a terrible company! They've only delivered twice as many plug-ins this year as any other perfectly well-run, non-Musk-polluted car company, so they clearly have no idea what they're doing! I've got my torch and pitchfork, let's go boys! We all know any one of us could grow the first major car company in over 75 years better than those clowns; it's so simple, tons of people are bound to do it any day now, let's go show them how it's done! I'm just so mad at these guys that I inexplicably won't cancel my reservation for one of their cars to show them how I feel, because, uh...
I still think Tesla is riding the crest of a wave, and they could get wiped out at any time. They can be lauded for what they have done, but actually getting to profitability is harder than Musk had in mind. They are selling EVs, but ultimately they are selling cache. When the cache fades a little, and they are up against EVs from other high-end manufacturers, the equation will look different.
 

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The Bolt is not a result of genius. Just a well established manufacturing company doing what they know how to do. And we will clearly see this more and more from GM and others.
Clearly you did grasp the point of his sarcasm. :D
 

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Yes. I was just trying to steer it back into a more serious argument.
So if I understand the more serious argument, this is about Tesla's Musk throwing a lot of bull. Not really news, other than the latest RWD base deliveries being held up further. That and their competitors seem to be able to deliver on their promises, though most are late to the game, GM being the exception.

That and Patrick lost his temper/patience, which is understandable. I know I really hate it when I'm promised a toy I never get. ;)

But I have to be honest, GM really has been under-delivering. Two new EV/PHEV offerings by when? If it was 2019 we'd have seen it by now, if only in camo. The CUV/SUV we thought we were getting turns out to be an ICE Blazer they plan to build in Mexico. I'm tremendously underwhelmed, and having a feeling I can share with Patrick, if directed in a different direction.

The future is electric my azz....... The future is a pickup truck with air ducts in the fenders.

 

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So if I understand the more serious argument, this is about Tesla's Musk throwing a lot of bull. Not really news, other than the latest RWD base deliveries being held up further. That and their competitors seem to be able to deliver on their promises, though most are late to the game, GM being the exception.

That and Patrick lost his temper/patience, which is understandable. I know I really hate it when I'm promised a toy I never get. ;)

But I have to be honest, GM really has been under-delivering. Two new EV/PHEV offerings by when? If it was 2019 we'd have seen it by now, if only in camo. The CUV/SUV we thought we were getting turns out to be an ICE Blazer they plan to build in Mexico. I'm tremendously underwhelmed, and having a feeling I can share with Patrick, if directed in a different direction.

The future is electric my azz....... The future is a pickup truck with air ducts in the fenders.
The future definitely is of the air duct variety, and that's because cars are still sold on emotion and status. That's one of the reasons I think Tesla sells at all. People say: "oh, ah, that is so cool/tough/mean looking, I want it." And then they open their checkbook even though they can't afford it. Or, they say: "look at that fancy/expensive car that rich person is driving (even though it may really be ugly), I want it." And they open their checkbook again even though they can't afford it. That is just car marketing 101.

As for EVs, I won't deny that GM and others are getting out of the blocks slowly, but they are more financially savvy than Musk. They prefer to actually make money on their cars, and so they are moving more slowly. I think as the EV wave breaks, Tesla will have a huge amount of competition, and not be able to keep up.
 

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As for EVs, I won't deny that GM and others are getting out of the blocks slowly, but they are more financially savvy than Musk. They prefer to actually make money on their cars, and so they are moving more slowly.
If the hints we've had are right, GM can't sell an EV with a positive margin either, if not for the need to hit fleet emission standards. But I've not seen where that's a black entry on their ledgers either (I'm not the GM CFO). I'd move slowly on losing too much money too fast too.
 

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If the hints we've had are right, GM can't sell an EV with a positive margin either, if not for the need to hit fleet emission standards. But I've not seen where that's a black entry on their ledgers either (I'm not the GM CFO). I'd move slowly on losing too much money too fast too.
Agreed. And that's probably one of many things driving Tesla's problems. Musk probably speculated that by now the break even on battery tech would allow him to sell a $35K car, but it's just not there yet. And so he's adding options to the models rolled out to keep negative margins as small as possible.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
If the hints we've had are right, GM can't sell an EV with a positive margin either, if not for the need to hit fleet emission standards. But I've not seen where that's a black entry on their ledgers either (I'm not the GM CFO). I'd move slowly on losing too much money too fast too.
All I've heard from GM is that the Bolt EV was engineered to be the first 'for-profit' mass produced EV in the US.
If you look at the components, it's not hard to believe that a fully loaded Bolt is probably already in the black.

Cost was a prime consideration. While some folk claim the car loses $10k per unit to roll one off the line, their words were said for their own financial benefit and perhaps future excuses.

We will see.
 

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All I've heard from GM is that the Bolt EV was engineered to be the first 'for-profit' mass produced EV in the US.
We've also heard from a GM exec that "future" EVs will (finally?) be profitable, which suggested it hasn't happened yet by the way he said it.

If you look at the components, it's not hard to believe that a fully loaded Bolt is probably already in the black.
No it's not hard to believe. A fully loaded M3 might have a positive margin too.

We will see.
I doubt it, unless you have some inside track on the details of GM financials. I don't recall any exec with knowledge letting the cat out of the bag in a direct statement, other than in distant hindsight.

My wife is pretty high up in the bean counting department at her company, with access to a lot of information and I'm always surprised at how much she doesn't know. Below the VP level (she's one pay grade under that) these type of things aren't allowed to be known FWICT.
 

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I will repeat what I have said before, Tesla's failures to deliver most damaging effect was not to their fan base but instead it allowed the other manufacturers to have time to get to market and that will be what hurts Tesla the most. Competitors with name recognition and trust built through decades of production. throw in the pent up demand some had for EVs but wanting it with a storied badge and Tesla simply handed away the Golden goose
 

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To draw a picture is easy. To set up a functioning production line is hard.
 

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...Suddenly the Chevrolet Bolt EV appears to be a stroke of pragmatic genius
...
Personally, I would have bought their $79k Model 3 Performance right off the bat. Now? My 'faith' runneth under after this last insult. How stupid does Elon think his customers and shareholder are? Well he guessed me pretty accurately. I was gullible; I saw the dream, not the reality of the problem.
So are you getting your deposit back then we all can guess (hope). Are you buying a Bolt then instead?

Their sales number conflict with what you are saying. They are selling all they build as fast as they can make them.

The fact they are 3 out of 4 of the top selling US *EVs says it all. Any other company selling about 10K *EV cars per month here in the US? (6250+1520+1450)
 

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Some other news on the Tesla Model 3 that shows how bad Tesla is doing:

Expert Says Tesla Model 3 Battery Pack Is Most Advanced Ever Produced
1) https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-battery-pack-in-depth/

Tesla Model 3 beats runner-up Porsche Boxster to win Time Attack race event
2a) https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-professional-driver-time-attack-race/
2b) https://electrek.co/2018/05/15/tesla-model-3-lap-race-track-video/

Tesla Model 3 Is Now Ranked Among Top 100 Selling Cars In U.S.
3) https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-slides-into-top-100-selling-cars-in-u-s/
 

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But hey GM just related another version of the Equinox and slapped the name Blazer on it and folks will buy ten's of thousand of the things. And not a plug insight.

Let's be honest, GM and Ford and FCA are all about ICE trucks and muscle cars.
 
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