[scottf200]

Elon Musk‏ tweets July 3, 2017

* Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
* Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
* Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

 

[BAZINGA]

This is a game changer. This is a middle finger to all the main stream manufactures draging their feet. Lead, follow or get the hell out of he way.

 

[obermd]

Mary Barra is probably grinning happily that GM got the Bolt out ahead of the Model 3. I'm not saying it will be crap, but the Model 3 can be crap compared to the Bolt and it will still outsell based simply on the Tesla name plate. Anyone coming to market after the Model 3 had better outshine it by quite a bit to be competitive.

 

[Raymondjram]

This is a game changer. This is a middle finger to all the main stream manufactures draging their feet. Lead, follow or get the hell out of he way.

GM did lead TM for the first BEV so TM is following GM seven months after.

 

[Steverino]

GM did lead TM for the first BEV so TM is following GM seven months after.

Fake news! Fake news! haha.

 

[rdunniii]

GM did lead TM for the first BEV so TM is following GM seven months after.

Which TM BEV are you speaking of, the Model S or the Model X vs... what, the Spark BEV?

 

[obermd]

Which TM BEV are you speaking of, the Model S or the Model X vs... what, the Spark BEV?

I read the comment as Bolt vs. Model 3. Tesla's announcement hype about the Model 3 was that was to be the first reasonably priced BEV with a 200+ mile range. GM beat Tesla to the punch by several months.

 

[viking79]

I read the comment as Bolt vs. Model 3. Tesla's announcement hype about the Model 3 was that was to be the first reasonably priced BEV with a 200+ mile range. GM beat Tesla to the punch by several months.

Although they beat Tesla to market, there are about 6000 Bolt EVs unsold on lots, or about half of the US production to date. Look for great deals on Bolt EVs this fall. I honestly don't think any make can compete with Tesla without offerring supercharging and self driving. I am no Tesla fan boy, just observing.

GM had low expectations for the Bolt EV, so much so Tesla fan boys were claiming GM didn't want to sell them and they were compliance only. Tesla fans were claiming they were intentionally limiting supply. Clearly the massive over supply shows they had the opposite problem, too few buyers.

This to me shows buyers really aren't looking for a 240 mile range 35k EV, they are looking for a Tesla. They are image oriented buyers. It is like trying to sell an Android device to an Apple fan, it isn't going to happen unless it is obviously better (why Apple finally went to larger screens years after competition).

 

[samotlietuvis]

Although they beat Tesla to market, there are about 6000 Bolt EVs unsold on lots, or about half of the US production to date. Look for great deals on Bolt EVs this fall. I honestly don't think any make can compete with Tesla without offerring supercharging and self driving. I am no Tesla fan boy, just observing.

+1.

Just had my 1st DC fast charging experience yesterday - definitely not as expected. Unknown to me the Chevy dealership purposely blocked DCFC charger was 24kw unit delivering 19kw - does not even qualify for level 3. Instead of 10 min wait, I waited for 20min. I managed to squeeze my subcompact spark in and get some semi-fast electrons. Better than nothing, but nothing compares or will likely compare to Tesla supercharger network in 5 years or longer...

This is bad news for Bolt for sure...

 

[obermd]

Although they beat Tesla to market, there are about 6000 Bolt EVs unsold on lots, or about half of the US production to date. Look for great deals on Bolt EVs this fall. I honestly don't think any make can compete with Tesla without offerring supercharging and self driving. I am no Tesla fan boy, just observing.

GM had low expectations for the Bolt EV, so much so Tesla fan boys were claiming GM didn't want to sell them and they were compliance only. Tesla fans were claiming they were intentionally limiting supply. Clearly the massive over supply shows they had the opposite problem, too few buyers.

This to me shows buyers really aren't looking for a 240 mile range 35k EV, they are looking for a Tesla. They are image oriented buyers. It is like trying to sell an Android device to an Apple fan, it isn't going to happen unless it is obviously better (why Apple finally went to larger screens years after competition).

I suspect you're very close to the truth. However, GM is indeed testing AV driving using the Bolt and has AV Bolts driving around in some areas. Also the Bolt was initially a "compliance" car in that it was limited to just a few states. GM has recently opened up Bolt sales nationwide.

Unfortunately those states where Tesla is strongest are also the "compliance" states.

 

[obermd]

+1.

Just had my 1st DC fast charging experience yesterday - definitely not as expected. Unknown to me the Chevy dealership purposely blocked DCFC charger was 24kw unit delivering 19kw - does not even qualify for level 3. Instead of 10 min wait, I waited for 20min. I managed to squeeze my subcompact spark in and get some semi-fast electrons. Better than nothing, but nothing compares or will likely compare to Tesla supercharger network in 5 years or longer...

This is bad news for Bolt for sure...

This is a dealership problem. Tesla won't have to deal with this because they own the dealerships. GM doesn't. It's possible the dealership doesn't have the capacity to run the charger at higher power.

 

[viking79]

I suspect you're very close to the truth. However, GM is indeed testing AV driving using the Bolt and has AV Bolts driving around in some areas. Also the Bolt was initially a "compliance" car in that it was limited to just a few states. GM has recently opened up Bolt sales nationwide.

Unfortunately those states where Tesla is strongest are also the "compliance" states.

I am hopeful for super cruise on 2018 Bolt EV, and if course full autonomy on commerical vehicles for Lyft, etc. My fear is Cadillac might try to block GM from including super cruise on a lowly Bolt EV, But they absolutely have to do something if they actually want to compete with Tesla.

Supercharging will be another matter, they should partner with some other makes like Ford to install a few thousand strategically located CCS stations along major highways, or break down and license Supercharging from Tesla. Lobby government for incentives to do this in order to improve PR, "we are fighting to improve fleet emissions, not lobbying to fight CAFE MPG increases"

 

[theflew]

I suspect you're very close to the truth. However, GM is indeed testing AV driving using the Bolt and has AV Bolts driving around in some areas. Also the Bolt was initially a "compliance" car in that it was limited to just a few states. GM has recently opened up Bolt sales nationwide.

Unfortunately those states where Tesla is strongest are also the "compliance" states.

I am hopeful for super cruise on 2018 Bolt EV, and if course full autonomy on commerical vehicles for Lyft, etc. My fear is Cadillac might try to block GM from including super cruise on a lowly Bolt EV, But they absolutely have to do something if they actually want to compete with Tesla.

Supercharging will be another matter, they should partner with some other makes like Ford to install a few thousand strategically located CCS stations along major highways, or break down and license Supercharging from Tesla. Lobby government for incentives to do this in order to improve PR, "we are fighting to improve fleet emissions, not lobbying to fight CAFE MPG increases"

Why would they build another network? If anything they would just invest in one of the current networks.

 

[samotlietuvis]

Why would they build another network? If anything they would just invest in one of the current networks.

Because Chevy's well being does not depend on selling electric cars at this time. Most likely reason to sell Vols / Bolts in CA is to get as many CARB credits it can so more Silverado's can be sold.

Tesla's well being does depend on the superchargers. So they have their own hardware that outperforms and outlasts, and is probably cheapest from any other competitor DCFC charger. And they have crews that install those supercharging stations very fast. Probably the entire permit process is streamlined, same people moving from site to site installing the superchargers. And the superchargers are well maintained. I would be glad to pay $0.40/kwhr to juice up my Spark at Tesla's supercharger .

It would make a good sense for Chevy to team up with fast charger manufacturer and install 4x 50kw stalls in each dealership... On a mass scale this would not cost that much. Then add 8x stall stations along the highways. That's me dreaming, low in the clouds...

Teaming up with Tesla to deploy more superchargers - that's me dreaming high in the clouds...

 

[rmay635703]

GM had low expectations for the Bolt EV, so much so Tesla fan boys were claiming GM didn't want to sell them and they were compliance only. Tesla fans were claiming they were intentionally limiting supply. Clearly the massive over supply shows they had the opposite problem, too few buyers.

they are looking for a Tesla. They are image oriented buyers. It is like trying to sell an Android device to an Apple fan, it isn't going to happen unless it is obviously better (why Apple finally went to larger screens years after competition).

So is the Tesla model 3 more like the Packard Executive, Clipper or Hawk?

Will an economy Tesla keep the image for long?

 

[accelerus]

Mary Barra is probably grinning happily that GM got the Bolt out ahead of the Model 3. I'm not saying it will be crap, but the Model 3 can be crap compared to the Bolt and it will still outsell based simply on the Tesla name plate. Anyone coming to market after the Model 3 had better outshine it by quite a bit to be competitive.

They beat the Tesla by a few months, but does that really matter when they are having a hard time selling any of them? Total sales figures are right around 8K currently.

Even if 1/2 of the Model 3 reservation holders cancelled, and Tesla *only* sold 200K of them, those are numbers GM could only dream of for the Bolt.

There are those (like me) who don't hold a reservation but fully plan on buying a Model 3 early 2019 after my Volt is paid off. Bolt isn't even on my radar even if they were giving 10K off sticker I'd still rather have the Tesla.

 

[bro1999]

First Model 3's will be "horribly negative margin". Guess that was always expected though.

Colin Michael Langan - UBS Securities LLC

Oh, great. Elon, in the press release, you give comments on margins for the first half of the year. Any broad color on how we should think about margins in the second half, particularly as the Model 3 launches? I mean will that be profitable day one, or is that going to take some time for that to ramp? Any color there?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

(31:05) that it will not be profitable on day one, because of that exponential issue that I mentioned. The early Model 3s will be horribly negative margin, particularly on day one, when I say literally day one. Because you're starting at a tiny, tiny rate, as you spool up this giant machine. So, it's ? like, no company on Earth could ? it's not a function of Tesla. It is like physically impossible. So, you have to get the production rate to some reasonable capacity percentage of the system.

If the capacity of the production system is X, until you are at least like half X, your gross margin is going to be weak, and it's going to be terrible when you're like an order of magnitude below, or if you're 10% of X, or less. It's going to be terrible. But then it'll get really good as you start to approach 100% capacity. Like, then it gets great. And then, as we get to the initial phase of capacity of 5,000 a week, I would expect to see gross margins comparable to that of the Model S and Model X.

Source
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

 

[Bluesideup]

First Model 3's will be "horribly negative margin". Guess that was always expected though.

Colin Michael Langan - UBS Securities LLC

Oh, great. Elon, in the press release, you give comments on margins for the first half of the year. Any broad color on how we should think about margins in the second half, particularly as the Model 3 launches? I mean will that be profitable day one, or is that going to take some time for that to ramp? Any color there?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

(31:05) that it will not be profitable on day one, because of that exponential issue that I mentioned. The early Model 3s will be horribly negative margin, particularly on day one, when I say literally day one. Because you're starting at a tiny, tiny rate, as you spool up this giant machine. So, it's ? like, no company on Earth could ? it's not a function of Tesla. It is like physically impossible. So, you have to get the production rate to some reasonable capacity percentage of the system.

If the capacity of the production system is X, until you are at least like half X, your gross margin is going to be weak, and it's going to be terrible when you're like an order of magnitude below, or if you're 10% of X, or less. It's going to be terrible. But then it'll get really good as you start to approach 100% capacity. Like, then it gets great. And then, as we get to the initial phase of capacity of 5,000 a week, I would expect to see gross margins comparable to that of the Model S and Model X.

Source
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Hey Bro,

Isn't this Collin the same guy that has been trying to get people to sell their Tesla stock for the past year even though if they did that they would have lost out on 67% returns?

Don't you just hate it when short sellers get desperate and try and make a news story out of nothing?

I mean haven't we learned from all the fake news that was out there about the Volt and the Bolt yet you hatred of everything Tesla comes out and you can't help yourself from posting the same garbage that we had to endure?

Of course when you have the first cars coming off a line you just spent a Billion dollars on it is going to have a negative margin. This is just as bad as when the press said the volt cost $140,000 to produce when it first came out.

Funny thing is that Tesla probably spent just a little more than GM to produce the M3 vs the Bolt but it will ramp up production so fast and to such a degree that the costs associated with the initial production will soon be a minuscule figure in the overall price.

Oh BTW didn't we bet where the price of Tesla stock vs. GM stock was going to be when the first Model 3 was produced? Maybe I will find that thread just to show you once again how totally wrong you are/were about Tesla.

Oh BTW again didn't you swear up and down how Tesla would never get single car out in 2017? I guess you just can't help being wrong when it comes to Tesla.

 

[jbakerjonathan]

They beat the Tesla by a few months, but does that really matter when they are having a hard time selling any of them? Total sales figures are right around 8K currently.

Even if 1/2 of the Model 3 reservation holders cancelled, and Tesla *only* sold 200K of them, those are numbers GM could only dream of for the Bolt.

There are those (like me) who don't hold a reservation but fully plan on buying a Model 3 early 2019 after my Volt is paid off. Bolt isn't even on my radar even if they were giving 10K off sticker I'd still rather have the Tesla.

I'm curious as to why you would prefer the Model 3 - size, access to the supercharging stations, or what? And will the Tesla stations be free to Model 3 owners, or will additional money be required? I'm not knocking your preference, just trying to understand.

In driving his Bolt EV in the 2017 REFUEL EV Race timed best lap, Billy Kwan came in sixth and ahead of 15 other drivers of Model 3s, prototypes and conversions. It is a peppy car!

 

[Norton]

>...Tesla's well being does depend on the superchargers. So they have their own hardware that outperforms and outlasts, and is probably cheapest from any other competitor DCFC charger.

>>.... I would be glad to pay $0.40/kwhr to juice up my Spark at Tesla's supercharger .

>>>It would make a good sense for Chevy to team up with fast charger manufacturer and .... That's me dreaming, low in the clouds...

>>>>Teaming up with Tesla to deploy more superchargers - that's me dreaming high in the clouds...

>Where does this statement come from? Have DCFC stations been breaking down and not putting out their rated power, 24kW or 50kW?

>>Me too. Especially since T is now charging owners for power after the free electrons are used up.
Only the Spark is still not going to do a road trip compared to a Bolt.

>>Why just Chevy when there are so many car brands with DCFC capability?

>>>> Yep, this is the dream! T made the statement that "they are game to share technology/patents".

What's the latest on the Bolt being capable of >50kW DCFC?