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Because of pent up demand. What will sales be after the water from the opened sluice gates have subsided. There are only so many $35,000 cars you can sell for $50,000 - $55,000. The more EV's that are sold the more infrastructure will be built, the more EV's you will sell and so on. Just talked to my neighbour down below who was a sales manager for local Chrysler dealer a few years back and now goes round the world for various companies to get their dealerships more profitable and more consistent across the board (service wise) and he said he was thinking of getting an EV/PHEV to replace his other car.
 

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The more EV's people see on the road the better.
 

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I'm FINALLY starting to see them around my area. Took a while. Definitely not as distinctive as the Model S, but not a bad looking car. However, I almost would rather shell out for a CPO Model S at about the same price point.
 

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I'm FINALLY starting to see them around my area. Took a while. Definitely not as distinctive as the Model S, but not a bad looking car. However, I almost would rather shell out for a CPO Model S at about the same price point.
Yah, have seen two here now. A silver one that was fairly innocent looking and a matte black one. At least I presume it was matte black, and not just that dusty.
 

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Because of pent up demand. What will sales be after the water from the opened sluice gates have subsided. There are only so many $35,000 cars you can sell for $50,000 - $55,000. The more EV's that are sold the more infrastructure will be built, the more EV's you will sell and so on. Just talked to my neighbour down below who was a sales manager for local Chrysler dealer a few years back and now goes round the world for various companies to get their dealerships more profitable and more consistent across the board (service wise) and he said he was thinking of getting an EV/PHEV to replace his other car.
Actually, as reported on the earnings call this afternoon the top trade ins for the Model 3 are:
Toyota Prius
BMW 3
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Nissan Leaf

And thats at the 50 to 55K price level.
Its clearly a car that can draw people from lower priced vehicles.
And when the 35k model is made, announced for the end of this year, I doubt there will be much lack of demand.
 

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Actually, as reported on the earnings call this afternoon the top trade ins for the Model 3 are:
Toyota Prius
BMW 3
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Nissan Leaf

And thats at the 50 to 55K price level.
Its clearly a car that can draw people from lower priced vehicles.
And when the 35k model is made, announced for the end of this year, I doubt there will be much lack of demand.
People have had 3 years to save, but I've heard from a number of people who are really stretching just to afford the $50,000 version.

That being said, 14,250 units is really low given the quoted production numbers, but apparently, they are seeing a four week or so delay between production and delivery.

Also, given all of the incentives they are throwing out to entice new buyers of the more expensive versions, I wonder how much more demand there is left for the >$50,000 variants. I just received an email letting me know that I could drop $2,500 and jump to the front of the line if I wanted an AWD/performance model. They also added the performance variant to the referral program, and they are also now offering free Supercharging for life. I can't see how they would be doing any of that if they had more than a couple of months of demand left.
 

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Elon said the Model 3/S/X are all profitable, and sales were at an all time high.
But they lost cash at the rate of $57,000,000 a week. Assuming their legacy models/products were all break even, at 5,000 a week Model 3 production, that's $11,430 loss for every Model 3 they produced.

Now they are trying to push the $64,000-$78,000 Model 3 Performance by giving Free Supercharging. They had already reduced the base price.

The hopes and dreams of 3rd quarter profits lie entirely with how many Performance Model 3's they can sell now. Expect them to export ASAP when domestic orders fall.

Like I said in 2016, they cannot make a $35k car at a profit the way they do things. They need to hire some serious engineers if they want to get the price down there.

I suspect they really did not make money on Models 3's at $50k+, or they would not be pushing the Performance edition so hard and so far ahead of schedule, or bother reducing the base price. If the RWD made money, they would not have to prod people so hard to upsell a car that's already $14,000 over the original advertised price.
 

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Elon said the Model 3/S/X are all profitable, and sales were at an all time high.
But they lost cash at the rate of $57,000,000 a week. Assuming their legacy models/products were all break even, at 5,000 a week Model 3 production, that's $11,430 loss for every Model 3 they produced.

Now they are trying to push the $64,000-$78,000 Model 3 Performance by giving Free Supercharging. They had already reduced the base price.

The hopes and dreams of 3rd quarter profits lie entirely with how many Performance Model 3's they can sell now. Expect them to export ASAP when domestic orders fall.

Like I said in 2016, they cannot make a $35k car at a profit the way they do things. They need to hire some serious engineers if they want to get the price down there.

I suspect they really did not make money on Models 3's at $50k+, or they would not be pushing the Performance edition so hard and so far ahead of schedule, or bother reducing the base price. If the RWD made money, they would not have to prod people so hard to upsell a car that's already $14,000 over the original advertised price.
Fiat is reportedly losing $14,000 to $20,000 on each 500e they sell and asking people not to buy them but have to be in the market to be up with the technology for future needs. There is one of those driving around but no 3's , never even seen an S except at a car show. The Tesla superchargers are always empty. While the 3 would qualify for $5,000 rebate (off price) and $6,000 off price for scrapping your trade in, the S wouldn't as they are over the cut off price.
 

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Also, given all of the incentives they are throwing out to entice new buyers of the more expensive versions, I wonder how much more demand there is left for the >$50,000 variants.
Like I said in 2016, they cannot make a $35k car at a profit the way they do things. They need to hire some serious engineers if they want to get the price down there.
You guys are ridiculous. "All the incentives." Laugh, laugh, chuckle, eye-roll. They added the Performance model to the referral program. Free supercharging is worth less than $500 for most drivers (that is 25,000 miles of supercharging - which is extreme - at $0.20 per minute which is the cost here where I live because the Model 3 actually charges at 2 KWH per minute on the current SC network and 50% faster than that on the next gen unlike the antiquated technology available on *other* cars which only manages less than half of that). In any case, "all the incentives" is a maximum of $1,250 over the first 100,000 miles assuming you charged half of all your electricity at a supercharger (which almost no one does).

GM was throwing $2,500 straight up rebate at the Bolt in CA last year and they are throwing another $1,500 CCR right now, plus subsidized lease rates. Still cannot sell them in any numbers. Here in Texas (Tesla's second largest market, btw) GM gets an extra $2,500 straight up state cash rebate that Tesla's are not eligible for because GM and the dealer lobby (yes, I was there when the GM regional rep was lobbying for this) stitched up the law to prevent them from applying to Teslas.

Guess what: none of it makes a darn bit of difference as the Model 3 - despite all the giveaways from GM - is still outselling it 12 to 1. In the last five months alone, there have been more model 3 sales in the US than Bolt sales in 2016, 2017, and 2018 YTD combined. What rot.

And Qinsp - who has been wrong on virtually every one of his Tesla predictions including pushing the foolish short position (how's that working for you?) - says that his engineering assessment is that the car cannot be profitable at $35k. Meanwhile three different teardown experts in the US and in Germany think otherwise. But, hey, what do they know, right? They just went piece by piece through the entire car. You obviously have much more engineering insight.

Maybe the apologists are right and the Bolt is "production limited." What does that mean exactly? GM is incapable of building EVs as fast as Tesla? Maybe they need some help from Fremont. Or is it just that GM is incapable of selling it electric Chevy Sonic at $43,000 while still making a profit. Perhaps they need some "serious engineering help" to get them there. Or, maybe it is the case that GM *can* build them faster and *is* making a profit and people *do* want to buy them, but GM simply chooses not to because they are propping up the ICE business?

Tesla has created an electric vehicle that is setting new sales records every month. We should celebrate the fact that an American Car startup has achieved this and pushed the entire industry along with it. The anti-Tesla trolls on this site are just embarrassing themselves now.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
I'm FINALLY starting to see them around my area. Took a while. Definitely not as distinctive as the Model S, but not a bad looking car. However, I almost would rather shell out for a CPO Model S at about the same price point.
Personally, I feel a used S will be a money pit after warranty. The parts are very expensive (door handles, MCU, etc). The Model 3 has been designed for inexpensive production and simplicity. I had a '14 Model S P85D as a loaner for a day and while it was nice, it was a boat compared to the 3. The display felt outdated too. My 3 also charged faster at the supercharger (going from 10-80%).
 

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Discussion Starter #12
Sorry, I didn't want the 12:1 thing to be trollish. But I was struck by how big the gap is.
As far as the discrepancy between production and sales, it is definitely in the transit. My May 17th delivery was built in April and took almost three weeks to arrive.

Base model will probably be available in Q2 2019. The AWD and performance and RWD will continue to have decent sales for quite a while. Hopefully international (outside US/Canada) will start in late 2019 with homologation being worked on now.

I also understand Bolt EV sales are weak in the US due to the push for SK export. Certainly, GM will have to make an official MSRP change in mid 2019 with the MY2020 rollout. I hope GM makes some nice upgrades for the mid-cycle MY2020.
 

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You guys are ridiculous. "All the incentives." Laugh, laugh, chuckle, eye-roll. They added the Performance model to the referral program. Free supercharging is worth less than $500 for most drivers (that is 25,000 miles of supercharging - which is extreme - at $0.20 per minute which is the cost here where I live because the Model 3 actually charges at 2 KWH per minute on the current SC network and 50% faster than that on the next gen unlike the antiquated technology available on *other* cars which only manages less than half of that). In any case, "all the incentives" is a maximum of $1,250 over the first 100,000 miles assuming you charged half of all your electricity at a supercharger (which almost no one does).

GM was throwing $2,500 straight up rebate at the Bolt in CA last year and they are throwing another $1,500 CCR right now, plus subsidized lease rates. Still cannot sell them in any numbers. Here in Texas (Tesla's second largest market, btw) GM gets an extra $2,500 straight up state cash rebate that Tesla's are not eligible for because GM and the dealer lobby (yes, I was there when the GM regional rep was lobbying for this) stitched up the law to prevent them from applying to Teslas.

Guess what: none of it makes a darn bit of difference as the Model 3 - despite all the giveaways from GM - is still outselling it 12 to 1. In the last five months alone, there have been more model 3 sales in the US than Bolt sales in 2016, 2017, and 2018 YTD combined. What rot.

And Qinsp - who has been wrong on virtually every one of his Tesla predictions including pushing the foolish short position (how's that working for you?) - says that his engineering assessment is that the car cannot be profitable at $35k. Meanwhile three different teardown experts in the US and in Germany think otherwise. But, hey, what do they know, right? They just went piece by piece through the entire car. You obviously have much more engineering insight.

Maybe the apologists are right and the Bolt is "production limited." What does that mean exactly? GM is incapable of building EVs as fast as Tesla? Maybe they need some help from Fremont. Or is it just that GM is incapable of selling it electric Chevy Sonic at $43,000 while still making a profit. Perhaps they need some "serious engineering help" to get them there. Or, maybe it is the case that GM *can* build them faster and *is* making a profit and people *do* want to buy them, but GM simply chooses not to because they are propping up the ICE business?

Tesla has created an electric vehicle that is setting new sales records every month. We should celebrate the fact that an American Car startup has achieved this and pushed the entire industry along with it. The anti-Tesla trolls on this site are just embarrassing themselves now.
It's funny how specific questions about Model 3 production and deliveries turns into Bolt EV bashing. By the way, multiple tear downs have put the Model 3's materials and labor costs at $28,000. That's a far cry from being "profitable at $35,000."


Sorry, I didn't want the 12:1 thing to be trollish. But I was struck by how big the gap is.
Were you also struck by how big the gap was between the Model 3 and the Model S or the LEAF? Calling out only the Bolt EV is what made the comment trollish.
 

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Tesla has created an electric vehicle that is setting new sales records every month. We should celebrate the fact that an American Car startup has achieved this and pushed the entire industry along with it. The anti-Tesla trolls on this site are just embarrassing themselves now.
There is a difference between being anti-Tesla and being realistic. If they are still losing money selling the high priced, high(er) profit cars, how are they going to make money selling the low(er) priced, lower profit (if any) cars? I'm all for Tesla making good and expanding the EV universe and upping the competition resulting in better cars for less money by everyone. That being said, I wouldn't buy one because they don't meet my requirements, preferences, etc. which doesn't mean they aren't good cars (rushed out the door, high stressed workforce problems not withstanding) and a realization that all cars are going some that have problems regardless of price range. I just don't live in a Tesla Disney world. Tesla doesn't have a magic bullet, there are other cars that are better (and some worse). Just saying, don't drink the Kool Aid.
 

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There is a difference between being anti-Tesla and being realistic. If they are still losing money selling the high priced, high(er) profit cars, how are they going to make money selling the low(er) priced, lower profit (if any) cars? I'm all for Tesla making good and expanding the EV universe and upping the competition resulting in better cars for less money by everyone. That being said, I wouldn't buy one because they don't meet my requirements, preferences, etc. which doesn't mean they aren't good cars (rushed out the door, high stressed workforce problems not withstanding) and a realization that all cars are going some that have problems regardless of price range. I just don't live in a Tesla Disney world. Tesla doesn't have a magic bullet, there are other cars that are better (and some worse). Just saying, don't drink the Kool Aid.
I've long maintained that I wouldn't mind owning a Model 3, and I probably will, eventually, to replace the Volt. However, that being said, owning one wouldn't compel me to badmouth other EV automakers or their products.

I'll criticize individual products based on their strengths and weaknesses, but never as a means to disparage them. Only to inform other people's buying decisions and help those automakers improve their products.
 

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You guys are ridiculous. "All the incentives." Laugh, laugh, chuckle, eye-roll. They added the Performance model to the referral program. Free supercharging is worth less than $500 for most drivers (that is 25,000 miles of supercharging - which is extreme - at $0.20 per minute which is the cost here where I live because the Model 3 actually charges at 2 KWH per minute on the current SC network and 50% faster than that on the next gen unlike the antiquated technology available on *other* cars which only manages less than half of that). In any case, "all the incentives" is a maximum of $1,250 over the first 100,000 miles assuming you charged half of all your electricity at a supercharger (which almost no one does).

GM was throwing $2,500 straight up rebate at the Bolt in CA last year and they are throwing another $1,500 CCR right now, plus subsidized lease rates. Still cannot sell them in any numbers. Here in Texas (Tesla's second largest market, btw) GM gets an extra $2,500 straight up state cash rebate that Tesla's are not eligible for because GM and the dealer lobby (yes, I was there when the GM regional rep was lobbying for this) stitched up the law to prevent them from applying to Teslas.

Guess what: none of it makes a darn bit of difference as the Model 3 - despite all the giveaways from GM - is still outselling it 12 to 1. In the last five months alone, there have been more model 3 sales in the US than Bolt sales in 2016, 2017, and 2018 YTD combined. What rot.

And Qinsp - who has been wrong on virtually every one of his Tesla predictions including pushing the foolish short position (how's that working for you?) - says that his engineering assessment is that the car cannot be profitable at $35k. Meanwhile three different teardown experts in the US and in Germany think otherwise. But, hey, what do they know, right? They just went piece by piece through the entire car. You obviously have much more engineering insight.

Maybe the apologists are right and the Bolt is "production limited." What does that mean exactly? GM is incapable of building EVs as fast as Tesla? Maybe they need some help from Fremont. Or is it just that GM is incapable of selling it electric Chevy Sonic at $43,000 while still making a profit. Perhaps they need some "serious engineering help" to get them there. Or, maybe it is the case that GM *can* build them faster and *is* making a profit and people *do* want to buy them, but GM simply chooses not to because they are propping up the ICE business?

Tesla has created an electric vehicle that is setting new sales records every month. We should celebrate the fact that an American Car startup has achieved this and pushed the entire industry along with it. The anti-Tesla trolls on this site are just embarrassing themselves now.
Well either I'm correct and they are in fact losing money on Model 3's at $50k, or the money is simply flying out a monkey's butt extremely fast.

And I've got TSLA in a technology fund, but no direct ownership of shares any longer. I don't do options or commodities or sell marijuana or go to Vegas to gamble. I have a real job that doesn't involve wishful thinking as part of it's business model.

The problem in 2016 was that they were not making money on $70k cars with 60kWh batteries. Cutting the price in 1/2 was not going to fix that.

I assumed they would release the most expensive version first, so I made a day one on-line reservation. I cancelled it recently. Reservations for US buyers are no longer necessary. But between the time they started Model 3 production (a year ago), and 2018, other automakers didn't sit on their hands.

I never considered the Model S/X as luxury cars, and certainly not the Model 3. And the RWD Model 3 was found to have poor brakes when driven on a closed course. Which is something I do with cars. I'll be in Texas next month beating on other people's cars. This Friday, I'll be autocrossing. The last thing I want is a car you can't get parts for that burns through brakes faster than a real race car.

And along comes a write-in candidate, the Jaguar i-Pace EV400. A better track car and better luxury car. Sure it's out of most people's budget, but so is the Model 3 in the format Tesla wants you to buy. So I'm a 'day one' now for a car that supposedly has a real queue for buyers, and takes real deposits that are refundable. What's not to like?

But the real point is high production of the Model 3 is not clever from a business standpoint until they are making actual money. ie - at the end of the week you have more money in the bank than on Monday. Increasing volume at a net loss per unit is a mistake. I want Tesla to be around 5 years from now. The more choices the better. I'll probably still buy a Model 3. I didn't like the S or X.

It's actually a good thing they are pushing the price up on the Model 3. That's how supply and demand work. Sadly for me, it came too late.

And I still believe the Volt is still the best answer anyone has come up with for vehicle electrification at any price. Until someone comes out with an EV that doesn't define your destinations, the Volt wins. I can't go to Houston Race Park in any EV in a reasonable time. There is no DCFC/SC support in West Texas on the 10.
t

The Jaguar will be a 'toy' for me, but so would a S/X/3. Unnecessary waste of money in exchange for fun. I see the Jaguar as being the 'fun' choice of the toy aisle.
 

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And along comes a write-in candidate, the Jaguar i-Pace EV400. A better track car and better luxury car. Sure it's out of most people's budget, but so is the Model 3 in the format Tesla wants you to buy. So I'm a 'day one' now for a car that supposedly has a real queue for buyers, and takes real deposits that are refundable. What's not to like?
I didn't want to start an argument, so I didn't mention this when a bunch of Tesla Model 3 owners/reservation holders started bad mouthing the Porsche Taycan and talking about how expensive it would be. However, the starting price of the Taycan will be within $10,000 of the top-end Model 3, and the Taycan will still be eligible for the Federal Tax Credit (if it is still in place).

As far as the Model 3 is concerned, I think it only has three options to consider: AWD, bigger battery, and Premium Upgrades. Anything more than that, and you should have just spent the same amount of money on a Model S three years ago.
 

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I didn't want to start an argument, so I didn't mention this when a bunch of Tesla Model 3 owners/reservation holders started bad mouthing the Porsche Taycan and talking about how expensive it would be. However, the starting price of the Taycan will be within $10,000 of the top-end Model 3, and the Taycan will still be eligible for the Federal Tax Credit (if it is still in place).

As far as the Model 3 is concerned, I think it only has three options to consider: AWD, bigger battery, and Premium Upgrades. Anything more than that, and you should have just spent the same amount of money on a Model S three years ago.
I went to reserve a Taycan on the day reservations opened, which was recently. $2000. They told me 18-24 months. I probably should have bought a res, but Porsche usually sells their limited cars based on your history of ownership or celebrity. Which I am neither.
 

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I went to reserve a Taycan on the day reservations opened, which was recently. $2000. They told me 18-24 months. I probably should have bought a res, but Porsche usually sells their limited cars based on your history of ownership or celebrity. Which I am neither.
Oh, I thought it was $2,500 as well. Either way, I know that they had a high number of reservations relative to the number of cars they typically sell.

I'm just curious whether their 350 kW chargers located in the public will be accessible to non-Porsche EV owners, or whether they'll use ownership codes to prevent non-Porsche owners from charging there. >_>
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Were you also struck by how big the gap was between the Model 3 and the Model S or the LEAF? Calling out only the Bolt EV is what made the comment trollish.
Simply because the Bolt EV is the only other 200+ EV that's comparable to the Model 3. Once the Kona is out and outselling the BoltEV, I'll compare it to that.

I've been a Bolt EV fan since it was in the concept stage. However, I've been disappointed by GM's lack of support. I've seen it discounted locally by up to $5000 or more and it still doesn't sell well. I really thought sales would hit 30-50k+ units, but that doesn't seem to be the plan.

The upcoming Kona I feel is a subpar EV in some ways. Hyundai/Kia have the cars, they just aren't selling them meaningfully outside of CA/CARB. If GM doesn't fix the pricing, slow charging and inferior seats, I feel the Bolt EV is relegated to low sales.

I haven't even started on the sad shape of CCS charging in the US.

The Model 3 isn't perfect nor "affordable" until next year, but it's hard not to see that it will be outselling everything by a wide margin until the Model Y comes out to eclipse it.
 
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