[Hmoll]

I have three more months on my BMW 528 lease.

But there seems to be some rather attractive incentives in January and I'm not sure if it would make sense to move now.

I don't waste money (it would be wasting ~$2k from my BMW lease. But... the GM Salespersons said that I would, with the current month's incentives, qualify for "you will qualify for 4735 in rebates".

So, do you think they will have other plans next month or in March? Or do I need to move now and waste a little of the money on the BMW?

 

[DonC]

Who knows. However, I would do it now because the upside is minimal and the downside is significant. IOW it's more likely that the incentives go down than up. Since you're on a deadline you can't wait -- doesn't help if you can get an even better deal next August. No doubt some will tell you to wait, and I can see the point, but I'm reminded of the saying: "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered". That's simply another way of saying that trying to time things so you buy EXACTLY at the bottom is never a winning strategy.

 

[Whatstreet]

It is a question of market timing. Jim Cramer says that quote "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered." Given that you have a time constraint because of your current lease, I am leaning towards Don's advice. If there isn't any hurry then I will remind everyone that there is always another deal, it's just a matter of time.

 

[Bacardi]

Extremely high odds those incentives will remain next month...Was reported there were 6K+ Volts sitting on the lots so it wouldn't make sense to abruptly stop the incentives...Also the Bolt is out (in certain states) and while some criticize its looks, front seats, cost or feature choices the driving experience get rave reviews so some would be Volt sales may buy a Bolt EV instead...

 

[llninja]

I don't waste money (it would be wasting ~$2k from my BMW lease. But... the GM Salespersons said that I would, with the current month's incentives, qualify for "you will qualify for 4735 in rebates".

Some would contend a lease is a waste, at the end you have nothing other than the privilege of using that car for a period of time. Plus, you are stuck onto a timeline that may or may not be good the next time around, and you are dooming yourself to a lifetime of car payments unless you break the cycle.

I would ride out the lease, then see what deals you can find. If none exist in 3 months, buy a cheap used car and wait for the deal of the century. Tha used car won't depreciate much since It has already taken most of its beatings, so you can sell it for almost what you paid for it while waiting for that deal. In the words immortalized by Robbie (Jim Henson's Dinosaurs) "There will always be more, that's what more means..."

 

[DonC]

Extremely high odds those incentives will remain next month...Was reported there were 6K+ Volts sitting on the lots so it wouldn't make sense to abruptly stop the incentives...Also the Bolt is out (in certain states) and while some criticize its looks, front seats, cost or feature choices the driving experience get rave reviews so some would be Volt sales may buy a Bolt EV instead...

That's all true but waiting is the wrong answer. It's the wrong answer even if your prediction comes true, which is what I'd predict as well.

The problem is you're trying to gain a couple of hundred bucks while potentially losing a few thousand. The worst that happens if you pull the trigger now is you end up with three extra Volt lease payments. That's a couple of hundred bucks a month. However, you may be able to offset that by getting a 10K lease rather than a 12K lease since for three months you won't use any miles. So let's say you're out $400. If just one of the $1000 incentives goes away you're down $600. If $3000 goes away you're down $2400. You're saying it's likely the incentives will stay. I agree. However, I'm less sanguine they are 4X times or 6X times more likely to stay than go. I'd be OK assuming we'll see the incentives next month, but after that the visibility is poor. And the amount we're talking about is so minor.

The psychological aspect is that when people miss an opportunity they always regret it more than they should. Have seen this many times, more of course in the financial sector. Once people miss an opportunity they never want to "lock in" their losses. They wait longer and end up making it even worse.

FYI when I got the ELR I had a few months left on my Leaf lease. I got it despite the fact the common wisdom was that there would be better deals. Turned out common wisdom was wrong. The ELR was never offered at that low price again. Decisions under uncertainty and all that. Or, as Yogi Berra famously said: "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future".

 

[DonC]

I would ride out the lease, then see what deals you can find. If none exist in 3 months, buy a cheap used car and wait for the deal of the century. Tha used car won't depreciate much since It has already taken most of its beatings, so you can sell it for almost what you paid for it while waiting for that deal. In the words immortalized by Robbie (Jim Henson's Dinosaurs) "There will always be more, that's what more means..."

All you've said is that the OP should buy used since used is a better value than new. Personally I disagree with this. I think used vehicles are priced as they are because used vehicles are more likely to be dogs. Otherwise people would hold them or given them a family member or have a family member or friend buy them, etc. The dogs get traded in or sold to a used car lot. You might get a good deal on a used car but you're just as likely or more likely to get a bad one. Crap shoot.

At these prices even I'm considering getting a new Volt. I really don't need a new one but given the incentives you could get one for something in the 20s, which is unbelievable given what a nice car it is.

 

[KenC]

I would think the later in a model year, the better the incentives get, if there's plenty of dealer inventory.

 

[Bacardi]

That's all true but waiting is the wrong answer. It's the wrong answer even if your prediction comes true, which is what I'd predict as well.

The problem is you're trying to gain a couple of hundred bucks while potentially losing a few thousand. The worst that happens if you pull the trigger now is you end up with three extra Volt lease payments. That's a couple of hundred bucks a month. However, you may be able to offset that by getting a 10K lease rather than a 12K lease since for three months you won't use any miles.

That's a good point; I'll just add that the OP may want to brush up on car buying as there's more to haggling vs the incentives...

 

[llninja]

All you've said is that the OP should buy used since used is a better value than new. Personally I disagree with this. I think used vehicles are priced as they are because used vehicles are more likely to be dogs. Otherwise people would hold them or given them a family member or have a family member or friend buy them, etc. The dogs get traded in or sold to a used car lot. You might get a good deal on a used car but you're just as likely or more likely to get a bad one. Crap shoot.

At these prices even I'm considering getting a new Volt. I really don't need a new one but given the incentives you could get one for something in the 20s, which is unbelievable given what a nice car it is.

I'm not suggesting the Op buy a used volt, just that buying something cheap while waiting for the right deal buys you patience. Being forced to get a car as a lease is ending puts you on a timeline that forces you to get something when it may not be the ideal time to do so. A corworker of mine was so torn when his 2012 lease was ending and 2016 models were not arriving yet. He wanted a gen2, but April of 2015 was not a good time to buy gen2s in IL. Other states got the love first. This will always be the case, I'm just offering a way to break the cycle with a temporary car purchase until the timing works out.

 

[Bacardi]

I'm not suggesting the Op buy a used volt, just that buying something cheap while waiting for the right deal buys you patience. Being forced to get a car as a lease is ending puts you on a timeline that forces you to get something when it may not be the ideal time to do so. A corworker of mine was so torn when his 2012 lease was ending and 2016 models were not arriving yet. He wanted a gen2, but April of 2015 was not a good time to buy gen2s in IL. Other states got the love first. This will always be the case, I'm just offering a way to break the cycle with a temporary car purchase until the timing works out.

You have a point that you do have a timeline, however there are options...Lease extensions have extremely high odds of being approved, there's also pull ahead option and you could always buy it out...But let's compare to purchasing, whatever the sales price your friend lease for would apply to purchase, say a sales price of $30K? Three years later the thing would probably get $15K when he tries to sell it so they could buy the Gen2 they wanted...

 

[mr_raider]

Finish out your lease. It's a Volt, not a CTS-V. There will be plenty of stock around in May. If you can't get a car then, check dealers elsewhere in the country. If no GM dealer can get you a car, go buy something from the competition.

The only risk in waiting too long in the year, is that color and option package choice will dwindle.

 

[llninja]

You have a point that you do have a timeline, however there are options...Lease extensions have extremely high odds of being approved, there's also pull ahead option and you could always buy it out...But let's compare to purchasing, whatever the sales price your friend lease for would apply to purchase, say a sales price of $30K? Three years later the thing would probably get $15K when he tries to sell it so they could buy the Gen2 they wanted...

My friend wanted a gen2 at the end of his gen1 lease. He ended up settling for a used gen 1 and is now "stuck" and resigned to driving it into the ground because he was planning to buy and hold his next volt anyway. He would have preferred getting a gen2 at the time, but GM's release schedule didn't coincide with his timeline. He does not want to get burned yet again trading in cars every few years.

 

[Bacardi]

My friend wanted a gen2 at the end of his gen1 lease. He ended up settling for a used gen 1 and is now "stuck" and resigned to driving it into the ground because he was planning to buy and hold his next volt anyway. He would have preferred getting a gen2 at the time, but GM's release schedule didn't coincide with his timeline. He does not want to get burned yet again trading in cars every few years.

Being "stuck" is his choice..."Wanting" a newer Gen2 is his choice...Many here have reported getting a great lease price on a Gen1, upon turn in the buyout was significantly higher than resale value so they made the choice to turn it in and buy an used Gen1 at rock bottom prices...Also often renting a car away from an airport for a couple of months is be surprisingly affordable...There are affordable alternatives to being stuck...