Even with the slow start, I think the Bolt EV is on track for 30,000 domestic sales in 2017. It's still difficult to determine exactly what the production bottleneck is, but GM could easily double that number if they opened up sales in Canada, Europe, and Korea.My brother just got one in Houston. I would expect numbers will go up as they are more available and people get to ride/drive in one. I am pretty sure the market is not as big as the M3 market, but the bolt could do 25k this year.
That will indeed be interesting. What will also be interesting is how the Bolt fares against Leaf 2.0 and for that matter the BEV Niro. This fall is shaping up to be the biggest period for EVs since Volt and Leaf 1.0 came out in my opinion.Next month (Aug) should be the first month Bolts are on dealer lots in all 50 states. Should be interesting what sales numbers are then.
Hey Bro let me help you with those numbers...under 2,000. The bolt is available to just about anyone in the Country that wants one. The people who were excited already have theirs. With the leaf coming out and the Model 3 coming online. The fact that right now there are no other electric cars that go over 200 miles under $40,000 and yet somehow when the bolt gets competition it is going to sell more?Next month (Aug) should be the first month Bolts are on dealer lots in all 50 states. Should be interesting what sales numbers are then.
I think the Leaf 2.0 market is going to be limited to Nissan fans/GM haters. It will be released with about 160 miles of EPA range, which is still far too low to win over most current ICE drivers.That will indeed be interesting. What will also be interesting is how the Bolt fares against Leaf 2.0 and for that matter the BEV Niro. This fall is shaping up to be the biggest period for EVs since Volt and Leaf 1.0 came out in my opinion.
Actually, I believe that is exactly what will happen. The Leaf 2.0 and Model 3 are essentially free marketing for the Bolt EV, and the biggest hurdle the Bolt EV has to overcome is consumer awareness. People will see the Leaf 2.0 and ask, "Why is that the same cost as the Bolt EV that has nearly 100 miles more range, a more powerful motor, and equivalent utility and cargo space?" People will look at the Model 3 and ask, "When can I get a 200+ mile range EV with fast charging?" Well, you can't get a Model 3 for another year and a half, but the Bolt EV is available now.Hey Bro let me help you with those numbers...under 2,000. The bolt is available to just about anyone in the Country that wants one. The people who were excited already have theirs. With the leaf coming out and the Model 3 coming online. The fact that right now there are no other electric cars that go over 200 miles under $40,000 and yet somehow when the bolt gets competition it is going to sell more?
You keep thinking that but very few are going to cross shop a bolt in it current form with a model 3. The fact that the bolt is available now with over 400,000 reservation holders for the model 3, with wait list as long as a year and a half for anyone putting a deposit down today yet the bolt numbers are still as low as they are just proves that most people don't want a bolt as it is not a good looking car especially compared with the model 3. Along with the numerous other advantages that Tesla has makes the bolt a hard sell especially when GM and their dealerships don't really want to even push the bolt.I think the Leaf 2.0 market is going to be limited to Nissan fans/GM haters. It will be released with about 160 miles of EPA range, which is still far too low to win over most current ICE drivers.
Actually, I believe that is exactly what will happen. The Leaf 2.0 and Model 3 are essentially free marketing for the Bolt EV, and the biggest hurdle the Bolt EV has to overcome is consumer awareness. People will see the Leaf 2.0 and ask, "Why is that the same cost as the Bolt EV that has nearly 100 miles more range, a more powerful motor, and equivalent utility and cargo space?" People will look at the Model 3 and ask, "When can I get a 200+ mile range EV with fast charging?" Well, you can't get a Model 3 for another year and a half, but the Bolt EV is available now.
Who said anything about cross shopping? The very existence of the Model 3 builds awareness, which will help the entire market sector grow.You keep thinking that but very few are going to cross shop a bolt in it current form with a model 3.
This is actually the Bolt EV's biggest challenge. We still have a large portion of the population that is not interested in buying electric cars. On the other, EV friendly side, we have a large population that attempts to invalidate every GM electric offering. If supposed EV advocates actually promoted the Bolt EV as a valid consideration, it would probably be selling much better. But instead, it was actually gear heads who were singing the Bolt EV's praises and giving it high marks.The other challenge is, it's a gm.
Please show me one person who thought they were getting a model S. You can't but that is your way to rationalize the fact that 400,000 people put money down on a car they most certainly knew what they were getting.Who said anything about cross shopping? The very existence of the Model 3 builds awareness, which will help the entire market sector grow.
Also, don't pretend the people who dropped a $1,000 deposit actually knew what they were getting. They did it purely because it was the cool thing to do. Many actually believed they were reserving a cheaper Model S.
This is actually the Bolt EV's biggest challenge. We still have a large portion of the population that is not interested in buying electric cars. On the other, EV friendly side, we have a large population that attempts to invalidate every GM electric offering. If supposed EV advocates actually promoted the Bolt EV as a valid consideration, it would probably be selling much better. But instead, it was actually gear heads who were singing the Bolt EV's praises and giving it high marks.
No, they didn't know what they were getting because the details were, and are still very vague..... the fact that 400,000 people put money down on a car they most certainly knew what they were getting.
.... and one day woke up and said hey Facebook said the model 3 was cool lets put a deposit down on it. ...
I guarantee you that at least a quarter of those people are expecting to get a car that can five adults carry 0-60 in five seconds, with Autopilot, for about $30k after "rebate". They won't understand "tax credit" at first, they won't be happy paying for things they expect should be included if the hardware is already there, and they will spend a lot of breath justifying how 200 miles and a Supercharger is somehow life changingly better than 240 miles and being "stuck with" CCS, even though they only drive 30-40 miles a day, 360 days a year.Please show me one person who thought they were getting a model S. You can't but that is your way to rationalize the fact that 400,000 people put money down on a car they most certainly knew what they were getting.
Obviously, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. It will be very interesting to see how well the Model 3 does over the coming year or two. I have no doubt that it's going to sell in unprecedented numbers, the big questions in my mind are whether (a) those numbers will be enough to sustain Tesla's very highly valued stock price, and (b) whether they will suck all the buyers out of the market or stimulate it.Please show me one person who thought they were getting a model S. You can't but that is your way to rationalize the fact that 400,000 people put money down on a car they most certainly knew what they were getting.
Then again I mean you could be right and we could just have 400,000 morons with $1,000 dollars burning a hole in their pocket and one day woke up and said hey Facebook said the model 3 was cool lets put a deposit down on it. Or maybe not.
Apparently, there were enough that Elon had to address it directly:Please show me one person who thought they were getting a model S.
So, they didn't know what it was going to look like? They didn't know how much it was going to cost? They didn't know how far it would go on a charge? They didn't know the 0-60 times?No, they didn't know what they were getting because the details were, and are still very vague.
Do you know exactly what you are getting and the cost?
Do you really think that all of this exaggerated number of place holders are fully knowledgeable about this car and are not just FB peer pressured into hopping on the Big Name Band Wagon?
You can tell some are just big ol'Fanbois .
He wasn't just "explaining the differences", he was asking people not to have false expectations. When he tweeted: "Am noticing that many people think Model 3 is the "next version" of a Tesla, like iPhone 2 vs 3. This is not true. ", he was specifically reminding people that the Model 3 was not going to be Model S-like.So, by Elon explaining the differences between the two you extracted that people thought they were buying a model S when they put their money down?
Nobody has been saying that 400,000 people were duped. What they are saying is that some people seem to have inflated expectations of what Tesla can deliver for $35,000, and that they may have second thoughts when they see what they're getting. It's probably going to be a minority of people on the wait list, but to deny that it will be true for at least some people is to be the same kind of uncritical "fanboy" that you're accusing others of being.I know this is hard for so many of the Chevy fanbois to understand that you have to make wild eyed accusations that 400,000 people were somehow fooled into thinking they were getting a really good deal on the model S as the only reason that anyone would order a model 3 over a bolt.