[Kraven]

I put a deposit in last year and received my email to configure when they opened it up to everyone. I guess in hindsight I didn’t need to give Tesla that deposit last year. I’m not ready to buy right now (thought I might need to buy a new car this Fall, but that may not be the case now), and as time has passed I’ve really, really liked the Premier Volt I’m driving. My total daily commute is about 50 miles so enough electric range for the round trip. On days where I need to make other stops, I just pop over to Hold mode at freeway speeds and sip gas in the 44 MPG range, pop back over to electric as I’m getting off the freeway and manage my electric capacity that way.

Also, as time has passed you begin to see other entrants, and potential entrants, into the EV market. From the Hyundai Ioniq available now (longer range model not too far off) and Jaguar, GM and others continuing to develop their EV offerings.

For me as I mentioned, I don’t really need a new car right now so I have the luxury of time. That being said, I don’t see that there is any longer a reason to have the reservation. I guess you could say that when they eventually come out with a $35K or $40K model you might get preference, but I think at that point the market will have further caught up, if not completely caught up, with Tesla and Tesla will be happy to sell a car (or a promise of a delivery of one at some future point) to anyone, reservation or not.

Even now I see another thread asking how much more is a TM3 worth than a Premier Volt? As configured right now, you have to spend $5XK to get into a TM3, with a Premier Volt upwards of $20K less. I know the TM3 will perform better, has much more electric range (without a gas backup), and in some people’s opinion looks better. For me I’m not sure I’m willing to spend that much more for the Tesla.

But the real question I have, and I can’t come up with a great reason not to, is why I shouldn’t cancel my TM3 reservation today?

 

[scottf200]

But the real question I have, and I can’t come up with a great reason not to, is why I shouldn’t cancel my TM3 reservation today?

Based on everything you said (daily commute, size, looks, $ wanting to spend) it sounds like you should cancel and get your money back then you have more choices in the future when you are more ready.

 

[Qinsp]

I put a deposit in last year and received my email to configure when they opened it up to everyone. I guess in hindsight I didn’t need to give Tesla that deposit last year. I’m not ready to buy right now (thought I might need to buy a new car this Fall, but that may not be the case now), and as time has passed I’ve really, really liked the Premier Volt I’m driving. My total daily commute is about 50 miles so enough electric range for the round trip. On days where I need to make other stops, I just pop over to Hold mode at freeway speeds and sip gas in the 44 MPG range, pop back over to electric as I’m getting off the freeway and manage my electric capacity that way.

Also, as time has passed you begin to see other entrants, and potential entrants, into the EV market. From the Hyundai Ioniq available now (longer range model not too far off) and Jaguar, GM and others continuing to develop their EV offerings.

For me as I mentioned, I don’t really need a new car right now so I have the luxury of time. That being said, I don’t see that there is any longer a reason to have the reservation. I guess you could say that when they eventually come out with a $35K or $40K model you might get preference, but I think at that point the market will have further caught up, if not completely caught up, with Tesla and Tesla will be happy to sell a car (or a promise of a delivery of one at some future point) to anyone, reservation or not.

Even now I see another thread asking how much more is a TM3 worth than a Premier Volt? As configured right now, you have to spend $5XK to get into a TM3, with a Premier Volt upwards of $20K less. I know the TM3 will perform better, has much more electric range (without a gas backup), and in some people’s opinion looks better. For me I’m not sure I’m willing to spend that much more for the Tesla.

But the real question I have, and I can’t come up with a great reason not to, is why I shouldn’t cancel my TM3 reservation today?

It's really hard to tell.

If you want a $36,000 Standard Range car, it might help to have a reservation, but probably not. All TSLA staff and investors get first crack, then all existing owners, then all the earlier reservations. It will probably go into Free-For-All-Mode before they get to your reservation date.

The way I see it, it is what it is. People were ordering a month ago with no reservation and are driving their cars. Others reserved on Day One in 2016, and are still awaiting delivery for the exact same car. It's a mess.

My prediction is they will overproduce both the Model 3LR RWD/PUP, and the Model 3 Performance. When they run out of buyers for these, there could be some inventory deals. This happened before with the S.

The prime focus on TSLA is to drive up the share valuation which has been static. This will supercede all other activities this year, including R&D.

I think the Reservation system is now mostly for exports and will have no effect on average car buyers in the US. I might still buy a Model 3 Performance as soon as somebody who works at Tesla can accurately describe what it is they are selling, and there is data on how long deliveries take. But I cancelled my reservation recently because it appears that might actually IMPROVE my delivery date once I order. It almost seems like they consider a reservation a "locked in sale" and a fresh order as "volatile", so they service the fresher orders first.

Tidbit - Should something go wrong, if you have given TSLA $1000 + $2500 for an order, they can keep it all per their contract. If you order without a reservation they can only keep $2500 per contract.

For those in New York, Tesla must deliver your car on schedule or you are off-the-hook. This might be why you see very fast deliveries for NY right now.

 

[Kraven]

Based on everything you said (daily commute, size, looks, $ wanting to spend) it sounds like you should cancel and get your money back then you have more choices in the future when you are more ready.

Agree with half of what you said. I never said much in the way of size or what MY opinion was on looks (I think the TM3 looks great by the way), size is probably similar Volt vs. TM3. I wish the TM3 was a hatchback as I’ve really grown to like that, but the cargo capacity of the TM3 looks really good, large trunk with fold down seats, some extra capacity in the frunk if you need it. I’m actually a fan of Tesla as well as GM and hope Tesla succeeds.

On the daily commute and $ wanting to spend, that’s where you are correct. I emphasize value in my purchases, sometimes too much so perhaps. The Volt offers such a great value for what it delivers for dollar spent. The TM3 would be a nice to have (VERY nice to have) but the value proposition is the question. Also, as noted above, I don’t need a car right now, may not need a new car for about 18 months.

With that in mind, why let them hold the deposit? Is there some benefit reservation holders have any more now that ordering is opened up to everyone?

That is my main question Scott, not so much which is better (or even better value) TM3 or Volt or something else. Nothing more, nothing less. TM3 is an engineering marvel for sure. Whether they have production issues, did a bait and switch on the promise of a $35K model and all that other stuff doesn’t much interest me. Business is business and at the end of the day the market will decide Tesla’s fate or any other manufacturer. If customer satisfaction was any guide here, based on my talks with many Tesla owners, Tesla should do just fine.

 

[Kraven]

Good analysis/info Qinsp, thanks. I’ve been leaning toward canceling the reservation as I see no value in keeping it, no preference offered by Tesla. You corroborate what I’m seeing/hearing.

 

[Qinsp]

I will say Tesla did great on refunding my deposit. It took 3 working days by giving them my ACCT and ROUTING numbers.

It really sucked after 2.3 years to drop it. I knew I was going to cancel when I got passed over during Free-For-All week. I will never know when my Model 3 would have been delivered if kept my reservation. The not knowing sucks the most. But there are people who reserved the same time as me who are still waiting for a delivery date on their Model 3LR/PUP cars. Weird. People are just contacting Tesla and getting a car in 3 weeks without a reservation, and others (with early res) who ordered in April or May haven't received their cars?

So you basically cannot trust Tesla when it comes to scheduling. There are several buyers posting that they were notified when to pick up their cars, time and date, but get contacted on that date there is no car, and must wait another month to 6 weeks.

 

[Kraven]

Good to hear they processed the refund quickly. Strange on how they decide to fulfill orders and the stories of being told to pick up your car on a certain date, date comes and no car. Just goes to show the strength of the brand/following, they can F it up seven ways to Sunday regarding fulfillment, but still people very much want those cars. Like I said above, amazingly well engineered and beautiful vehicle, but it seems the company has a lot of growing up to do. Hopefully they get there soon.

 

[srmarti]

I don't know. I just watched a news article saying that Tesla is getting cancellations faster than orders. Might find something you like better by the time Tesla is ready to deliver. Then again, maybe if enough reservations get cancelled you can order anytime you want.

 

[Mister Dave]

Good to hear they processed the refund quickly. Strange on how they decide to fulfill orders and the stories of being told to pick up your car on a certain date, date comes and no car. Just goes to show the strength of the brand/following, they can F it up seven ways to Sunday regarding fulfillment, but still people very much want those cars. Like I said above, amazingly well engineered and beautiful vehicle, but it seems the company has a lot of growing up to do. Hopefully they get there soon.

I think there are a lot of things changing there. There are a few signs of this happening. Not much talked about but probably most significant is Musk's concern about survival (If we make the $35K 3 right now Tesla will die - paraphrased). Early on he talked about the odds of failure in a laissez faire way. So that's different.

The Dreadnought concept is gone. It looks like there's a strong focus on cost savings and running on revenues rather than diluting equity further (which is not to say they won't further dilute their equity, but the focus looks to be different).

And clearly they're selling what they feel they can make profitably, to the dismay of some reservation holders. I think that may well demonstrate a policy shift.

 

[samotlietuvis]

I think there are a lot of things changing there. There are a few signs of this happening. Not much talked about but probably most significant is Musk's concern about survival (If we make the $35K 3 right now Tesla will die - paraphrased). Early on he talked about the odds of failure in a laissez faire way. So that's different.

The Dreadnought concept is gone. It looks like there's a strong focus on cost savings and running on revenues rather than diluting equity further (which is not to say they won't further dilute their equity, but the focus looks to be different).

And clearly they're selling what they feel they can make profitably, to the dismay of some reservation holders. I think that may well demonstrate a policy shift.

My family has 2 reservations for AWD M3- I am in for $3500, and my brother is in for only $2500.
Hopefully Tesla comes through...

 

[scottf200]

I don't know. I just watched a news article saying that Tesla is getting cancellations faster than orders. Might find something you like better by the time Tesla is ready to deliver. Then again, maybe if enough reservations get cancelled you can order anytime you want.

Can you point to this source please?

Also you do realize that Tesla is one of the MOST shorted stocks don't you? Search: https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+most+shorted+stock

You need to be very careful what/where you read? Does that author have something to gain?

What is the article source? From another article as is common these days? From an 'insider' whispering?

I read both positive and negative articles with many grains of salt. If it does not come from an official source then I question it.

 

[scottf200]

...Also, as noted above, I don’t need a car right now, may not need a new car for about 18 months.

With that in mind, why let them hold the deposit? Is there some benefit reservation holders have any more now that ordering is opened up to everyone?

That is my main question Scott, not so much which is better (or even better value) TM3 or Volt or something else. Nothing more, nothing less. TM3 is an engineering marvel for sure. Whether they have production issues, did a bait and switch on the promise of a $35K model and all that other stuff doesn’t much interest me. Business is business and at the end of the day the market will decide Tesla’s fate or any other manufacturer. If customer satisfaction was any guide here, based on my talks with many Tesla owners, Tesla should do just fine.

Oh not sure if you considered inside size (front/backseat/storage/ceiling/etc). You make good points and glad you are coming from a standpoint of having talked with many Tesla owners.

If I were you it may depend on whether I 'needed' that $1000 and if I was satisfying all my other savings and life goals.

18 months is a very long time at this stage of the production. That is January 2020. Would you change your mind in 3 or 6 months depending on how more TM3s get into customers hands or if the infamous $35K model showed up at the end of the year. Would you buy in Dec when the $7500 tax credit is still around? Or half that for the next year?

 

[Kraven]

Thanks for the info Scott, good stuff. It's not even if I need that $1,000, it's why have a deposit on account as a reservation holder when non-reservation holders can get a car in the same (or in some cases less) time? It doesn't seem to provide any benefit whatsoever any more.

I'm a Tesla fan, I'm also a Volt fan. I like EVs and look forward to more models coming into the market. I may very well own a TM3 in the next few years if not in the near term. As for the credit expiring for Tesla and GM soon after, over the next few years battery and other manufacturing costs will bring prices down to at least help offset the loss of the credit, so that's not a big concern in my opinion. Yes, in the near term it does help...we'll see how buyers respond with demand and how manufacturers respond to any changes in demand with their pricing, etc.

 

[Ladogaboy]

I think the Volt and the Model 3 are comparable, and the Model 3 is on the short list of potential replacements for our Volt. That being said, for me (like you) it's not really a priority.

Are you willing to buy used? If so, I'd definitely wait. If not, the window might be closing on the deals that you are going to get. You might just want to get the LR Model 3 with Premium Upgrades before the end of the year. If you wait until after the year, and the credits are reduced, even the base, $36,000 Model 3 will have a final price that isn't much better.

 

[Mister Dave]

My family has 2 reservations for AWD M3- I am in for $3500, and my brother is in for only $2500.
Hopefully Tesla comes through...

At this point there's no definite reason to believe they won't come through. There doesn't seem to be any imminent danger of bankruptcy. I don't doubt much hay will be made of the earnings report due next month and we'll talk about it. Just harmless chatter as it relates to Tesla's bottom line really, especially on a GM-themed forum. Anyone who cares what we say here or thinks it matters is a fool.

I think for you the question isn't if, but when. I don't track what they make and deliver as well as Qinsp, so I couldn't say about your configuration other than to say that the more optioned it is the more likely it is you'll get it sooner. The only thing I see being a limiting factor is the drivetrain configuration - something about being able to get an RWD right away if it's in stock IIRC.

As far as production rates, that discussion is more about what was said would happen versus what actually happens. If they only make 250K/year there's no shame in that, other than it not being what Musk said would happen. I think at this point taking Musk seriously is only for die hard sycophants and we can hope that sort just shuts up eventually. Maybe if they limit their Twitter activity a lot of it will die down..... maybe.....

 

[samotlietuvis]

At this point there's no definite reason to believe they won't come through. There doesn't seem to be any imminent danger of bankruptcy. I don't doubt much hay will be made of the earnings report due next month and we'll talk about it. Just harmless chatter as it relates to Tesla's bottom line really, especially on a GM-themed forum. Anyone who cares what we say here or thinks it matters is a fool.

I think for you the question isn't if, but when. I don't track what they make and deliver as well as Qinsp, so I couldn't say about your configuration other than to say that the more optioned it is the more likely it is you'll get it sooner. The only thing I see being a limiting factor is the drivetrain configuration - something about being able to get an RWD right away if it's in stock IIRC.

As far as production rates, that discussion is more about what was said would happen versus what actually happens. If they only make 250K/year there's no shame in that, other than it not being what Musk said would happen. I think at this point taking Musk seriously is only for die hard sycophants and we can hope that sort just shuts up eventually. Maybe if they limit their Twitter activity a lot of it will die down..... maybe.....

Good points.
My brother is worried because he really needs the $7500. I want to get my $7500 rebate as well.
The reason I think my brother and I will get M3 before new year is because that Tesla cannot sell unlimited number $50k+ cars in USA. The entire midsize luxury sedan market sells 150k-200k cars per year in USA. Tesla already sold ~50k M3 and they will produce >100k additional M3s by the end of the year. That's 150k+ M3 sold at $50k each. I believe that's more M3's dumped in very short time than the public in USA is willing to buy.
Not bad news for Tesla. They got Canada, Europe, Asian markets to fill up, and by then the gasoline cost hopefully goes up to $5/gallon+ which will naturally increase demand for the car.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The Dreadnought concept is gone. It looks like there's a strong focus on cost savings and running on revenues rather than diluting equity further (which is not to say they won't further dilute their equity, but the focus looks to be different).

A lot of what's happened is related to the failure of the Alien Dreadnought.
They can't make money on the SR and it delayed volume production so much that AWD is beginning production. The LR/SR RWD priority window is closing.
If the new automated "tent" line works out (currently ramping using production of the P3D), they'll be able to duplicate it to the "manual" lines producing the LR, and that should bring down unit costs enough to make the SR, even if not at $35k exactly. Realistically, if the new line doesn't work out Tesla will die.

I have a reservation, and I could cancel, but that'd just add to the "Lots of cancellation! Demand is collapsing!" stuff, when in my case it just means that I'm not going to bring forward my purchase of a new car. There's no "affordable" BEV that really matters enough right now to dump a large chunk of money into it.

 

[srmarti]

Can you point to this source please?

Also you do realize that Tesla is one of the MOST shorted stocks don't you? Search: https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+most+shorted+stock

You need to be very careful what/where you read? Does that author have something to gain?

What is the article source? From another article as is common these days? From an 'insider' whispering?

I read both positive and negative articles with many grains of salt. If it does not come from an official source then I question it.

I don't recall. Something that popped up on my start page. I have no stake in Tesla so it doesn't matter so much personally. Just an observation that reservations are being cancelled. Don't have any way of verifying the rate, but cancellations seems plausible considering expectations vs. reality. Maybe the rate isn't accurate, but I'm guessing many might get tired of waiting for their $35K car and find something else.

As for credibility, I think even "official" sources seem like political or marketing releases. I'm not a investor, short seller, or reservation holder. No personal stake in the game.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't recall. Something that popped up on my start page. I have no stake in Tesla so it doesn't matter so much personally. Just an observation that reservations are being cancelled. Don't have any way of verifying the rate, but cancellations seems plausible considering expectations vs. reality. Maybe the rate isn't accurate, but I'm guessing many might get tired of waiting for their $35K car and find something else.

There have been reports that net orders fell, but really, the reported change isn't substantial enough to suggest a reduction in demand.

Given the production delays and where they stand with the US tax credit, there's been no reason for new US or even global reservations for quite some time, so we should expect an overall drop from attrition, if nothing else.

 

[JuneBug]

I found this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/21/new-demand-may-be-slipping-for-tesla-model-3-early-orders.html

Recently, Elon Musk lashed out at a new analysis claiming that nearly a quarter of the more than 400,000 advance reservations for Tesla's Model 3 battery-sedan have been canceled.

But a closer look at Musk's comment raises a different reason for concern: The prospect that new orders may not keep up with Tesla's long-awaited production ramp-up at it's suburban San Francisco assembly plant.

When it opened the order bank up ahead of the Model 3 production launch in July 2017, Tesla saw a rapid burst of reservations, complete with $1,000 deposits. But with many potential buyers still uncertain about when they might be able to actually take delivery, investment bank Needham & Company on Thursday issued a report claiming 24 percent of those reservations have been canceled – which echoed a June study by data site SecondMeasure, which estimated a 20 percent cancellation rate.

“Dunno where this bs is coming from,” Musk said in a Thursday night tweet. If anything, he boasted, the automaker had received 5,000 new orders for the Model 3 the week before, as well as 2,000 orders for the older Models S and X.