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What will replace gasoline trasportation in a decade?

  • Plug-in electric cars.

    Votes: 28 58.3%
  • Hydrogen cars

    Votes: 2 4.2%
  • Natural gas.

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • Bikes, subways and bullet trains.

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • The ICE car will be the way we get around for the rest of our lives.

    Votes: 4 8.3%
  • A little of all of the above, none pulling ahead of any other.

    Votes: 12 25.0%

  • Total voters
    48
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Discussion Starter #1
10 years from now I fully expect gasoline powered cars to be about as popular as cassette tapes are today. Well, maybe a LITTLE more popular than cassettes. The question is what will replace gasoline transportation.
 

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I think plug-ins will be gaining huge market share in 10 years but I think the majority transition will take around 20 years if everything goes well. And even then, I think the ICE will be around in some major ways for at least 30 more years.
 

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I don't believe that any of these options will replace gasoline in 10 years. I believe that notion is highly optimistic. I also don't believe that we'll be driving ICEs for the rest of our lives. In addition, you left out a real contender to gasoline, diesel and bio-diesel powered ICEs. I think your poll question should have read; Which of these technologies do you believe will become a major competitor to the gasoline ICE in the next ten years? With in that context, I chose the EV. Hydrogen maybe just becoming a serious option in ten years, but it will not be dominate. Natural gas is just too limited to become wide spread and dominate. Bikes and public transit won't be any more popular then than it is now.
 

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Plant derived fuels such as biodiesel would be the immediate front runner. Unknown to many Americans, massive upheaval has already happened behind the scenes, without the majority taking a hint. The MTBE has already been replaced with ethanol, thus, most of gasoline sold has little amount of ethanol already in the mix.

Plant based fuel could be biodiesel from various sources including algae, it could also be green gasoline, ethanol or butanol, or various blends and mixes. These are the fuel types that will tide us over as we ultimately transform into majority electric vehicles. Our existing machineries are huge investments that we need to run them some long time before they will be replaced and only plant based fuels can fill that gap while waiting for the electric infrastructure to reach massive proportion. It is not wise to suddenly throw these good working machineries into trash or recycle, it will consume more money and energy to suddenly replace them than simply waiting out the rest of their useful lives. While waiting it out, there is the plant based fuel to tide us over.

As for me, I will be waiting it out with my ICE. Until my ICE becomes too expensive to repair, then that is the time I switch to electric. But I believe the plant based fuels have already penetrated the market at least as an additive, and it will be a matter of time when various companies ramp up plant based fuel production. That way, it would allow us to reuse the ICE before EV reaches critical mass.
 

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You folks already know that I'm waiting to buy a Volt and I'm commited to electric transportation. With that said, I don't think that in 10 years it will have made a very big dent in the ICE transportation sector. Ten years is not much time. I think we'll see more Ethanol, Biodiesel, and natural gas, but none of those will totally replace petrolium in 10 years, but here will be much more choice than we have today. I still have hopes that hydrogen will be the fuel of the future, and it holds a lot of promise if only ventur capitol can get on board the supply side to convert water to hydrogen using solar, wind, and wave generated electricity. As for bikes and busses... Well, maybe we'll see more of them in Portland Oregon and San Franscisco, but not that much more in the rest of the country. Busses just don't meet the needs of the individual. Bikes are great for kids and exercise fanatics, but not for the general population, and not in bad weather.

Well, thats my 2-cents worth.
 

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In ten years oil will have peaked and smart countries will be hard at work transitioning to BEVs and plug-ins hybrids (to use alternative range extenders).

For trucks I have no idea how far along the US will be in the transition. Trucks require so much energy and if a great EEscam-like electrical storage device does not emerge it will be old diesel, biodiesel, NG, plug-in hybrid, and possibly hydrogen. Roll of the dice. It do expect that there will be some plug-in capability so the trucks do not have to idle when at rest stops. I also expect most taxis to have this ability. I just hate to see trucks and taxis idling away just to run the AC for the driver. So wasteful and polluting.
 

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I think plug-ins will be gaining huge market share in 10 years but I think the majority transition will take around 20 years if everything goes well. And even then, I think the ICE will be around in some major ways for at least 30 more years.
The Saudis aren't talking about how large their reserve is and I don't see the rest of the planet doing anything but continue to produce.
With larger numbers, the "plug-in" will reduce the market demand, and potentially extend the oil reserves beyond our best expectations. If the development of ethanol continues to expand, ICE could be with us for quite a while.
 

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I believe that if industry keeps racing towards plug-in, it's just a matter of time before a break through in battery tech comes. Though I believe the ice is here to stay in some form or another.
 

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Biofuels from many different sources will reduce our dependence on petroleum products. Truckers will probably drive some kind of hybrid system with a liquid fuel (a large part biofuel) as the main energy carrier. I really don't see hydrogen being useful at all for transportation purposes, even looking a few decades ahead. Popular science, the car giants, and the government have all bought into the hydrogen pipe dream cause shucks, the only emission is water. But when you look at what it takes to produce, transport and store hydrogen, the dream quickly dies. What's much more likely is that we'll start turning our garbage into liquid fuel used to run highly efficient ICEs.

But really, there's more that has to change than just our transportation technology. Is it really economical to be using the third world as our manufacturing plant and then shipping the cheap consumer crap back here? As of right now, yes it is, and a select few people are making a killing! But it can't go on, not with rising oil prices. A lot of change is coming in the next couple decades. It's gonna get crazy.
 

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It's the battery, stupid.

If batteries get cheaper PEVs begin growing in popularity, with PHEV leading the way. But, short of a really/miraculous drop to insanely low prices ICEVs will/still be popular because of their low price and because many people don't drive enough to justify the higher cost of electric vehicles.

Once PEVs become mainstream you'll then begin to see the barriers to home charging gradually being removed as new builds include it and other locations begin retrofitting.

By then, I hope, the growing popularity of car sharing schemes and the increased desire of the public to drive electric will mean some company will fill the void and offer an effective, efficieint, more seamless rental system that enables more people to own a BEV.
 

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You resurrect a 4yr old thread to call the OP stupid??? Um okay...
Hah! I voted in the poll, and then saw the date of the comments. I actually think it's an interesting question, though the poll could have been better constructed. If only we waited 8 more years to resurrect the poll, we would have something to talk about!
 

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I think the Extended Range Vehicle like the Volt Engine concept will dominate simply for fuel efficiency. A few thing needs to happen before pure ev can dominate completely: cheap battery, small and longer bat range miles. The other would be put charging station on every street corner and or workplace then we don't care anymore how small your battery range is.
 

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Assuming the likely scenario of ever increasing cost of petroleum, in 10 years PEVs, EREVs, and Hybrids will be everywhere! I hope the transition to green energy becomes a reality a lot sooner, so OPEC and even all the AMERICAN owned oil companies can go take a flying leap!!!
 

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We will never reduce our dependence on petroleum products which covers a whole lot more than fossil fuels. Bio-fuels are a bad idea, especially widely subsidized corn ethanol. Refinement costs more energy than it produces, and the subsidies adversely affect food prices, which should be obvious already. As for the next 10 years, I'm hoping a few psychopaths don't manage to start WW3 by then.
 
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