[Upper5Percent]

Elon Musk: Fully autonomous Tesla will drive across the country by the end of 2017 (Oct. 19, 2016)
http://www.businessinsider.com/elon...a-drive-across-country-by-end-of-2017-2016-10

ELON MUSK SAYS EVERY NEW TESLA CAN DRIVE ITSELF (10.19.16)
https://www.wired.com/2016/10/elon-musk-says-every-new-tesla-can-drive/

Tesla, Inc. Is Still Planning to Demonstrate a Cross-Country Autonomous Vehicle This Year (May 12, 2017)
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/12/tesla-inc-is-still-planning-to-demonstrate-a-cross.aspx

Elon Musk said Tesla may delay its cross-country road trip in a self-driving car (August 2, 2017)
http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-may-delay-la-ny-self-driving-demo-2017-8

Only 2 days left to perform this exercise...

 

[Loboc]

Well yeah if Elon’s line-in-the-sand goals are characterized as a promise.

It’s pretty much impossible to achieve full autonomy without AI. Tesla currently has custom nVidia boards without AI enabled. Now they are talking fully custom chip set. A brainless car can’t drive.

 

[viking79]

Depends on what you mean by AI. You dont need free thinking/reasoning to drive, following a set of rules with some general collision avoidance is probably enough to be better than humans at avoiding collisions. Humans tend to cause collisions because they ignore the rules or get distracted, things that current AI wouldn't do. Even Musk says FSD is a couple years out, there are a lot of corner cases to consider and developing those what if scenarios.

Elon definetly underestimated the effort to shift from Mobileye, he says in the last link that he might have an egg in his face over promising a demo this year. In November investor call he said they did have some breakthroughs in their neural net, so expect features more rapidly than over the previous year.

I guess wait and see at this point, timing it with mass production of Model 3 starting now couldn't hurt.

 

[BAZINGA]

Even if technically possible, will federal, state and local governments allow this. That's a lot of jurisdiction's a vehicle will cross.

 

[Loboc]

Depends on what you mean by AI. You dont need free thinking/reasoning to drive, following a set of rules with some general collision avoidance is probably enough to be better than humans at avoiding collisions.

Collision avoidance requires decisions. Driver assist can’t do that. By AI I mean a deep learning neural net that can accept random input and take an appropriate action autonomously. Anything with human controls is not autonomy.

 

[trm2]

A brainless car can’t drive.

Why not, I see plenty of brainless people drive every day.

 

[Bill Step]

Why not, I see plenty of brainless people drive every day.

I'll second and third that.
They need to turn all these phones off to the most basic function,,like talking on the phone and maybe gps guidence,but thats it.

 

[bro1999]

Why not, I see plenty of brainless people drive every day.

Brainless CARS can't drive. Brainless PEOPLE still can.

Back to OP's post, broken promise #82 for Elon. If he were graded by the ratio of promises he kept, he'd have been out of the CEO job a long time ago. But he's got that reality distortion field machine going....right next to the cash incineration machine. Quite a 1-2 punch.

 

[viking79]

You can focus on broken promises (slipped release dates), but what have his companies done? Regularly land and reuse heavy rocket boosters, launches more heavy rockets than any nation, more than Russia or US, shown that you can make a viable electric only car totally turning the global automarket in a new direction, just to name a few things he has accomplished.

Other manufacturers toyed with many of these, but never really did anything. Elon is forcing action from these companies. True, his FSD car might not be a reality yet, but it will be quickly, and if not his someone elses because he is forcing action. Competition, it's good.

 

[Mister Dave]

You can focus on broken promises (slipped release dates), but what have his companies done? Regularly land and reuse heavy rocket boosters, launches more heavy rockets than any nation, more than Russia or US, shown that you can make a viable electric only car totally turning the global automarket in a new direction, just to name a few things he has accomplished.

Other manufacturers toyed with many of these, but never really did anything. Elon is forcing action from these companies. True, his FSD car might not be a reality yet, but it will be quickly, and if not his someone elses because he is forcing action. Competition, it's good.

Curious how the focus shifts from the topic like this so often. I mean, inflated perceptions aside, are we supposed to overlook dubious claims because this guy made them?

Tesla has no autonomous vehicle program.

 

[Qinsp]

I have come to understand a fundamental business principle about Tesla Motors:

They spend a lot of effort keeping their name in the mainstream press, not just the EV sites.
In particular they focus on financial information sites.

It unusual for a week to go by without Tesla in the media announcing something impressive.
Lately, they have been spamming the media every time a company places a future order for the class 8 truck.
This follows the Model Y, the Tesla Pickup, Powerwalls, industrial sized grid batteries, roof PV tiles, full autonomy announcements, gigafactory improvements, easter eggs, performance numbers, etc, etc.

It is really best to take it all with a grain of salt. They aren't talking to buyers, they are talking to bankers. Through these techniques they keep the stock price up.

The Tesla class 8 orders are a small fraction of class 8 orders and typically by companies with over 1,000 trucks running daily buying what amounts to a handful.

Nothing is actually occuring with the Model Y or the Tesla Pickup.
Powerwalls are not being produced in mass.
Grid batteries are not doing that much. The 'hot' news lately was the automatic transfer system works.
Roof tiles are taking deposits.
Full Autonomy is talk about an improved 2.5 hardware suite and a 1 day test video and talk of trip across the US. Soon.
The gigafactory is going to be the world's largest source of lithium batteries. Soon.
Easter eggs are cheap, simple, and a staple of getting press for your software sales. However Tesla doesn't sell software. But it works great on folk who aren't familiar with the nuts and bolts of software development, such as investors.
They reduced the Torque Mgmt programming in the Model S/X so the Model 3 specs won't do as much damage to S/X sales. Granted, few Model 3s are actually available, but the early announcement of it's specs is harmful.

And then the Model 3 is still in the news every week, even though it remains unchanged since July. You can't drive one, you can't buy one, but keeping it in the news is good for investors.

That being said, I believe in Tesla Motors, and I want it to thrive. I still anxiously await my Model 3. We chose a Cadillac CT6 over a Tesla Model S mostly because my wife likes the luxury features such as heated massage and night vision which are far and away superior to what Tesla offers, plus she doesn't like the idea of remote charging at night when she's alone. The Caddy has plenty of fuel left at 400 miles at high speeds in all terrain.

 

[jbakerjonathan]

<snip>, plus she doesn't like the idea of remote charging at night when she's alone. The Caddy has plenty of fuel left at 400 miles at high speeds in all terrain.

With the gathering of family this holiday season, discussion on #MeToo and similar topics arose. I have 28, 32 and 57 year old daughters. Each one expressed an apprehension to walking on public streets among men. What a sad, and worrisome, commentary on the trust some women have regarding men. It doesn't matter that 99% of the men behave themselves (control themselves). That 1% spoils the barrel.