[Bluesideup]

Getting closer to the release of the model 3 to non Tesla or space X employees.

https://insideevs.com/hundreds-of-tesla-model-3-cars-at-fremont-delivery-center-videos/

 

[Shivetya]

stockpiling is signs of a poor distribution model considering the few numbers coming off the line. So is this the lot for deliveries or post manufacturing fix ups?

 

[BAZINGA]

Looks like what GM does with the Corvette. They usually let cars sit for a week or two before shipping IOT catch any issues before they are shipped. My 2014 Stingray sat for two weeks along with HUNDREDS of other's before shipping. It's common.

 

[Qinsp]

All mfrs have a holding queue if they have train delivery. Train delivery is not Fed Ex. It's cheap, slow, and large volume.

 

[Steverino]

6 months and they have managed to produce ...hundreds.

Pretty sad when they said they would be producing 5,000 per week by now.

 

[Mister Dave]

All mfrs have a holding queue if they have train delivery. Train delivery is not Fed Ex. It's cheap, slow, and large volume.

What real production looks like.

 

[AZ EV Driver]

Sometimes what is happening is vehicles are waiting for production to produce enough vehicles to fill a rail car destined for a particular location. When they have enough vehicles to fill a rail car they get loaded and off they go. Same would be true for loading over the road car haulers.

VIN # B0985

 

[Qinsp]

My reservation was originally Nov-Jan? Now Feb-Apr.
I'm going to make a prediction that I will not receive a Model 3LR (orig) until Fall 2018 at best.
This is based on Tesla Motors history with delivery statements. About a 1 year after initial press release date.

 

[sosmerc]

I think Tesla will do better than expected once they get the "bottlenecks" worked out. Maybe some of these cars sitting on the lot are waiting for batteries?

 

[Steverino]

I think Tesla will do better than expected once they get the "bottlenecks" worked out. Maybe some of these cars sitting on the lot are waiting for batteries?

Sure, me too. Getting rid of production roadblocks will increase production. Kind of goes without saying whether the roadblocks are training, equipment, design, raw material or component delivery or all the above. "Eventually" is the key here. When will that roadblock clearing occur? Hard to take anything Tesla says seriously based on past and present track record. 5,000 cars per week vs. 20 or so is a huge hole in their credibility in my mind.

 

[sosmerc]

And what do you think the impact will be with all of these new Semi orders? Can Tesla really scale up to meet all of this potential demand? I hope they are not getting ahead of themselves.

 

[timoshev]

If all you Tesla wannabe's get outstanding cars you will quickly forget the wait. Back in '15, my lease expiration forced me to order my Gen 2. The delivery timing was perfect, but right before the big day my sales guy informed me that my shipping date was delayed indefinitely and the assigned serial numbers has been expunged. Uh, oh. My first experience at buying an early production car. But, a happy ending ensued. The car arrived a week or two later and with the help of a few service bulletins has been perfect thru 34K mi. I quickly forgot the wait. Hopefully, you Tesla folks will, too, when your cars deliver.

 

[sosmerc]

If all you Tesla wannabe's get outstanding cars you will quickly forget the wait. Back in '15, my lease expiration forced me to order my Gen 2. The delivery timing was perfect, but right before the big day my sales guy informed me that my shipping date was delayed indefinitely and the assigned serial numbers has been expunged. Uh, oh. My first experience at buying an early production car. But, a happy ending ensued. The car arrived a week or two later and with the help of a few service bulletins has been perfect thru 34K mi. I quickly forgot the wait. Hopefully, you Tesla folks will, too, when your cars deliver.

No real hurry or worry here as I am enjoying my Volt while I wait. Actually, I am most excited about the fact that Chevy may be stepping up their BEV development and we may see some pretty cool options sooner than later. But I want everyone to succeed, especially Tesla since they really got the ball rolling.

 

[SanCarlosJeff]

Getting closer to the release of the model 3 to non Tesla or space X employees.

https://insideevs.com/hundreds-of-tesla-model-3-cars-at-fremont-delivery-center-videos/

I've seen a handful of 3's over the last two months. They all had plates so I assume were employee owned vehicles.

Last Friday I saw a red one going south on 101 and yesterday a black one going north. Both of these had the paper "zero emissions" plates that Tesla puts on their new cars. I'm thinking these were non-employee owned vehicles that are starting to trickle out.

 

[Steverino]

If all you Tesla wannabe's get outstanding cars you will quickly forget the wait.

There is the next hurdle, quality control. Will Tesla deliver mostly defect-free cars? Or will they have trim alignment, fit and finish, and other issues?

High volume production and quality sometimes compete with each other. That some of the initial low volume Model 3 cars have had quality issues is the worst of both worlds. You'd expect the initial trickle of cars to be defect free, but they weren't. Cranking the line to Plaid speed may simply make that worse. Hard to know at this point.

If there are issues, will Tesla service be able to keep up? Will the service centers treat Model 3 owners like they do Model S an X? We shall see. On the other hand, Tesla buyers seem a very forgiving group, so even if there are quality and service issues on top the delays, it may not make any difference.

 

[Mister Dave]

And what do you think the impact will be with all of these new Semi orders? Can Tesla really scale up to meet all of this potential demand? I hope they are not getting ahead of themselves.

Quoted in mixed context:

-Although Musk said the truck’s cost per mile of $1.26 versus $1.51 for a diesel-powered truck would make it more affordable to operate, he didn’t announce its base price.
-Additionally, he didn’t detail how large the battery packs would be to deliver the promised 500 miles of range.
-Musk didn’t say where the truck would be built or set a potential volume goal.
-If all goes to plan, production and sales begin in 2019, [Musk] told an audience of more than a 1,000 packed into an airport hangar next door to SpaceX’s suburban Los Angeles headquarters and Tesla’s design studio.

Elon Musk's 10-Ton Challenge: Turning Tesla Into A Semi Truck Powerhouse

There is no firm production plan. There is no production facility. There's no room in Fremont for this. There's no money at this time available for the capex needed. It's up to you to connect the dots.

Throw in the track record of dubious claims already made if you like.

High volume production and quality sometimes compete with each other. That some of the initial low volume Model 3 cars have had quality issues is the worst of both worlds. You'd expect the initial trickle of cars to be defect free, but they weren't. Cranking the line to Plaid speed may simply make that worse. Hard to know at this point.

Line production should (not will) make whatever quality level they have achieved repeatable. This is not something you should expect from hand-built cars in this price range. I used to build limos in a previous life and can attest to this. Bentley and Rolls Royce hire and train only the finest craftsmen/women. That's not the case at a stretch limo shop, or in Fremont. The pay scale doesn't support it.

Getting consistent quality out of off-the-street hires is a very frustrating job - I would know. Just getting them to take their job seriously is a struggle. I wouldn't give you a plug nickel for any of the cars in this video.

 

[viking79]

I wrote a blog post to help put Tesla's position in perspective.
https://carswithplugs.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/2017-li-ion-ev-fleet-capacity-usa/

Tesla is always getting ahead of themselves. If you don't try and fail you are probably not doing anything. They have done fairly well considering.

People really need to stop underestimating Tesla. The market and perception of buyers is shifting to BEV, and Tesla accommodates that with superchargers and long ranges. My personal thought is the batteries would be better suited to PHEVs initially, as you can make 5 to 10x for a single Tesla battery and likely offset more gas miles, but I know this won't be popular opinion. I think anything tied to carbon emissions directly (not indirectly like EVs) will fail even if emissions savings are similar, like Mazda's new Skyactiv-X engine and all PHEVs (eventually).

I think Tesla's semi will be able to show real cost savings for truck fleet owners, and emissions offsets will be massive in city stop-go-idle applications. I am also confident Tesla has the potential to be the largest car company in maybe 10 to 20 years. Clearly, things will shift as other companies react more (they already are), and depending how much Tesla stumbles

 

[srmarti]

So what are they waiting for? Is there a problem with them? In theory they're already sold as there are thousands of reservations waiting. Why would Tesla sit on hundreds of completed cars? Don't They need the revenue?

 

[Qinsp]

The longer Tesla can wait for Model 3 deliveries, the better it is for their bottom line. Until they start to mass produce the cars, each car cost more to produce. Selling cars at a loss is not what Tesla needs right now.

 

[Slotracer577]

I wrote a blog post to help put Tesla's position in perspective.
https://carswithplugs.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/2017-li-ion-ev-fleet-capacity-usa/

Tesla is always getting ahead of themselves. If you don't try and fail you are probably not doing anything. They have done fairly well considering.

People really need to stop underestimating Tesla. The market and perception of buyers is shifting to BEV, and Tesla accommodates that with superchargers and long ranges. My personal thought is the batteries would be better suited to PHEVs initially, as you can make 5 to 10x for a single Tesla battery and likely offset more gas miles, but I know this won't be popular opinion.

I think Tesla's semi will be able to show real cost savings for truck fleet owners, and emissions offsets will be massive in city stop-go-idle applications. I am also confident Tesla has the potential to be the largest car company in maybe 10 to 20 years. Clearly, things will shift as other companies react more (they already are), and depending how much Tesla stumbles

The phev has the potential to easily do more electric miles than the small battery pev's. Just look at the volt vs the leaf. People drive further on battery if they have no worry of getting stuck.
Interesting thing on semi emissions, my uncle is on CARB and we were discussing the Central Valley smog. It turns out that most of the pollution is from old vehicles with no emission controls. The problem is they are either cheap or already paid for, so the farmers don't want to move to new vehicles. Just retiring the old vehicles would do far more to improve air quality than incremental improvements of new vehicles. But we can't let science get in the way of facts. Just like my Bolt is barely cleaner than the car it replaced due to the milage I used to get 43-48mpg and the high % of coal fired electricity that I use. But then I didn't buy the Bolt because it was clean. I bout it because it works for how I use it and is more fun to drive than a small compact like a fit.