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Quotes from https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-rebirth-of-american-sedan/

In March 2016 Elon Musk stunned the industry with the unveiling of an all-electric car with an available range of more than 300 miles, fast acceleration, and a stunningly simple yet functional interior.

Making up more than half the US EV market in July and August, and actually surpassing every luxury make in the US for sedan sales with an estimated sales of 17,800 cars. It landed the number 5 on the list of best-selling cars in America for August 2018, and this was for a car averaging approximately $60,000 US, more than twice any other car on the list and better than almost any SUV.

The American sedan was reborn.


The claims of Ford and Chevy that the sedan is dead should be phrased differently. The sedan is not dead. It's just that Ford and Chevy can't figure how to make a sufficient return on investment for their investors by making and selling sedans.
 

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To be fair, how much money is Tesla making on sedans? The point is that Ford and Chevy are going for the low-hanging fruit, trucks/SUVs/CUVs.
Quotes from https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-rebirth-of-american-sedan/

In March 2016 Elon Musk stunned the industry with the unveiling of an all-electric car with an available range of more than 300 miles, fast acceleration, and a stunningly simple yet functional interior.

Making up more than half the US EV market in July and August, and actually surpassing every luxury make in the US for sedan sales with an estimated sales of 17,800 cars. It landed the number 5 on the list of best-selling cars in America for August 2018, and this was for a car averaging approximately $60,000 US, more than twice any other car on the list and better than almost any SUV.

The American sedan was reborn.


The claims of Ford and Chevy that the sedan is dead should be phrased differently. The sedan is not dead. It's just that Ford and Chevy can't figure how to make a sufficient return on investment for their investors by making and selling sedans.
 

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It's just that Ford and Chevy can't figure how to make a sufficient return on investment for their investors by making and selling sedans.
Net Income Applicable to Common Shareholders - Tesla

2017 -$1,961,400,000
2016 -$674,914,000
2015 -$888,66,000
2014 -$294,040,000

https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/financials

Maybe you'd like to reconsider the question. ^ NOT thriving.

Video: Elon Musk Admits Tesla Almost Died Over the Summer



"Bankwupt" very nearly came true. It still can.
 

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Because Teslas are technologically advanced, powerful, very sexy, and fun to drive. Most American sedans are not.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Net Income Applicable to Common Shareholders - Tesla

2017 -$1,961,400,000
2016 -$674,914,000
2015 -$888,66,000
2014 -$294,040,000

https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/financials

Maybe you'd like to reconsider the question. ^ NOT thriving.

Video: Elon Musk Admits Tesla Almost Died Over the Summer



"Bankwupt" very nearly came true. It still can.
Your point is well taken but Teslas would not sell if people disliked sedans. And investors would not give Elon their money if they thought people would not buy sedans (what Tesla mostly sells). A lot of people think that Tesla can sell cars profitably in the near future or they would have been bankrupt long ago.

With all the advantages of the big two car companies and their failures to stop the erosion of their market share in the last 30 years, I would hope their plan was more clever and realistic than to deny the desirability of sedans and hope to survive on SUV and truck "low hanging fruit" alone.
 

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Your point is well taken but Teslas would not sell if people disliked sedans. And investors would not give Elon their money if they thought people would not buy sedans (what Tesla mostly sells). A lot of people think that Tesla can sell cars profitably in the near future or they would have been bankrupt long ago.

With all the advantages of the big two car companies and their failures to stop the erosion of their market share in the last 30 years, I would hope their plan was more clever and realistic than to deny the desirability of sedans and hope to survive on SUV and truck "low hanging fruit" alone.
First, you posted and quoted a fluff piece from a site with a clear bias.

Second, what people think and why they invest in this or that company has little to do with the actual markets they're in. Tesla is not considered to be an auto manufacturer by many investors. It's routinely referred to as a tech company, which is only partially true.

As for the actual car market, here's your trend:



I have an opinion about this, and it's that Tesla made a big mistake in making sedans. They need to move away from that. Once VW and a couple of others get their act together, they'll bury Tesla. Jaguar already has a Tesla killer shipping to customers, albeit a slightly rocky rollout (software issues).

Tesla has teased a semi concept that'll ruin them. On the other hand, they don't have any production facility for it either, so maybe they can stop talking about it (I haven't heard boo) and people will forget.

There's some serious capex needed for any model Y or pickup truck (also being teased). I don't know where they'll get it. They're in debt up to their eyeballs and those debts are coming due.

The one thing they should do, and have been successful at is making high-end roadsters/sporty cars. That they can do in limited numbers and rake in profit. Otherwise, Tesla's future is very not clear. The model 3 is not an everyman car.

If you want to paste GM and Ford for playing it safe and chasing profits while eroding their own abilities, you definitely have a case but it doesn't stand in juxtaposition to Tesla by any stretch of the imagination.
 

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Discussion Starter #7
Being a fluff piece doesn't make it false. The article's stats are probably correct and impressive even if they are meant to put the best face on Tesla.

Sedans may be a bad choice for Tesla in the long run but so far at least, they seem to be selling well and future demand is very high.

The early adopters have voted and so far they have elected Teslas and not Volts and Bolts (and it seem to have little to do with these vehicles mostly being sedans).
 

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Being a fluff piece doesn't make it false..
It makes it opinion. Much of the rest of you post is opinion too.

Demand is high? Hardly, in comparison with what Ford and GM sell. Tesla claimed four or five hundred thousand deposits, to which they still have a ways to go in delivering. Ford and GM each produce and sell pickups well more than that number every year. Demand is high for pickup trucks. Tesla should have skipped the 3 and made that instead if it wanted high demand.

The early adopters have voted and so far they have elected Teslas and not Volts and Bolts (and it seem to have little to do with these vehicles mostly being sedans).
You're comparing vehicles with a ~3% overall market share. A who's the king of the ant hill sort of thing. Sorry, but it's true.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
It makes it opinion. Much of the rest of you post is opinion too.

Demand is high? Hardly, in comparison with what Ford and GM sell. Tesla claimed four or five hundred thousand deposits, to which they still have a ways to go in delivering. Ford and GM each produce and sell pickups well more than that number every year. Demand is high for pickup trucks. Tesla should have skipped the 3 and made that instead if it wanted high demand.



You're comparing vehicles with a ~3% overall market share. A who's the king of the ant hill sort of thing. Sorry, but it's true.
True - 3% is paltry but it represents a trend that has caught people's imagination. Look at the trend lines and the history of adoption of new technologies. Allot of people don't want last decades or even last year's technology. New and exciting will often prevail. It will be quite a ride in the automotive industry, these next 5 years.

But ditching sedans is a kind of surrender- we have seen this movie before. GM and Ford could not make money on small cars. Then the small (import) car companies who sold lots of small cars started making bigger cars and the rest is history. GM's ~50% market share went into free fall.

Flip phones and Kodak film were selling well until they quickly declined and eventually almost disappeared. The stock market seems to be betting on the future and that paltry 3% is creating quite a buzz.
 

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The 2008 recession and the resulting GM bankruptcy was pretty much blamed on GM being over invested in gas guzzling SUV and Pick-ups that were just sitting on the dealer's lots. The resulting U.S. government loans (bail-out) to save GM was predicated on a leaner and greener car company of which the Chevy Volt was a considered a key vehicle to move into the future with. Better fuel economy and an electrified future were what was promised at that time. Gas was around $4.00 to $4.50 a gallon at the time.

Fast forward to 2018 gas is relatively inexpensive and consumers are buying SUVs and Pickups much to the delight of GM as the vehicles have a higher mark-up and substantial prophet margin. One can argue if an interest in SUVs and Pickups is due to GM and Ford marketing vs. actual consumer demand for the larger vehicles. I assume it's the former as all of GM and Fords marketing might is towards the very vehicles that provide both with the highest prophet margins.

Tesla mission is to make futuristic green EVs which is what GM kind of eluded to back during their reorganization after bankruptcy. With the Tesla Model 3, they are able to offer a EV that competes with the Chevy Bolt and to a lesser extent the Chevy Volt. With the excitement of Tesla being a futuristic Apple like company for EV auto design and driverless car design, Tesla's over-all stock price has exceeded that of GM and Ford due to what's expected of them moving forward into the future. Over-all EV sales as a whole are still only 3% of the over-all consumer vehicle market with Tesla having close to half of that 3% market to themselves.

Tesla's issues moving forward are promised production levels, profitability and improving quality control in order to be a successful company. GM has indicated that they still intend on producing EVs and introducing boy 20 new models by 2025. Time will tell if they really intend on doing this or if it's lip service as far as a GM EV future is concerned.

I think we are all disappointed that GM killed off the Volt without any indication of a replacement moving forward. That the most discouraging aspect of GM's current move into a defined SUV and Pickup Truck Future. Kind of a lack of commitment to what was promised for a new lean and greener GM from ten years ago.
 

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The stock market seems to be betting on the future and that paltry 3% is creating quite a buzz.
The media works on clicks. Blue chip stocks are boring (but I own them anyway - cha-ching!!).

Besides that, look at where you get your 'buzz' from. Do you think Inside EVs has mainstream traffic?

Every tweet Musk made seemingly used to get news. Lately he most often makes news by calling people pedos, or breaking SEC rules. Would that qualify as 'buzz'?

Mind you, I don't care what Musk does - it's his life and his business.

If you want to move something forward in a meaningful way the first thing you have to do is stop blowing smoke up people's arses. Articles like this don't get the job done. People eventually figure out that you're shoveling hyperbole, and then you've done more than fail, you've turned them against you.

EVs aren't saving the planet. They're pretty cool though if the car maker didn't dork the styling. They're a lot of fun to drive. That's why I own the one that's currently refueling in my garage.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
Thank heavens we have people like you to tell us how to "move things forward in a meaningful way" and "how to get the job done".

Here is another "fluff article" that paraphrases a WSJ article. It the WSJ mainstream enough for you?
 

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Thank heavens we have people like you to tell us how to "move things forward in a meaningful way" and "how to get the job done".
And there it is, the ad hominem. Okay then, this would be fair - you may recall when I said this in response to your pickup truck/SUV 2 cent rant:

Oh sorry, was that your 2 cents I ran over with my 4X4? I've had it 11 years and have yet to click off 12K miles. I don't have to run to Menard's on a bicycle to rent it either. It's in my garage right now. Sometimes I even haul things in it.

You may not be aware that many GM-Volt members own pickup trucks. Some of them have them as daily drivers while their spouse drives the Volt. Others need them for work.

Surely you know that when I'm not driving my Volt I'm out looking for EVs to run off the road. I have to live up to the stereotypes slapped on me for owning a pickup you know. I don't want to disappoint any vehicle bigots.
Pickup trucks are evil. They're out to get you when you're driving your EV. They're gas hogs.

You just blew away a bunch of GM-Volt members with that rant on pickup trucks you did.

If you want to believe you're saving the planet (or whatever) with your EV, that's you. That's how you want to see yourself. Don't be surprised when you learn how few people care about how you want to view yourself, or listen to your rants about trucks. You just lost their interest.

Try something else. Maybe something that other people who don't subscribe to your view of yourself can connect with.

Cars are fun. Try it. Or not........

I'll be out on the road in my pickup truck looking for you so I can run you off the road. ;)
 

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Electric Cars For Headlines, Trucky Cars For Profits

Crossovers for profit: electric vehicles for clickbait

Despite the soaring popularity of crossovers, the PR value of this glittering motherlode of profit dims in comparison with that of the tiny electric vehicle niche.

Not to be misunderstood, we think electrics are great: the technology is fascinating, their off-the-line acceleration is exhilarating and, clearly, they are the next big thing. One day. But first, there are the harsh realities of 260 million gasoline/diesel powered vehicles already on U.S. highways and a 100-year supply of fossil fuels to be factored into the mix.

magnifying-glass-dudeIn truth, the ability of EVs to grab headlines is more a testament to auto-makers’ compliance with government mandates than to market forces. Although 2016 was a record year for battery-only electric vehicles (BEVs), just 86,000 were sold. With Tesla taking 55% and second place Nisan Leaf at 16%, that left 29% for ten other models to fight over. Slim pickings, but enough to win e-cred from regulators.

Purists may cringe, but in addition to true BEVs, 73,000 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) were also sold under the electric car banner in 2016 (data: Inside EVs). These vehicles qualify for EV tax subsidies, but only achieve an anemic battery driving range of around 20 cautious miles before good ol’ gasoline comes to the rescue.

ev-sales_2011-2016-by-stateBetween 2011 and 2016 Americans bought a grand total of 503,000 BEVs and PHEVs, about half (49%) in California where state regs are especially draconian enlightened and thought-leading professionals – you know who you are – relish the cachet of adding an EV to their personal portfolios (sales data: EV Volumes).

Realpolitik bottom line: crossovers for profit, electric vehicles for clickbait.
 

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Pickup trucks are evil. They're out to get you when you're driving your EV. They're gas hogs.
You just blew away a bunch of GM-Volt members with that rant on pickup trucks you did.
I own Trucks and did not take offense. Try not to take it so personally.

And for those on the pro EV side of the discussion about trucks, try to remember that a truck is a chassis, not a drive train. I would love to own a truck that was an EV. From all we are hearing thus far, it seems like GM wants to be late to the truck game.
 

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I own Trucks and did not take offense. Try not to take it so personally.
I don't take offense. That doesn't mean I will sit by silently as some others have.

I'm on a truck forum too. Would you believe that there isn't a single anti-EV post made there? On this forum people invent imaginary enemies. They do well to be more aware of their foolishness.
 

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Tesla is structurally profitable since Q3 2018($312M profit). It will make over $700M in Q4 2018. Maybe a lot more.

Gross margins on Tesla Model S sedans are over 25%.

Gross margins on Tesla Model 3 sedans are over 20% and climbing.

Tesla is building a new factory in China and looking to add factories in Europe and the US.

GM sold its European business and now is niche player there selling a few Cadillacs,Camaros, and Corvettes. Tesla outsells GM over 60 to 1 in Europe.

GM recently announced it is closing five factories in North America. Tesla has been growing sales over 50% YoY for several years.

Last year 100k units this year over 250k units. Next year over 400k units.

2018 Revenue over $20B 2019 Revenue over $32B.

GM 2017 Revenue $145B.

Current Market Cap GM $47B Tesla $59B.

Tesla is no longer a mouse.

Tesla Model Y compact Crossover SUV coming in 2020 and Tesla pickup coming after Silverado and F Series in 2021.
 

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And there it is, the ad hominem. Okay then, this would be fair - you may recall when I said this in response to your pickup truck/SUV 2 cent rant:



Pickup trucks are evil. They're out to get you when you're driving your EV. They're gas hogs.

You just blew away a bunch of GM-Volt members with that rant on pickup trucks you did.

If you want to believe you're saving the planet (or whatever) with your EV, that's you. That's how you want to see yourself. Don't be surprised when you learn how few people care about how you want to view yourself, or listen to your rants about trucks. You just lost their interest.

Try something else. Maybe something that other people who don't subscribe to your view of yourself can connect with.

Cars are fun. Try it. Or not........

I'll be out on the road in my pickup truck looking for you so I can run you off the road. ;)
I used to drive an 80 series Land Cruiser with a plate steel winch bumper. It was an impressive vehicle designed for third world countries with locking front, rear and center differentials. It was literally a tank on wheels and got an impressive 10 mpg, and I drove it back when gas was $4 a gallon. I drove it for almost 100K miles and estimated that I spent between $30K and $40K on gas over the 7 years of ownership. I loved running Prius's and Honda CRV's off the road. I had quite the attitude when I drove it and the feeling of being invincible. I found myself in a constant state of rage. I sold it when it had over 200K miles and was 17 years old. It was starting to leak oil and coolant and was simply too expensive to keep as a daily driver. Since then I have driven much more sensible vehicles and I find myself a much happier person. I no longer have that constant sense of rage and feeling superior to everyone else on the road. Now that I own a Volt, I am on the receiving end and simply smile when someone in a Jeep cuts me off. I like the quietness of the Volt and find it to be very comfortable and simply enjoy the drive. I find myself to be a much happier person when driving.

LChood2.jpg
 

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Because Teslas are technologically advanced, powerful, very sexy, and fun to drive. Most American sedans are not.
Agree. But if Tesla makes a profit in Q4 2018, I have to think it's only because they took deposits from so many people and they haven't yet had to actually pay for building many of those cars. I understand being in the red all this time since they are also building infrastructure to make their cars go. But it may be time to find a way to turn that red to black: been too long.

Mike
 

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.... Tesla claimed four or five hundred thousand deposits, to which they still have a ways to go in delivering. ....
And I suspect the vast majority of those reservation holders are wanting the Fabled "$35k Tesla Model 3".

That was all the swooning press talked about, while providing free advertising, leading up to that day of waiting lines full of young techies and other hopeful people.

Sure, some can now afford the current (avg) $60k Model 3, but how many are waiting it out for what was promised?
 
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