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http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23658646-5005200,00.html

Very interesting story and these guys give an insightful big-picture look at what is going on. These are also the guys that predicted a $108 dollar a barrel a few years ago. People laughed at them. They're not laughing now.
I could see a super-spike to $200/barrel short term. I'm not sure it could be maintained, other than by fear.

Right now, as North Americans we feel the pinch in a 'ouch, that kinda hurts' at the pump now. At the same time in third world countries it is all but inexcessible now. Third world make up a very small percentage of the gas users less than 2%.

At $200, we are scaling back, switching in droves to miserly sedans/compacts. At the same time in 'second' tier world countries...gas would become inexcessible to them...which would ease up on demand. 2nd tier countries make up 20% of consumption.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption

Would be interesting to have a poll on where we think gas is at it's price/demand peak. Right now I'd wager about $150...but who knows.
 

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Well, the future price of oil depends on how much demand is killed from the current high price of oil. I love seeing Americans getting on the ball and buying small and efficient cars. See, we don't need no stinking movies, Al Gore yapping (Thanks Al) about global warming, peak oil doomsday ranting, terrorist theories, etc. Nope, all we have to do is rise the price. That's when people pick up their collective heads and say, "Huh?".

So, If we start getting tons of plug-ins on the roads as well as have people cutting back by good percentage then the price will come back down, assuming China and India don't just suck up that excess and more (this is likely). If you look at how us Americans live you can see we have a long way to go towards efficiency. Look at cars in Europe and then look at our cars. Hummm.

However, If we don't make a good effort to stay ahead of the oil depletion curve by converting our oil usage by an equal amount each year then the price will creep back up and make people cut back more. This is how the world will yo-yo to renewability. Though pain and suffering. Smart people will look a few years down the road and say something like, "Hey! This looks like a long-term trend. I think I will prepare for this and get solar panels, an electric car, plant a garden, collect water, and build a green house." Since these smart people will have reduced their energy needs to such a great extent they will be able to handle cost increases of petroleum products (which include just about everything) much better than others. After all, wealth is a state a mind where you are perceived as better off then the people around you. The lucky kid on the block is the one that has $100 bucks while the rest have only $1.

Of course if things really go badly then people will be dying of hunger in shocking numbers, bickering over remaining energy resources will lead to wars and civilization will go into a dark period of long-term economic and social retraction. So, it's kind of important that we stay ahead of the curve, don't you think?
 

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Well, the future price of oil depends on how much demand is killed from the current high price of oil. I love seeing Americans getting on the ball and buying small and efficient cars. See, we don't need no stinking movies, Al Gore yapping (Thanks Al) about global warming, peak oil doomsday ranting, terrorist theories, etc. Nope, all we have to do is rise the price. That's when people pick up their collective heads and say, "Huh?".
Kind of like when the cows discover they've been eating grass.

I agree with your assessment 100%. This can go the easy, the hard way, or a little of both. I'm betting on a little of both. With good leadership, it could trend more towards the easy way. Unfortunately to this point, good leadership has been limited. Let's demand better from here on out.
 

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Texas said: The lucky kid on the block is the one that has $100 bucks while the rest have only $1.
Now there is the truth. Doesn't matter how much or what you have...it is what you have in relation to your peers.

I will say this, we think we are suffering with high gas here. It is a shame we can't look at people outside of our town/state/country and see them as human beings...it is all relative.

It so many of these fringe countries, farm equipment is abandoned, inflation is running rampant, vehicular transportation is severely crippled, people are living right on the edge.

We are in danger ourselves, but if we can fix ourselves, we fix alot of other countries problems indirectly too.
 
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