[Ladogaboy]

We all know GM gets no credit, but that might be literally true. Looking at a recent article by Insideevs, it occurred to me that GM might be the first auto manufacturer to run out of plug-in credits. If the Bolt EV is as popular as it appears to be, GM could easily sell 80,000 Bolt EVs and Volts in 2017. If that is the case (especially with the mad scramble for December 2017 tax year cutoff), we could be looking at GM's plug-in tax credit being reduced to 50% by Q2 - 2018.

I know, I know. Tesla is teh 1337. Will haxor inferior GM with millions of Model 3. All GM's factories are belong to Elon. But I'm dealing with reality here. Sure, Tesla might tool up its factories and start churning out thousands of Model 3, but there's no guarantee. Either way, it's not an enviable position. This means that starting in 2018, every other manufacturer will have a distinct advantage over GM when it comes to selling EVs.

Article

 

[llninja]

I know, I know. Tesla is teh 1337. Will haxor inferior GM with millions of Model 3. All GM's factories are belong to Elon.

Huh? You're either speaking Klingon or autocorrect got the best of you.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

We all know GM gets no credit, but that might be literally true. Looking at a recent article by Insideevs, it occurred to me that GM might be the first auto manufacturer to run out of plug-in credits. If the Bolt EV is as popular as it appears to be, GM could easily sell 80,000 Bolt EVs and Volts in 2017. If that is the case (especially with the mad scramble for December 2017 tax year cutoff), we could be looking at GM's plug-in tax credit being reduced to 50% by Q2 - 2018.

I know, I know. Tesla is teh 1337. Will haxor inferior GM with millions of Model 3. All GM's factories are belong to Elon. But I'm dealing with reality here. Sure, Tesla might tool up its factories and start churning out thousands of Model 3, but there's no guarantee. Either way, it's not an enviable position. This means that starting in 2018, every other manufacturer will have a distinct advantage over GM when it comes to selling EVs.

Article

Each Bolt is worth many more ZEV credits than the Volt. If they need extra time, be prepared for GM to dial back incentives on the Volt.

 

[Ladogaboy]

Huh? You're either speaking Klingon or autocorrect got the best of you.

You haven't experienced Shakespeare until you've heard it in the original Klingon...

That was just my faux troll speak. I hope no one makes a comment like that.

 

[hellsop]

Huh? You're either speaking Klingon or autocorrect got the best of you.

Remember that bit in Airplane where the old lady pops up with "Excuse me, miss, but I speak Jive"? Same thing but for chat-system nerds.

 

[llninja]

Remember that bit in Airplane where the old lady pops up with "Excuse me, miss, but I speak Jive"? Same thing but for chat-system nerds.

Ahh, I get it now. https://youtu.be/g0j2dVuhr6s

 

[llninja]

You haven't experienced Shakespeare until you've heard it in the original Klingon...

That was just my faux troll speak. I hope no one makes a comment like that.

Last year my daughter and her friends bought a series of books as a gift to their English teacher: Shakespeare through text and emojis.

Back to the original topic, Elon has been quoted as thinking about scaling back on deliveries in order to avoid hitting the tax credit limits in order to hold out as long as possible then flood the gates with a bunch of purchases at the 100% tax credit rate.

 

[TSquare]

Remember that bit in Airplane where the old lady pops up with "Excuse me, miss, but I speak Jive"? Same thing but for chat-system nerds.

Yes, and that old lady was Beaver's mom (Leave It To Beaver). You have to be really old to get why that scene is REALLY funnier than it appears now.

 

[Ladogaboy]

Back to the original topic, Elon has been quoted as thinking about scaling back on deliveries in order to avoid hitting the tax credit limits in order to hold out as long as possible then flood the gates with a bunch of purchases at the 100% tax credit rate.

I still wonder how that is going to work out. Open the flood gates right after #200,000? And the poor people who order #180,000-199,999.

 

[llninja]

I still wonder how that is going to work out. Open the flood gates right after #200,000? And the poor people who order #180,000-199,999.

The government website mentions that it is a quarter by quarter basis. So they can slow down deliveries to stay under 200K when the get close to the end of a quarter then sell as many as they can the next quarter and people will still qualify for !00% of the tax credit, no matter how many cars are sold that next quarter.

Edit: the wording is actually slightly different. So when they exceed 200k, the phase out begins the second calendar quarter. So if they time it right, a manufacturer could hold off deliveries and then spend 3 months deliveingmlike crazy to maximize the tax credit benefit. Obviously Tesla can do this as they can control their deliveries. It's a bit harder for GM to do this as they have many cars sitting in dealer lots that they don't have control over.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d

 

[Ladogaboy]

Yes, that is my understanding. So if they predict that they are going to go over near the end of a quarter, they can hold deliveries until the beginning of the next quarter.

 

[DonC]

As mentioned, the Bolt EV gets more ZEV credits than the Volt. Additionally, MY 2017 vehicles get more ZEV credits than MY 2018 vehicles, AND those credits can travel (meaning a credit in CA can be applied to MD and vice versa). Also as mentioned, once you hit the threshold the credits stay for a calendar quarter and then taper down to zero.

My guess, and there is no inside information here, is that because of the ZEV situation we'll see some great deals on the Bolt EV and the Volt as the 2017 MY copies are sold as closeouts.

 

[Henry_FL]

The phase out can allow an unlimited amount of 100% tax credits for 6 months, then 50% for 1 quarters then 25% for 1, finally zero. So when the limit is close ( 200K sold ) the can suspend sales to align till the end of quarter, then open the flood gates of any amount they may have penned with previous production. If Tesla really can sell the X00K cars, they should be able to stuff 50-100K into the 6 month window after the 200K.

Read for ones self, end of this page https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d

 

[Ladogaboy]

I think the question with Tesla is more about whether they can produce that many cars in such a short period of time (we know the demand is there).

 

[devbolt]

The last time I ran the numbers, GM was at 122K total sales of qualifying plug-ins through the end of last year. They sold nearly 29K qualifying cars just last year, and only 579 of those were Bolts, and 3035 were Sparks. If GM sells the same number of Volts this year as last year (24,739) and sells 30K Bolt EVs, that puts the total sales at 177K at the start of 2018, leaving only 23K before the phaseout is triggered. If sales were to remain at that level, it means that probably sometime in the second quarter they will hit their 200K limit. Also, GM sold nearly 2800 plugin vehicles in January, a notoriously slow month for car sales, much less EVs, so sales are likely to up from that level. If GM can produce and sell 50K Bolts this year, however, that means they'll probably hit the phaseout limit in the first quarter.

 

[Ladogaboy]

If GM can produce and sell 50K Bolts this year, however, that means they'll probably hit the phaseout limit in the first quarter.

I think the only reason that wouldn't happen is if GM sends so many Bolt EVs to Europe and Canada that it impacts domestic deliveries.