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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
One prediction as to what will happen to the Gas'ers.

Pulitzer Prize–winning auto columnist Dan Neil recently discussed his next car in the Wall Street Journal — and it’s going to be electric. He writes, “This is above all a pocketbook issue for me. A gas-powered vehicle would be too expensive. I plan to keep my next vehicle 10 years, at least. Over that time, the cost of ownership for an EV, including fuel (on the order of a penny a mile for the electricity), repairs and maintenance would be considerably lower than comparable costs of an IC [internal-combustion] car.”
Neil says, “During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones. No one will want them and there will be nowhere to get them fixed; by that time widespread fleet electrification will have cratered traditional dealerships that depend on service dollars to survive.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/28/wsj-auto-columnist-next-vehicle-to-be-electric-gasmobiles-could-soon-be-like-flip-phones/
 

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Not sure about 1 cent a mile. I calculated mine at 2.6 cents a mile with relatively low electric rates. Flip phones was a bad comparison as some companies are bring flip phones back with the new foldable display technology.
 

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I sometimes still miss my flip phone. Sure, my smart phone does a lot, but I never had my flip phone accidently call someone or open some other app when putting it back in my pocket.
 

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I wouldn't expect this to happen as long as the gas prices stay where they are...
 

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The transition from gas to electric vehicles will take place over 2-3 decades, not years.

Sure, my two cars are EV's but even having one car that's an EV is still very rare.
 

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Some of the folks at Clean Technica really do live in their own special little world, as do a few others - Dan Neil included. Speaking/thinking in absolutes as he does never gets you to a clear picture of anything. Toss on the blinders and pontificate.

I recently spoke of how people see things through the lens of how they want to see themselves regardless of what really exists. This article reeks of that kind of narrow view of the world.

Dan Neil said:
I plan to keep my next vehicle 10 years, at least. Over that time, the cost of ownership for an EV, including fuel (on the order of a penny a mile for the electricity), repairs and maintenance would be considerably lower than comparable costs of an IC [internal-combustion] car.”
Priced a replacement battery have you Dan?

Keep telling yourself what you want to hear.

I went into this EV thing expecting it to cost me more, from initial cost to massive depreciation to battery replacement costs, and possibly a handful of other things I'd never be able to foresee. I don't know how Dan gets the opposite idea, except that he's being ignorant.

Did I forget anything? Yeah..... I had to rewire my house and add an L2 EVSE because the L1 unit wasn't cutting the mustard. My insurance went up too.

I also bought run flats, but I can't blame that on the EV. Those are a good idea for any car that doesn't come with a spare tire. It hurt my EV range but improved the ride of the car, and my wife's anxiety level went down a notch. It's her daily driver.
 

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No doubt he's biased, but the IEA estimate of 125M to 220M EVs by 2030 is interesting, given that there were only 3M in 2018. Doesn't sound to me like the IEA would be biased towards electricity over oil. That's a huge amount of growth predicted for the next dozen years.
 

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No doubt he's biased, but the EIA estimate of 125M to 220M EVs by 2030 is interesting, given that there were only 3M in 2018. Doesn't sound to me like the EIA would be biased towards electricity over oil. That's a huge amount of growth predicted for the next dozen years.
I like EIA (fixed that acronym for you in the quote BTW). They're very non-partisan. But forward-looking statements are that and only that. I live today. Today is yesterday's tomorrow. Guess what? Today is no different from yesterday.

2020
2023
2035
2050

Pick your year for forward-looking predictions on GM, climate, battery tech, whatever....... It's getting old. I was tired of it yesterday too.

Sorry. :(

And EIA is not biased toward or against anything as far as I can tell.
 

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Today I can buy a car that has today's abilities. For the next 10 years it will have today's abilities.

The only car company I'm aware of that sold a future option is Tesla (fully autonomous). They took it off the option list. Whether it's a pending lawsuit or the fear of one coming, they were selling something they haven't delivered.

Otherwise, today I can't get GM to make my 2014 Volt have the range of a 2018 Volt. I can buy a 2019 Volt today. In 2029 it will still be limited to today's abilities.

Feel free to tell me about what I can't have today but maybe tomorrow. It doesn't change anything today, which is where I exist.

Today I can buy a flip phone. But I already have one anyway.
 

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Tomorrow is yesterday's memories.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
No one seems to have a crystal ball. But because of that, there is doubt somewhere in the back of everyone's mind, hmmm ... this might just happen.
 

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I'm not sure why you started the thread on today's features vs tomorrow. I didn't say anything about it. Was it in the original article? Didn't see it. Seems like a bit of a straw man. I thought the writer only said he was keeping his car for 10 years, and that it would be cheaper than keeping an ICE. Did he say anything about getting new features?

Anyhow, since you raised the topic, Tesla is following Apple's model with regular software updates, adding functionality. My 2 and a ½ week old Model 3 has had 2 software updates, and the app has had 3 updates. The car now has the version 9 software, with Auto Lane Change, 360 degree view of the cars around me, On to Off ramp Navigation on Autopilot. The app can now turn on individual seat heaters, when preconditioning, and in-app service scheduling. So, you can buy a car, with new abilities added in the future.

As for FSD, Full-Self Driving, they pulled the option, because Elon promised that new neural chips would be free to existing FSD owners. But rather than continuing to install chips that are going to get replaced, they decided to pull the option until the chip was ready. Besides, Nav on Autopilot actually has some of the function of the promised FSD.
Today I can buy a car that has today's abilities. For the next 10 years it will have today's abilities.

The only car company I'm aware of that sold a future option is Tesla (fully autonomous). They took it off the option list. Whether it's a pending lawsuit or the fear of one coming, they were selling something they haven't delivered.

Otherwise, today I can't get GM to make my 2014 Volt have the range of a 2018 Volt. I can buy a 2019 Volt today. In 2029 it will still be limited to today's abilities.

Feel free to tell me about what I can't have today but maybe tomorrow. It doesn't change anything today, which is where I exist.

Today I can buy a flip phone. But I already have one anyway.
 

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Discussion Starter #13 (Edited)
Really had more to do with this prediction.

Neil says, “During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones. No one will want them and there will be nowhere to get them fixed; by that time widespread fleet electrification will have cratered traditional dealerships that depend on service dollars to survive.”
About 20 years ago I took up the RC plane hobby. I watched EV planes come on to the scene. They started off as gliders (low fruit on the tree because of the lower power requirements). And the E-planes became more and more common, until at some point they caught up and passed the liquid fuel planes in every metric we could use to measure them (fairly similar discussions as we are having right now with the exception of less likely hood of getting a finger lopped off in an E-Plane prop, because you can actually take motor RPM to zero anytime you want, no need to keep combustion alive). Suddenly there was a complete collapse in the market, guys were dumping their liquid fuel planes for pennies on the dollar. Now, greater than 95% of the planes I see at the fields are E-planes with lithium batteries.

Spoke with a gentleman last year whose brother just purchased a real piloted gas powered glider. Super good price. Discussion with the owner went something like, everyone wants electric powered gliders now. Having a tough time selling the gas powered ones.

In some regards I am pretty sure what the future looks like, I am just not exactly sure when the future looks that way.
 

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I'm not sure why you started the thread on today's features vs tomorrow........ Was it in the original article?
Plenty, and......

.....the IEA estimate of 125M to 220M EVs by 2030 is.....
Does that help clarify things a little?

I don't drive a crystal ball.

I'm very happy for you that Tesla gave you fresh software. Some of the things you mention exist in other cars right off the lot, and one of them makes it less likely that your autopilot will kill you as it has a few other people. I hope you'll forgive me for not being overly excited about it.

And I'm sure you'll let us know when your Tesla becomes fully autonomous. Until then I'll make a prediction of my own for what it's worth. That isn't going to happen. Surely not in your lifetime.
 

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And I'm sure you'll let us know when your Tesla becomes fully autonomous. Until then I'll make a prediction of my own for what it's worth. That isn't going to happen. Surely not in your lifetime.
Actually that would be now. Elon was looking for 100 employees to put on fully autonomous auto pilot for $8,000 on their existing Tesla's. The program was then opened up for more.


I've lived through the $1,000 microwave, $469 19" colour TV, $1,400 CD player, $999 Betamax HiFi Stereo Tape Recorder, the $5,000 B&W laser printer, the $3,000 386 computer, $3,000 basic fax, $14,000 800 lb. copy machine, the $90,000 black ink jet printer, all prices at the time they were introduced (real money) so I'm not surprised at pie in the sky predictions although it's true the 1960's prediction of a flying car in every garage (scary thought) and a car run by a miniature fusion reactor that never needed fuel never panned out.
 

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Actually that would be now. Elon was looking for 100 employees to put on fully autonomous auto pilot for $8,000 on their existing Tesla's. The program was then opened up for more.
No one sells a fully autonomous vehicle for highway use. Tell the truth.
 

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Today I can buy a car that has today's abilities. For the next 10 years it will have today's abilities.

The only car company I'm aware of that sold a future option is Tesla (fully autonomous). They took it off the option list. Whether it's a pending lawsuit or the fear of one coming, they were selling something they haven't delivered.

Otherwise, today I can't get GM to make my 2014 Volt have the range of a 2018 Volt. I can buy a 2019 Volt today. In 2029 it will still be limited to today's abilities.

Feel free to tell me about what I can't have today but maybe tomorrow. It doesn't change anything today, which is where I exist.

Today I can buy a flip phone. But I already have one anyway.
Most products I think are not upgradeable from the OEM over their life. In general upgrading applies to software. Changing software can eventually make the hardware obsolete as the new software requires more hardware to run effectively.
 

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No one sells a fully autonomous vehicle for highway use. Tell the truth.
They are "selling" the hardware for $8,000 which includes installation. The employees have to put up this money, Tesla isn't providing it for free, just like when you upgrade to HID they are selling you the lights (without installation). The interesting thing is what happens if an employee sells his Tesla? I suppose it would be easy enough to turn off the software remotely if they didn't want the liability. Must be all spelled out in the purchase agreement.
 

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I think the point is being missed. For 5 years I've read that "the ICE is dead". In truth, it's never been more alive.

"Governments are going to ban the ICE". Great politics for clicks. Bad policy for real people. Have they stopped protesting in France yet? I think the yellow vests are out there today (they were yesterday). I hear the Dutch and Belgians have joined in.

Electric vehicles will or won't be adopted by choice. If you want force try China, though that hasn't happened yet either. Venezuela maybe?

I have one. Dan wants one. But my neighbors aren't joining in. I'm an island on my street, so to speak. When I go out on the road I notice the EVs more than other people because I have one. What I also notice is how they're surrounded overwhelmingly by ICE cars. That hasn't changed in 5 years. Neither has the fact that My EV is joined by an evil pickup truck in the garage.

I wonder if they fight with each other at night when I'm asleep...... :rolleyes:
 

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Europe, China, California... these ‘countries ‘... lol will probably drive the green evolution of BEVs ....aren’t the ‘green ‘ European countries already seeing record sakes of Tesla’s and the like ... Gas has always been expensive that’s why you tend to see more motorcycles scooters and ( unclean) diesel vehicles ... but in light of VW groups shenanigans Europe is finally waking up to the unclean diesel... here in the land of the free and relatively cheap petrol , despite Tesla’s massive early push , I see gas clinging on for at least another decade ... maybe longer !!
Also envisage the UK fitting inside Texas , now that < 300 mile Bolt looks mighty useful , day to day !!
 
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