[Steverino]

Ford posts $2B loss, says money was left on the table. Ford CFO John Lawler said Thursday that Ford’s EV business is not currently profitable, but said that higher EV margins will be unlocked with its next-generation vehicles, which are expected to begin production in 2025.

Cutting the price of its EV's to increase sales of money losers in reaction to Tesla now sounds even more dumb. Ford's overall and EV sales grew in January vs. a year ago, the company announced Thursday. But both total and EV sales saw month-over-month declines.

Note that 2025 is a reference to moving away from Ford's current "one-off" EV approach of converting gas cars into electric like GM did in 2010 with the Volt. 2025 is when Ford hopes to have an EV platform of some kind maybe like GM's Ultium platform. Add 2-3 years to scale that.

Ford is making Mara Barra and her team look very, very good.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621284366679695360

 

[anxiousMN]

Ford is just getting started and will have growing pains with EV vehicles. Tesla had those problems and now make the highest profit per vehicle of any car sold (even ICE). So, probably a decade from now Ford will start making money on EVs. Hope Mary can get their products to full EV but doubtful, they say they will have 30 EVs by 2025 but it's 2023 and the only one you can buy is the Bolt and dealers can't get them. Go Volt!

 

[Steverino]

they say they will have 30 EVs by 2025 but it's 2023 and the only one you can buy is the Bolt and dealers can't get them. Go Volt!

I'm not sure whether it's 20 or 30, regardless their EV count includes China and is not exclusive to North America.

So far: Hummer EV, Cadillac Lyric EV, Silverado EV and Hummer SUV EV are up to bat this year as are the Blazer EV and Equinox EV. Sierra EV and Buick Electra EV and others coming as well. Not sure when the Silverado WT (Work Truck) is due. That's 9. Are they counting the new Corvette e-Ray? If so, that's 10.

Yes, GM is selling all they are making, hence no need to price cut. Currently GM is constrained by battery output from the one Ultium factory operating so far and it's still in the ramp up/shake-down cruise stage.

 

[anxiousMN]

I'm not sure whether it's 20 or 30, regardless their EV count includes China and is not exclusive to North America.

So far: Hummer EV, Cadillac Lyric EV, Silverado EV and Hummer SUV EV are up to bat this year as are the Blazer EV and Equinox EV. Sierra EV and Buick Electra EV and others coming as well. Not sure when the Silverado WT (Work Truck) is due. That's 9. Are they counting the new Corvette e-Ray? If so, that's 10.

Yes, GM is selling all they are making, hence no need to price cut. Currently GM is constrained by battery output from the one Ultium factory operating so far and it's still in the ramp up/shake-down cruise stage.

Bolt is the best bargain out there! All the rest are too spendy, not available, etc. Volt is the best, love my 2017. One bad thing, son's 2011 now needs the battery charger module. On backorder and not cheap to replace. I'm going to discuss the installation charges with the dealer when/if they can actually get it. Still, cheapest used car out there! Your comments and knowledge are always appreciated.

 

[Owl]

People don't realize how far ahead GM is over the other two in Detroit. They now own half a lithium mine in Nevada, are building a Cathode plant in Quebec, have one battery plant running, a second finished, a third under construction, a fourth in planning stages. More in the works. Vertical integration and the Ultium platform will give them vast pricing power over competitors. Ford way behind, Stellantis and LG just started (this week) putting the steel up on it first battery plant in Windsor. As for a total EV lineup at GM, I think they're just pledging that as a 'stretch goal.'

 

[Steverino]

Tortoise & Haire
Ford took the faster, flashier "one hit wonder" approach with both the Mach-E and Lightning. I don't blame them, they are trying to be in the game with what they have. It got Ford quick PR and EV sales. People complained that GM was lagging, no Silverado EV. Ford was "beating" GM.

Like the old kid's story, GM is the tortoise to Ford's haire in this story.

One-Offs vs a Long Term Integrated Platform
The efforts Ford put into those two EV's are not really transferable to the rest of their lineup. Meanwhile GM has been busy building a platform to be used across all brands and vehicle types and price ranges. Rather than a one-off of stuffing batteries into an ICE Silverado, they took a broader, more strategic long term approach that also included some hard cost cutting. Now the planning, preparation that started in 2017 when they decided to go all EV by 2035 is starting to kick in with 7 EV's for 2023 in North America and 3 or 4(?) in China with more on the way. More slowly than many would like, but the wave of new EV's and battery plants is starting to grow.

Commercial Delivery Vans
I left out the BrightDrop Zevo 600 (was EV600) commercial delivery van, that started being delivered last year as well. It also uses the Ultium platform. A second BrightDrop van, the Zevo 400 is underway for 2023. GM is forecasting $1B in BrightDrop EV sales for 2023.

Cruise Automation
And whatever you think about autonomous vehicles, GM's Cruise Automation is now a leader along with Waymo in robo-taxi's having expanded to three cities and the Origin production line in Michigan ramping up. Ford and a number of others recently dropped out of this space with their Argo initiative. Too far behind, too expensive. But GM sees ride sharing as another way to make and sell cars to those who don't need to own a car.

All of this and more have been underway, seemingly below the surface of market perception. GM earned $10B, Ford lost $2B. Ford is cutting prices, GM is not.

Storm Clouds
So far, GM is executing the plan they started discussing years ago. One area of concern I have is battery production ramp up time. The number of EV's GM can sell is constrained by the number of Ultium battery bricks they can make. The Ohio plant needs to continue its ramp up and hit full production asap. The other 2 plants will need to do the same, one this year, the other in 2024. The fourth plant has hit a snag: LG wants to go slow, not move forward. But GM will need that 4th plant to achieve its EV sales goals. Will GM want to build more production capability into the other three to make up the shortfall? Will they team with another battery maker for plant #4? Will LG change their mind?

The other concern will be the economy in 2023, 2024, 2025. Key sales years in GM's plans. So far, GM feels they can handle some headwinds, but they are tightening their belt with $2B in cost cutting nonetheless. We will see.

 

[obermd]

To be honest, GM started with the one-off designs having questionable finances with the first generation Volt. They continued it to the second generation Volt and then to the Bolt. All the while they were learning how to manage lithium ion batteries. The culmination of those efforts is what drove the Ultium/Ultifii architecture.

 

[Christian777]

So in other words.. hold on to your Volts A little longer until Ultium can reach full production and GM can put out truly affordable EVs with competitive range, charging times, and maintenance cost. (This will also give the charging infrastructure the much needed time to expand)

Then enjoy the show as all the competition fumbles.

 

[hellsop]

To be honest, GM started with the one-off designs having questionable finances with the first generation Volt. They continued it to the second generation Volt and then to the Bolt. All the while they were learning how to manage lithium ion batteries. The culmination of those efforts is what drove the Ultium/Ultifii architecture.

That's fair, but it's.... probably a necessary step to take. People talk about the Volt as a "compliance car", but what it may have actually served as is a learning platform, supplying valuable data about how people use their EVs and what kinds of failures to expect with them, which is valuable stuff to know when plunging into designing a platform. We'd never have gotten "Replicable modules" or "too much BMS wiring is a huge hassle; distribute that" from conventional design wisdom established through the 2010s or looking at the winning moments. To learn how those things are useful and provide for overall cost savings, you have to experience the failures and think "wouldn't it be awesome if we could replace only part of the battery?"

 

[Steverino]

Right, in 2021 Ford was where GM was in December 2010 with the release of the 2011 Volt. Now Ford is looking to cut costs, streamline and create an EV platform. GM started some of that in 2010 and really got going in 2017.

 

[dvb]

Well, those, who make a new path are always slower, than those, who follow that path. Some hard things are already found out and the followers won't mess with choosing the right decision - just watch the leader.

I guess Ford will catch up by 2030-2035.

 

[begreen]

Right, in 2021 Ford was where GM was in December 2010 with the release of the 2011 Volt. Now Ford is looking to cut costs, streamline and create an EV platform. GM started some of that in 2010 and really got going in 2017.

Except that Ford did gain experience with the hybrid CMax and Fusion. They also had a 7 yr run starting with the 2011 Focus EV. None were home runs, but they were not snoozing back then either.

 

[Steverino]

Except that Ford did gain experience with the hybrid CMax and Fusion. They also had a 7 yr run starting with the 2011 Focus EV. None were home runs, but they were not snoozing back then either.

True, but that points out how much worse it is for Ford.

Given Ford had one-off's going back around the time of the Volt, why doesn't Ford have a well thought out EV platform in production by now? GM came out in 2021. I think one reason may be Ford outsourced EV efforts to Magna International. Another is they simply failed to act. Mary Barra made a make or break "all in" decision in 2017. Ford leadership did not.

 

[begreen]

Mary Barra made a make or break "all in" decision in 2017. Ford leadership did not.

Agreed. It's why I own GM stock and not Ford.

 

[voltreg]

I like the idea of having the flexibility of a giant portable battery pack that can be hooked up to the house.

The Found On Road Dead Lightning experience did not go so well for Will unfortunately.

 

[Steverino]

"Sheldon" (Will) is going to charge the Lightning's battery at free public chargers and then use it to mine bitcoin. Ugh.

Regarding the issues he found with his truck, Ford CEO Jim Farley said, “Ford has been the #1 in recalls in the US for the last 2 years. Clearly, that’s not acceptable.”

I wonder if his hacked attempt at charging his solar panel batteries caused the later charging issue he had?

His free charger experience does point out the advantage Tesla has with it's charge stations.

 

[marcusm]

That's fair, but it's.... probably a necessary step to take. People talk about the Volt as a "compliance car", but what it may have actually served as is a learning platform, supplying valuable data about how people use their EVs and what kinds of failures to expect with them, which is valuable stuff to know when plunging into designing a platform. We'd never have gotten "Replicable modules" or "too much BMS wiring is a huge hassle; distribute that" from conventional design wisdom established through the 2010s or looking at the winning moments. To learn how those things are useful and provide for overall cost savings, you have to experience the failures and think "wouldn't it be awesome if we could replace only part of the battery?"

Let’s be honest: us Volt owners were beta testers for GM, but overall no complaints from me. I’d like to keep my Gen 2s until ultiums are well established.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Steverino]

Let’s be honest: us Volt owners were beta testers for GM, but overall no complaints from me.

Sure, kind of. But my 2011 was very well built, minimal issues, A bad oil hose at 30k, replaced free. A bad passenger car seat heater at 70k. YMMV
And Ford had the same "beta" testing with the CMax. GM learned and improved, Ford, not so much it seems.

 

[tripowergto 2010]

Let’s be honest: us Volt owners were beta testers for GM, but overall no complaints from me.

Perhaps, but we certainly were provided with a well engineered, high quality "mostly" BEV. Leaf owners from the same era would claim otherwise with their initial BEV experience.

 

[Sheldon]

Ford is just getting started and will have growing pains with EV vehicles. ... probably a decade from now Ford will start making money on EVs. Hope Mary can get their products to full EV but doubtful, they say they will have 30 EVs by 2025 but it's 2023 and the only one you can buy is the Bolt and dealers can't get them. Go Volt!

People don't realize how far ahead GM is over the other two in Detroit. They now own half a lithium mine in Nevada, are building a Cathode plant in Quebec, have one battery plant running, a second finished, a third under construction, a fourth in planning stages. More in the works. Vertical integration ....

GM also has a huge advantage over Ford since the Bolt is six years old mature cost optimized design, whereas the Ford Mustang isn't as well engineered for cost, and the Mustang is a new design.