EV-related news from GM investor slides

5503 Views 10 Replies 8 Participants Last post by Mister Dave, Oct 3, 2015

bro1999

Discussion Starter · Oct 2, 2015 (Edited)

I cut and pasted slides of interest from the GM investor slides used for the investor conference held yesterday. A good chunk of EV-related news in the slides. Of note:

- Bolt EV definitely coming by end of 2016! (at least in CA probably)
- $145 kWh battery cost for Bolt EV at its launch
- next gen Volt has much of the hardware already in place for autonomous driving
- '16 Volt profit margin improvement of $3,500 compared to Gen 1

Full pdf available at http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External...RJRD01OTYxNTU= (thanks to Breezy for link)

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Breezy

· #2 · Oct 2, 2015

Thanks for breaking out the slides. I took the link from user tftf at teslamotorsclub.com

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Neromanceres

· #3 · Oct 2, 2015

Forcast shows $100 per KWh by 2022. Very nice.

$145 per KWh puts the Bolt EV battery cost at close to $8K. That was the rumored cost of the Volt battery back in 2010.

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bro1999

Discussion Starter · #4 · Oct 2, 2015 (Edited)

Neromanceres said:
Forcast shows $100 per KWh by 2022. Very nice.

$145 per KWh puts the Bolt EV battery cost at close to $8K. That was the rumored cost of the Volt battery back in 2010.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/boblutz/2012/09/10/the-real-story-on-gms-volt-costs/

The above is an article written by Bob Lutz describing the Gen 1 Volt's battery costs 3 years ago. Lutz says the cost was $350/kWh. To think the cost will have dropped almost 60% in 3 years is pretty amazing. Based off the figures he gave in that article, other battery-related component costs were $4k....or 2/3 of the battery pack cost. If the Bolt EV's pack cost is in the 8-9k range, the other equipment may add another 5-6k for a total cost of $13-14k. That would leave around $20k for the rest of the vehicle, assuming GM wants to make a 10% margin.

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ItsNotAboutTheMoney

· #5 · Oct 2, 2015

Neromanceres said:
Forcast shows $100 per KWh by 2022. Very nice.

$145 per KWh puts the Bolt EV battery cost at close to $8K. That was the rumored cost of the Volt battery back in 2010.

Of course, that's just the _cell_ cost. I'm told that battery factories aren't free.

Not that I'm dismissing the cell cost. It's not the entire cost, and as cell densities rise, the battery cost overhead should decrease. Plus, when dealing with warranties and replacement, battery components can be re-used.

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Jeff N

· #6 · Oct 2, 2015

$145 per kWh at cell level today is probably the same or less than what Tesla pays Panasonic today so $145 is a big surprise to me. The projected cost of $100 in 2022 is what Tesla has only recently fantasized about reaching by the time of the full operating capacity of their Nevada GigaFactory around the same 2020-2022 timeframe. These are aggressively low costs from LG for Bolt cells.

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bonaire

· #7 · Oct 2, 2015

bro1999 said:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/boblutz/2012/09/10/the-real-story-on-gms-volt-costs/

The above is an article written by Bob Lutz describing the Gen 1 Volt's battery costs 3 years ago. Lutz says the cost was $350/kWh. To think the cost will have dropped almost 60% in 3 years is pretty amazing. Based off the figures he gave in that article, other battery-related component costs were $4k....or 2/3 of the battery pack cost. If the Bolt EV's pack cost is in the 8-9k range, the other equipment may add another 5-6k for a total cost of $13-14k. That would leave around $20k for the rest of the vehicle, assuming GM wants to make a 10% margin.

Not three years but 6-7. The costs are set at initial-year and may not drop much over time. Lutz was gone from GM by about 2012? So, he is familiar with the battery pricing going in as input costs in 2010. Now, 2016 you have the big drop. 8% a year maybe?

I would love to see a Bolt at $34k starting price for a stripped model (non-leather, no fancy Nav, no Bose).

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DonC

· #8 · Oct 3, 2015

Neromanceres said:
$145 per KWh puts the Bolt EV battery cost at close to $8K. That was the rumored cost of the Volt battery back in 2010.

From a presentation given by a woman engineer: $8K for the cells. $3.5K for the power electronics and other stuff. $11.5K overall.

ItsNotAboutTheMoney said:
Of course, that's just the _cell_ cost. I'm told that battery factories aren't free.

The cost of the factory should be reflected in the cost of the cells. But the power electronics, heating, cooling, etc. are extra. In the Volt 1.0 this was supposedly $3.5K but electronics are more Moore's law than battery law.

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bonaire

· #9 · Oct 3, 2015

Jeff N said:
$145 per kWh at cell level today is probably the same or less than what Tesla pays Panasonic today so $145 is a big surprise to me. The projected cost of $100 in 2022 is what Tesla has only recently fantasized about reaching by the time of the full operating capacity of their Nevada GigaFactory around the same 2020-2022 timeframe. These are aggressively low costs from LG for Bolt cells.

The more thongs progress, the less Advantage I see Tesla having. Other than in the press and stock market.

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bro1999

Discussion Starter · #10 · Oct 3, 2015

bonaire said:
Jeff N said:

$145 per kWh at cell level today is probably the same or less than what Tesla pays Panasonic today so $145 is a big surprise to me. The projected cost of $100 in 2022 is what Tesla has only recently fantasized about reaching by the time of the full operating capacity of their Nevada GigaFactory around the same 2020-2022 timeframe. These are aggressively low costs from LG for Bolt cells.

Click to expand...

The more thongs progress, the less Advantage I see Tesla having. Other than in the press and stock market.

Gotta love those thongs!

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Mister Dave

· #11 · Oct 3, 2015

bonaire said:
The more thongs progress, the less Advantage I see Tesla having. Other than in the press and stock market.

Works for the Donald.

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