[Steverino]

BNP Paribas Report: Wells, Wires, And Wheels… Eroci And The Tough Road Ahead For Oil, introduces the concept of the Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI), focusing on the energy return on a $100bn outlay on oil and renewables where the energy is being used to power cars and other light-duty vehicles (LDVs).

According to the report, the commodity would have to be priced at $10-$20 a barrel to remain competitive as a transport fuel.

The new research says that the economics of renewable energy make it impossible for oil to compete at current prices. The author of the report, global head of sustainability Mark Lewis, says that “renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand”.

Our analysis indicates that for the same capital outlay today, new wind and solar-energy projects in tandem with battery electric vehicles will produce six to seven times more useful energy at the wheels than will oil at $60 per barrel for gasoline powered light-duty vehicles, and three to four times more than will oil at $60 per barrel for light-duty vehicles running on diesel,” says Lewis.

We conclude that the economics of oil for gasoline and diesel vehicles versus wind- and solar-powered EVs are now in relentless and irreversible decline, with far-reaching implications for both policymakers and the oil majors.

The competitive advantage is set to shift decisively in favour of EVs over oil-powered cars in the next five years. In our view, this is much sooner than the oil industry thinks

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikesc...s-a-transport-fuel-are-numbered/#435506bf5102

There's more interesting stuff in there, but basically, money invested in solar and wind delivers transportation energy much cheaper than the same dollars invested in oil extraction. EV's enable drivers to break free of oil's higher cost transportation energy. Of course, vested interests will do all they can to make sure politicians throw as many obstacles in the way as possible. Not that they need to do much, given the public's indifference to EV's as indicated by the low sales numbers.

 

[FI Spyder]

I think the adoption of EVs will be more logarithmic than straight line. It will vary by location of course. Here on the big Island you see more and more EVs every week. On the smaller islands even more so. Canada has the federal $5,000 rebate and provincial government $3,000 rebate on top of that. On the coast every little hamlet has free L2 charging and the provincial electric utility has CCS going up to cover the province at 3 times residential rates (residential rates are 9 to 12 cents Cdn. per Kw. depending on daily amount use, not on time of use). With the site C dam completion it is projected to have enough capacity for the next hundred years not accounting for major projects like the LNG liquidation plant that was cancelled. The more people see EVs the more they will consider them. The more people see older EVs the more they will consider them. Then there's the EV/ICE cost parity, new technologies that will flow from the billions of dollars of research each car company is putting in so they don't get left behind that will result in breakthroughs. Difficult to predict the future (although Gene Roddenberry did a pretty good job with things like cell phones and portable medical diagnostic machines).

 

[alfon]

Don't forget the Government, state, and in time the federal as well there will surcharges for EV vehicles for both personal and commercial use. Its already happening in many states. Pretty sad when a 3 ton 10 mpg pickup truck pays less for yearly vehicle registration then a Chevy Bolt or Volt.

The Government always remembers in time that no good deed goes unpunished. Its always has and always will as it is only about the money.

If you think the New Green Deal will bail us out, I have a bridge to sell you in China.......

 

[obermd]

the public's indifference to EV's as indicated by the low sales numbers.

I read this report a few weeks ago. It was very eye opening. As for the public's indifference to EVs, this will change quickly if gas pump prices start to climb.

 

[hickman55]

BNP Paribas is objectively anti-fossil fuel. They have very publicly denounced fracking and have taken a position of not loaning money to the fossil fuel industry. Having said that, I won't say they are wrong, only that what they say should be taken with a grain of salt and believe their timeline may be optimistically wishful thinking.

 

[Tacoma]

It is my opinion that we have the technology right now to make a major dent in the use of fossil fuels, we just have to have the will to implement it.
Vested interests will not give up their positions without a fight.
However, we have the collective right to envision a better future and make that happen.

 

[obermd]

It is my opinion that we have the technology right now to make a major dent in the use of fossil fuels, we just have to have the will to implement it.
Vested interests will not give up their positions without a fight.
However, we have the collective right to envision a better future and make that happen.

Using the tools available right now. I just had an discussion on Townhall about this transition and the fact that as we move off oil we need to ensure we don't throw oil's benefits out with oil itself. I pointed out that oil's negative effects were visible in the early 20th century but that we don't need to be able to predict hundreds of years out to know that the right thing to do now with our current technology is move off oil as a direct power source for transportation.

The single largest "low hanging fruit", as it were, is transitioning ground transportation from Oil based internal combustion to electric, regardless of how the electricity is generated. This transition will be very disruptive in that over two thirds of the revenue for oil companies comes from ground transportation and about 50% of dealership revenue comes from servicing internal combustion engines (both routine and repair work). EVs will hurt both these very large and entrenched economic forces.

The problem with the "Green New Deal" is that it ignores the reality of who benefits from oil based transportation. The ultimate beneficiary is every individual who works in the oil industry as well as all the dealership service departments. You cannot make this change quickly - it will take a generation or two to complete this transition. It took nearly 50 years for horse and buggy to be fully replaced by the internal combustion engine, with the transition starting in the big cities where the cost/benefit worked the best and then moving out to rural areas.

In the meantime, large solar and wind farms are already cheaper to build and operate in some places than fossil fuel (coal, oil, methane, natural gas, etc.) and provide the same level of 24x7 power, via on-site storage of excess power, that fossil fuel plants have provided for the last century.