[bro1999]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/10/inv...a-lot-of-rope-but-may-soon-lose-patience.html

If Tesla doesn't start posting some black numbers soon and Elon doesn't back up his boastful predictions, investors may take that rope they've given Tesla and hang TSLA with it.

"There is no question that Tesla makes a good luxury car, there is some question about whether Tesla is a well run company, given the production delays and huge cash burn and there are serious questions about whether holders of the stock at these levels could ever make a positive return," Morgan Creek Capital's founder and chief investment officer Mark Yusko, whose firm manages $1.8 billion, wrote in an email. "Every month that passes without significant deliveries of the Model 3 will shine the lights on Tesla and force stockholders to check under the hood and they may be distressed to find a cash incineration engine."

 

[Bill Step]

until then buy,,then short the schit out of it.

 

[jbakerjonathan]

The natives are restless tonight...

 

[DAC17]

I own TSLA January 2019 puts. I cannot believe the amount of snake oil that's going on here. Every single manufacturer making electric cars is losing money on them. But GM, for instance, makes $15K on every full-size SUV it makes. Tesla has no such profit offsets. How can they do that for much longer??

 

[Upper5Percent]

I own TSLA January 2019 puts. I cannot believe the amount of snake oil that's going on here. Every single manufacturer making electric cars is losing money on them. But GM, for instance, makes $15K on every full-size SUV it makes. Tesla has no such profit offsets. How can they do that for much longer??

I think Earnings Forecast Focus following analysis is more realistic. "It is silly to short Tesla (TSLA) until Tesla’s biggest story – gross margin of 25% at 5,000 Model 3s per week – falls apart. I believe that this story will fall apart in 3Q18. At that point, Tesla will have likely produced 5,000 Model 3s a week for a full quarter and will not have a 25% gross margin to show for it."

Cult stocks are a dangerous investment...long or short...

 

[DAC17]

I think Earnings Forecast Focus following analysis is more realistic. "It is silly to short Tesla (TSLA) until Tesla’s biggest story – gross margin of 25% at 5,000 Model 3s per week – falls apart. I believe that this story will fall apart in 3Q18. At that point, Tesla will have likely produced 5,000 Model 3s a week for a full quarter and will not have a 25% gross margin to show for it."

Cult stocks are a dangerous investment...long or short...

Precisely the reason for the January 2019's!

 

[Mister Dave]

I own TSLA January 2019 puts. I cannot believe the amount of snake oil that's going on here. Every single manufacturer making electric cars is losing money on them. But GM, for instance, makes $15K on every full-size SUV it makes. Tesla has no such profit offsets. How can they do that for much longer??

Keep selling 'junk' bonds? Uh-oh: Tesla’s junk bond issue is already trading underwater

California "Tesla subsidy"? Oh shucks: California Bill Drops $3 Billion EV Rebate Plan & Switches To Studies

Well I'm out of ideas....

 

[Henry_FL]

I own TSLA January 2019 puts.

This issue with options is timing. While one maybe correct on the eventual trend, timing it is the key. My experience is that the trend can go for much longer than one thinks. While 14+ months seems like a long time, look at the stock and then say what would have happened a year earlier with the same outlook ...

 

[Mister Dave]

Precisely the reason for the January 2019's!

I'm curious why you feel that way.

 

[Coppersnowboarder]

United States investors have been losing on returns from Donald Trump for the length of time of a full-term pregnancy. Certainly, applying a similar standard to Tesla, the stock may remain erroneously highly-valued for years. Personally, I am finding other investments for my money.

 

[DonC]

I knew Tesla was bleeding cash but didn't realize it would be almost $5B in one year. That's a lot of money.

I used to think it was 50-50 that Tesla would make it. Now I'm kinda leaning 60-40 it doesn't. However, if investors continue to provide capital Tesla could become profitable at some point. Likely not profitable enough, nor with growth strong enough, to support the current stock price, but profitable enough to stay in business. Some positive outcome would definitely help electrification. Tesla doesn't sell many cars, but it has demonstrated that you can sell electrics by stressing performance. It's great that Tesla is probably thought to produce more performance oriented cars than BMW.

The "cash incineration engine" phrase is funny.

 

[bro1999]

I knew Tesla was bleeding cash but didn't realize it would be almost $5B in one year. That's a lot of money.

I used to think it was 50-50 that Tesla would make it. Now I'm kinda leaning 60-40 it doesn't. However, if investors continue to provide capital Tesla could become profitable at some point. Likely not profitable enough, nor with growth strong enough, to support the current stock price, but profitable enough to stay in business. Some positive outcome would definitely help electrification. Tesla doesn't sell many cars, but it has demonstrated that you can sell electrics by stressing performance. It's great that Tesla is probably thought to produce more performance oriented cars than BMW.

The "cash incineration engine" phrase is funny.

As the Tesla fanbois will tell you, "you have to spend money to make money". Unfortunately, Tesla has spent a LOT of money (hence the cash incineration engine moniker) and yet to turn a profit (aside from a couple of quarters where they used ZEV credit sales to just barely squeeze into the black) as a dog and pony show for investors.

 

[Sly Bob]

I don't know how much longer Tesla will be around but I hope they are for a while yet. We can thank them for making the EV popular and driving other manufacturers to build them.
I'm not a fan boy, far from it. I work for a rival car company but I can't see how Tesla can survive in the long term.

 

[Qinsp]

I would never short TSLA or any other unstable highly overvalued stock.

When an instrument has no actual value, such a bitcoin, TSLA, etc, you are playing Russian Roulette.

Bad News? The price can shoot up or down by a large amount. People will try to buy more at a bargain, others will see they are losing big money. 5% changes in corporate worth in 8 hours is insane especially when it's a frequent occurrence.

Buy GM, collect your 4-5% a year dividends while you watch it escalate because GM is undervalued.

 

[jbakerjonathan]

The Russians again! Isn't there ANY conversation to be had where there aren't Russians? LOL Now it's Russian Roulette!

Anyway, gotta get ready for my X-country trip beginning next week, in my 2014 Volt. Hopefully, Tesla Motors will not fold while I'm gone. 8^)

 

[hellsop]

I'm curious why you feel that way.

For one thing, by Jan 2019 the federal tax credits to car buyers will be all gone (for both Tesla and GM)

 

[Upper5Percent]

Precisely the reason for the January 2019's!

I think you'll discover January will be too late...4Q18 could be a blood bath...unless Elon goes public with SpaceX and then rolls the money pit Tesla into it, just like he did with the money pit Solar City rolling into Tesla...therefore "kicking the proverbial can down the road"...YET AGAIN...

Which is why I avoid cult stocks...

 

[Mister Dave]

Which is why I wanted the opinion of the person who actually dropped the money on it. TSLA has grown substantially this past year, but it's volatile beyond belief. It looks more like a day trader game to me, so I'm curious on how a put for Jan 19 is strategic timing.

Just curious......

 

[Upper5Percent]

I knew Tesla was bleeding cash but didn't realize it would be almost $5B in one year. That's a lot of money.

I used to think it was 50-50 that Tesla would make it. Now I'm kinda leaning 60-40 it doesn't. However, if investors continue to provide capital Tesla could become profitable at some point. Likely not profitable enough, nor with growth strong enough, to support the current stock price, but profitable enough to stay in business. Some positive outcome would definitely help electrification. Tesla doesn't sell many cars, but it has demonstrated that you can sell electrics by stressing performance. It's great that Tesla is probably thought to produce more performance oriented cars than BMW.

The "cash incineration engine" phrase is funny.

TSLA delivered 230 M3's in 3Q. At $50k a unit that's $11.5 million in generated revenue in 3Q from the M3. Think about that for a second. This is a company that burned through a $ billion dollars in cash in the 2Q.

This is $1 Million vs $1 Billion in $100s

 

[DAC17]

Which is why I wanted the opinion of the person who actually dropped the money on it. TSLA has grown substantially this past year, but it's volatile beyond belief. It looks more like a day trader game to me, so I'm curious on how a put for Jan 19 is strategic timing.

Just curious......

The reason for it is that the payoff on the option occurs if the price plummets ANYTIME before January 2019; it doesn't have to be precisely that month. And, to make everyone feel better, I didn't buy a large stake. I just didn't understand the logic of a $60 billion market cap on a company that is likely not to make a dime until at least 2020. And don't tell me that Porsche, Benz, BMW, as well as GM, Toyota and Ford are standing still watching this...