[don shaw]

Here's a very interesting discussion from seeking alpha, discussing whether the Bolt will take sales away from the Model S. The tesla fanbois don't like the author, the logic presented, nor anything else. The article makes some sense to me, but i hope Bolt sales boom by inspiring new customers to go electric in addition to the lever of sales Tesla is making.
There are over 315,000 one way crossings across the George Washing Bridge daily, mostly commuters, and there seems to be basically millions of commuters who drive 35 to 60 miles each way daily in the NY, Nj Ct metro area (and major cities )who could use a Bolt (or model 3) with a 200 mile range as their (necessary) 2nd car and eliminate a great deal gas consumption.
Charging stations would never be needed for the commuter car, Practically all these commuters (must) have a 2nd car; (a majority with CUVS/ SUVS and full size sedans) which would be used for taking the family on long trips if they didn't fly., so a 200 mile BeV is ideal. Hope they can sell millions


http://seekingalpha.com/article/401...02e8a1f792b78f31d7a054fce2735b9&uprof=45#alt1

 

[Loboc]

M3 vs Bolt doesn't make any more sense than other SA articles about MS vs Bolt. They are vastly different markets even though Tesla claims to be in the lower end market with M3. They are not equal in any measure other than battery size.

A 'second car' becomes the primary car if driving the pickup on weekends only.

 

[Steverino]

If not, perhaps the better build quality and reliability of Chevy vs Tesla will matter.

 

[llninja]

Give me a BEV Impala with the range of a model S, sans ludicrous mode for $45k and I'm all in.
Give me the same BEV in a CT6 for $60k and I'm all in
Give me a suburban BEV and I'll happily spend $100k on the vehicle.

 

[BAZINGA]

A year from now we may have the answer to this question. Consumers will speak and vote with their wallets.

We are living in interesting times. Buckle up it's going to be a bumpy ride.

 

[Brjohnso]

Nobody is buying an electric vehicle to save MONEY on gas. It's nice that they do save gas, and many people take pride in saving gas, BUT it's not about the money saved by saving gas. EV purchasers are actually spending a considerable amount of extra money to drive an EV, and it is a purchase based mostly on status and a desired social image.

The Tesla is a perfect car for this market. It makes no compromises, and projects power and style. They fit right in with BMW's, Audi's and other luxury sedans. The people that buy them are buying a status symbol and making a statement. Neither the Bolt nor the Volt provide that. The Volt and the Bolt compete more on value, but they are still too expensive to attract ordinary buyers that crunch the numbers. Not nice enough to be a luxury status car, not cheap enough to be a good value. Hence the mediocre sales.

The Bolt will not impact Tesla S sales, however, the Model 3 will takes sales from the Bolt and the Volt because the Tesla will be seen as a luxury product at a Chevy price. If GM wants the Volt to go anywhere, they need to nock 10 grand off the price, but I don't think they will because they are milking the tax credit for all it's worth. They should open up the credit and make it a race, no allocation to each manufacturer. Make those crony capitalists compete.

 

[rhodomel]

I am predicting that the Chevy Bolt would be extremely more reliable than the Tesla Model 3. The fact that Tesla will be incorporating hardware for autonomous driving whether you will use it or not will complicate the production of the Tesla Model 3. The more components you have the more glitches there will be and thus the decreased reliability. The same hardware would be used by the Tesla Model 3 for the basic safety features offered by Chevy Bolt. And since the Tesla Model 3 will use far more sensors and complicated algorithms, it could be delayed in its delivery as they try to troubleshoot the various added components. The result, the Chevy Bolt will have far more proven reliability than the Tesla Model 3 if ever it comes out late.

Tesla's reliability is sunk while Chevy's reliability is up.

 

[Barry]

... it is a purchase based mostly on status and a desired social image. ...

I think that describes the Tesla market, but there is more to the EV market than that. If not, then there would not have been home-conversion EV projects and early conversions of Prius to plug in. I think there is a contingent of people who want EV for environmental or geo-political benefits or other reasons, and who are willing to spend around $30K which is comparable to other common cars that they might buy, such as a V-6 Accord. I don't think selling sub-luxury EVs has to be only about saving money on gas. At least not yet.

 

[Bacardi]

Actually fairly interesting article, will the Model S outsell the Bolt EV? By all signs the answer is yes, yet we have a ton of political issues which could result in increased gas prices...If that happens, $4/gal nationwide which is $5/gal in CA, where half EVs are sold, all EV sales will increase...I have zero doubts GM could produce more Bolt EVs than Tesla's yet question what amount of time of increased demand would it take in order for LG Chem/GM to decide to crank out 100K/year Bolt EVs?

I am predicting that the Chevy Bolt would be extremely more reliable than the Tesla Model 3. The fact that Tesla will be incorporating hardware for autonomous driving whether you will use it or not will complicate the production of the Tesla Model 3. The more components you have the more glitches there will be and thus the decreased reliability. The same hardware would be used by the Tesla Model 3 for the basic safety features offered by Chevy Bolt. And since the Tesla Model 3 will use far more sensors and complicated algorithms, it could be delayed in its delivery as they try to troubleshoot the various added components. The result, the Chevy Bolt will have far more proven reliability than the Tesla Model 3 if ever it comes out late.

Tesla's reliability is sunk while Chevy's reliability is up.

But despite Tesla's "sunk" reliability, it outsells all other EVs in which just about all cost half of a Tesla including GM's own Volt and Spark EV...The "unreliable" Model X even outsold the Volt + Spark last month...So does reliability matter to most? The Gen2 Volt isn't exactly perfect, "shift to park" & leaky oil pans being the worst (along with several other minor things) I would expect a few things with the Bolt EV as well, hopefully just minor things...

To the delays, Tesla is already equipping the hardware on new S/X's therefore it's already pretty well developed...IF Tesla was saying a brand spanking new AP system I could see your point but it's already working on the S/X, today...With all that being said, like anything else, words are very subjective including the word "delay"...Tesla states deliverieS (note it's plural) will happen in 2017...All they have to do is deliver two to Musk in 2017 and it's technically not delayed even if they don't deliver #3 until 2020...The real question in regards to delays is when will the pure base TM3 be delivered, I'd bet money that won't come in 2017 and wouldn't be shocked to hear zero deliveries in 2018 either...But the "delay" won't matter, most males would wait 2-3 years for a date with a Victoria Secret supermodel and feel the same way about owning a Tesla...

 

[4regt4]

Saving money was the ONLY reason I bought a Volt. Got it used for cheap, most of the warranty left (saves money on repairs), and my specific use case is giving a 10:1 cost benefit in fuel/electricity. I really don't give a rat's whatever if it burns gas, diesel, electricity, or dead liberals. The only thing I'm interested in saving is my wallet.

Hans.

 

[DonM]

There are a few people who are principled enough to just want to stop using gas. Also, there are people who like the driving characteristics of an EV, and are not so impressionable that they will chase status and image while paying more and waiting in line.

 

[Qinsp]

...

The Bolt will not impact Tesla S sales, however, the Model 3 will takes sales from the Bolt and the Volt because the Tesla will be seen as a luxury product at a Chevy price. If GM wants the Volt to go anywhere, they need to nock 10 grand off the price, but I don't think they will because they are milking the tax credit for all it's worth. They should open up the credit and make it a race, no allocation to each manufacturer. Make those crony capitalists compete.

Wow. How much is the real MSRP including destination (sometimes Tesla charges twice for destination) of the 2018 Tesla Model 3 base model?

And how much will the Model 3 be if you want a color other than black? All colors of Teslas are premium colors other than black, even white.

This you do not know. Nobody knows. Not even Elon Musk. Tesla has been wrong about pricing in the past, and delivery. There are still people waiting for their 5 seat Model X's. That's years of delay. Most gave up and paid for the 6 seat so they could get a car this decade.

Now, how much will the market price be on a 2018 Chevrolet Bolt, and what standard features will it have? This you do not know either, and? Neither does Chevrolet yet.

So if a 2018 Bolt with 250 miles of EPA range for a market price of $31,000 (the amount of discount I got on Volt 6 days ago) is sitting on a lot next October, and a Model 3 can be ordered with a tentative delivery of 3 months with 190 miles of EPA range for $44,000, do you think it will make any difference?

That is my guess based on the history of Chevrolet and the history of Tesla.

I will tell you that I will still probably buy the Model 3. But that's because I'm going to use it as an EV track car. The only thing that will stop me would be if it's slower than a Bolt, or if you can't turn off the babysitters. I don't buy fashion, I buy function.

 

[jsmay311]

perhaps the better build quality and reliability of Chevy vs Tesla will matter.

I am predicting that the Chevy Bolt would be extremely more reliable than the Tesla Model 3.

As someone considering a Model 3, this is my primary concern, especially with a new model in its first year of production. TBD.

 

[16513]

Don Shaw, you have succinctly stated the reasoning by G.M. for not offering to equip charging stations all over the place, not to mention that VW is already going to pay for a lot of them.
We have seen the real effect of cheap gas on EV/Volt sales, so saving money IS a purchase factor for many. It is after the purchase when the magic of electric propulsion becomes perhaps the biggest factor in buying a second EV/Volt. (that's me, no more ICE)

 

[Qinsp]

Don Shaw, you have succinctly stated the reasoning by G.M. for not offering to equip charging stations all over the place, not to mention that VW is already going to pay for a lot of them.
We have seen the real effect of cheap gas on EV/Volt sales, so saving money IS a purchase factor for many. It is after the purchase when the magic of electric propulsion becomes perhaps the biggest factor in buying a second EV/Volt. (that's me, no more ICE)

California is about to fund a ton of CCS/CHAdeMO sites. The contracts were just awarded.

 

[llninja]

Nobody is buying an electric vehicle to save MONEY on gas. It's nice that they do save gas, and many people take pride in saving gas, BUT it's not about the money saved by saving gas. EV purchasers are actually spending a considerable amount of extra money to drive an EV, and it is a purchase based mostly on status and a desired social image.
.

Not true. When I bought my volt, gas prices were $3.79 per gallon and my fuel costs for the Deville I was driving was about the same as the car payment. The heavily discounted volt hit a price point where it actually paid for itself. Alas, nobody could have predicted sub $2 gas prices at the time. Now my car payment is $0 per month as I saw the light, got convinced it was stupid to have money sitting in and investment account while paying interest on a car loan. So now my transportation costs are a small tankful or two a month instead of huge tankfuls every few days.

 

[llninja]

.

Now, how much will the market price be on a 2018 Chevrolet Bolt, and what standard features will it have? This you do not know either, and? Neither does Chevrolet yet.

So if a 2018 Bolt with 250 miles of EPA range for a market price of $31,000 (the amount of discount I got on Volt 6 days ago) is sitting on a lot next October, and a Model 3 can be ordered with a tentative delivery of 3 months with 190 miles of EPA range for $44,000, do you think it will make any difference?

That is my guess based on the history of Chevrolet and the history of Tesla.

I will tell you that I will still probably buy the Model 3. But that's because I'm going to use it as an EV track car. The only thing that will stop me would be if it's slower than a Bolt, or if you can't turn off the babysitters. I don't buy fashion, I buy function.

Why do you keep talking about the 2018 Bolt, when the 2017 Bolt is listed with here

http://www.chevrolet.com/bolt-ev-electric-vehicle.html

 

[Qinsp]

Why do you keep talking about the 2018 Bolt, when the 2017 Bolt is listed with here

http://www.chevrolet.com/bolt-ev-electric-vehicle.html

Because if the Tesla Model 3 arrives on schedule, it will be compared to the 2018 Bolt, which will also be late 2017.

If the Model 3 is late, it might be compared to 2019 Bolt.

GM will be selling a second Model Year car, not a first year in late 2017. It's very common for GM to make changes to the second year car. Sometimes small changes, sometimes big changes. Who knows?

 

[llninja]

Because if the Tesla Model 3 arrives on schedule, it will be compared to the 2018 Bolt, which will also be late 2017.

If the Model 3 is late, it might be compared to 2019 Bolt.

GM will be selling a second Model Year car, not a first year in late 2017. It's very common for GM to make changes to the second year car. Sometimes small changes, sometimes big changes. Who knows?

Well, it doesn't matter to me anyway. I cancelled my model 3 reservation and got my $1k back. When I realized that the model 3 was about the same size as the volt, it was the nail in the coffin. I might get a model S, but at this moment we are leaning towards a Suburban (or any Subyukonade variant) unless the CT6 PHEV becomes affordable (Like the heavily discounted ELR in 2015). Maybe something else will hit the EV scene to tickle our interest. The bolt and tm3 weren't enough for us to make the jump.

 

[Bacardi]

Life isn't black or white; no one can say EVERYONE/NO ONE is buying because of cost...Usually it's a combination of both cost and being to some degree of being green...Yet it's almost interesting in the delusional person, if you own a Volt, while you use MINIMAL gas you're not really "off gas"...If you own a Tesla but take your spouses ICE SUV on a 500 miles road trip are you off oil? If you fly are you "off oil"? If you order from amazon prime or get a pizza delivered vs picking up the items yourself in your EV, are you really "off oil"?

Now for those saying people only care about saving money and that's why they drive a Volt...If you live where you can have a Spark EV serviced that will save you more money, it's nearly free if you include gas savings and the insurance will be cheaper than even an used Volt...Same goes with a Nissan Versa, lowest priced mainstream car with super low insurance and great gas mileage...In a pure economics standpoint, those are two of the cheapest vehicles, new or used...