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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Does anyone want to guess what the Bolt's first month sales numbers will be?

Does it have a chance of beating the Prius Prime's first month sales record of 781 cars?
 

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I think it will blow Prius Prime out of the water.
No contest.

Heck, I think 500 Bolts have already been sold (on deposit) in the Bay Area of California alone.
 

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I think they have already produced all the Bolts that will arrive at dealerships before the end of the year. I'm guessing 1080 based upon an Ave run rate of 40 per day since the beginning of November. Read the other day from someone taking a tour of Orion that it looked like 1 out 3 coming off the line we're Bolts.
Really looking forward to hearing from real owners first impressions.
 

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842.

Beats Prius Prime's first month, but not by much. Second month will see a jump into Volt sales territory.
 

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First month being half of December? If wanting the first full month that is January which is usually a weak car sales month:

December ~1000 depending on production not demand. (1081 is my guess.)
January ~2500 if they can pump out that many. (2576 is my guess.)

The real numbers that count are after full production and full 50-State roll out. So maybe May? I'm guessing north of 5000 and GM will be scrambling to make more. 6-7k per month worldwide. Ampera-e could be huge.

Remember, my mailman in pickup country stopped to discuss EVs. Plus, Tesla has shown that there is high demand. I'm thinking it won't matter what Trump/EPA does near term. People want EVs.

Because of Prime and Bolt, I predict that Volt sales will hit new records. These cars validate Volt design.
 

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my guess is 1440 (Nov production of 9 per hour for 20 days - all shipped to arrive at dealers in time to be delivered in Dec
 

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Discussion Starter #10
Also, I think the Insideevs numbers track only U.S. sales, but still, I don't think GM will be shipping that many to Canada.
 

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Unless you are Tesla, sales mean fully paid and delivered cars (Tesla was giving discounts last quarter for people fully paying for but not yet receiving their car, as I understand it).

My point is Bolt EV might not get that many sales unless a fleet customer received a bunch as many of the current customers might not get them received this month.

Prius Prime, was that for a full month? Not really that impressive of a figure, but maybe being first month it is low, very supply limited at this point. I would expect it to sell better than Volt (if it doesn't I would see it as a failure in the Prius, it is a cheaper car that is meant to sell higher numbers)
 

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Discussion Starter #13
Insideevs mentioned the difficulty in tracking Tesla sales, but they owed it to how they had to average sales over quarters.

In regards to the Prius Prime, I'm not sure if that was a full month, but it qualified for Insideevs's monthly totals. Also, I'm not sure how much of a demand there will be for the Prius Prime. Sadly, Toyota is late to the party, and we have much, much better options to choose from. Personally, I don't think the Prius Prime will even outsell the Volt.
 

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First month being half of December? If wanting the first full month that is January which is usually a weak car sales month:

December ~1000 depending on production not demand. (1081 is my guess.)
January ~2500 if they can pump out that many. (2576 is my guess.)

The real numbers that count are after full production and full 50-State roll out. So maybe May? I'm guessing north of 5000 and GM will be scrambling to make more. 6-7k per month worldwide. Ampera-e could be huge.

Remember, my mailman in pickup country stopped to discuss EVs. Plus, Tesla has shown that there is high demand. I'm thinking it won't matter what Trump/EPA does near term. People want EVs.

Because of Prime and Bolt, I predict that Volt sales will hit new records. These cars validate Volt design.
Well, the Volt was doing about the best it had anyway. The best year was 2013 with 23,461 sales and it's been solidly around 2k per month.
_
I think the Prime is incredibly important because of its price and the heat pump, and I think that it will help Volt consideration, but the Bolt now means that Chevrolet would likely react to additional interest in the Volt by reducing incentives. With new vehicle sales falling, and the Bolt hitting the streets, Chevrolet won't want to use up the tax credits fast and won't need the Volt's ZEV credits as much.
 

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Unless you are Tesla, sales mean fully paid and delivered cars (Tesla was giving discounts last quarter for people fully paying for but not yet receiving their car, as I understand it).

My point is Bolt EV might not get that many sales unless a fleet customer received a bunch as many of the current customers might not get them received this month.

Prius Prime, was that for a full month? Not really that impressive of a figure, but maybe being first month it is low, very supply limited at this point. I would expect it to sell better than Volt (if it doesn't I would see it as a failure in the Prius, it is a cheaper car that is meant to sell higher numbers)
Prime was a partial month and inventory's really low. I also think that the Prime is going to sell like hot cakes (used to sell, when hot cakes sold fast), with a lot of cannibalization of the Prius HEV and it'll be really good for plug-in sales overall.
 

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Unless you are Tesla, sales mean fully paid and delivered cars
You answered my question before I asked it :)
I suspect actual sales are much higher. But they're all going to lag by several weeks build and delivery time.
Actual delivered, I'd guess 1000 or so.

Insideevs mentioned the difficulty in tracking Tesla sales, but they owed it to how they had to average sales over quarters.

In regards to the Prius Prime, I'm not sure if that was a full month, but it qualified for Insideevs's monthly totals. Also, I'm not sure how much of a demand there will be for the Prius Prime. Sadly, Toyota is late to the party, and we have much, much better options to choose from. Personally, I don't think the Prius Prime will even outsell the Volt.
You seriously underestimate the number of Toyota fanboys. Whether it's technologically inferior or not, all that matters is the badge on it. There is a very large group of buyers out there that will never know just how good the volt or bolt are, solely because it has a bowtie on it.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
You seriously underestimate the number of Toyota fanboys. Whether it's technologically inferior or not, all that matters is the badge on it. There is a very large group of buyers out there that will never know just how good the volt or bolt are, solely because it has a bowtie on it.
I'm solely basing my opinion on the sales numbers for the Prius Plug-In, which averaged about 1,000 per month.
 

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I'm solely basing my opinion on the sales numbers for the Prius Plug-In, which averaged about 1,000 per month.
Even die-hard Prius fans questioned the utility of the old PIP. It was pretty much useless as a plug-in, except great for Californians to get HOV access and drive it like a normal prius (where they sold the most, by far).
This one offers a step up in EV ability that will likely sway regular prius buyers in its direction - I would expect far more sales than the outgoing model once full availability is in place (stock across country, not a potentially-constrained initial partial month)
In about 6 months when Bolt, Volt, and Prime are fully stocked everywhere we'll actually see which is more popular.
I expect it will remain Prius because of brand recognition, brand loyalty, and slightly lower price.
 

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I'm solely basing my opinion on the sales numbers for the Prius Plug-In, which averaged about 1,000 per month.
Maybe your math is wrong. According to the table, the Pip sold ZERO in two months. Were you just adding up the entire year?
 
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