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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Re: Best analysis of Model 3 to date (German) - per Elon M tweet so that would lead one to believe it is reasonably accurate.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1002270980755013632

https://translate.google.com/transl...inn-abwerfen/22625806.html&edit-text=&act=url

ELECTRIC CAR DISASSEMBLED Tesla Model 3 can throw off profits

EXCLUSIVE
by Stefan Hajek
May 31, 2018
It is the big question in Tesla's hopes: Can the Californians build Model 3 profitably? A German engineering service provider has disassembled a Model 3 and comes to a clear conclusion in the analysis.

Tesla's Model 3 can make a profit. This is the result of a German engineering service provider, who has a Model 3 decomposed to the last screw . The material and delivery costs of the $ 35,000- $ 78,000 car are only around $ 18,000; In addition, according to the calculations of the burglars, who are the WirtschaftsWoche, about $ 10,000 in production costs per car. "If Tesla manages to build the planned 10,000 pieces a week, the Model 3 will deliver a significant positive contribution to earnings," says a test engineer.

The WirtschaftsWoche are minutes of some engineering service providers who have worried and dismantled a Tesla Model 3 from the USA on behalf of German auto companies on the gray market. The sellers are ex-Tesla employees who were able to order a Model 3 early and now sell it at a high profit. The prices on the gray market are at 100,000 to 130,000 dollars.

A total of four Tesla Model 3 have been transferred to information from the WirtschaftsWoche in recent weeks to Germany and disassembled here in the works of competitors. The German Tesla competitors did not just want to investigate some hitherto unclear technical solutions of the expected first over 500,000 pre-orders electric cars for the mass market on the object; they were also interested in revealing its economic calculations.

Another result of the analyzes: Tesla has achieved a breakthrough with scarce battery raw materials. Tesla has obviously succeeded in significantly reducing the share of the notoriously scarce metal cobalt in the batteries of his new Model 3. This is the result of laboratory analyzes exclusively available to WirtschaftsWoche. Cobalt is needed in the cathode of lithium-ion cells; It is considered irreplaceable there. More than 60 percent of the global cobalt deposits are in the civil-war-torn Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the cobalt is partly funded by child labor and used to finance warlords.

In the world market, the price of cobalt last tripled within 18 months. Due to the flood of new e-models of numerous car companies, which should come on the market from 2020, the demand for the scarce metal will multiply again. Individual corporations like VW had recently tried to conclude direct delivery contracts with mine operators, but without success.

Battery manufacturers and their suppliers are therefore working hard to develop new cathode materials that use less cobalt. Tesla and his partner Panasonic appear to be ahead of the competition, as previously known: According to the laboratory analyzes leaked to WirtschaftsWoche, the cathodes of the Panasonic cells used in the new Tesla Model 3 consist of only 2.8 percent cobalt. The current state of the art is currently eight percent cobalt. "That would be a significant competitive advantage for Tesla, Kobalt is currently very difficult to get on the world market," says Sven Bauer, head of Germany's largest independent battery producer BMZ.
 

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I suspect that the unit cost of a delivered M3 is well above the estimated $28,000. No wonder Musk thinks this is a good analysis. Such estimates help him to raise needed cash.

KNS
 

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Discussion Starter #3 (Edited)
I suspect that the unit cost of a delivered M3 is well above the estimated $28,000. No wonder Musk thinks this is a good analysis. Such estimates help him to raise needed cash. KNS
Yea, what do those German engineering service providers tearing them down know that an internet forum poster wouldn't off the top of their head and gut feel/remarks. :)

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And then there was this from today

 

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Yea, what do those German engineering service providers tearing them down know that an internet forum poster wouldn't off the top of their head and gut feel/remarks. :)
Actually I suspect this particular "Internet forum poster" is simply noting that this analysis is at odds with all the other tear downs and cost estimates. IOW it's an outlier. And of course he's dead accurate about the need to convince WS that Tesla can in fact turn a profit. Plus, given Musk's long history of misleading statements and hot air, needed to keep the stock price lifted, I think the poster has more credibility.

Also note this is from the guy who last week explained that Tesla couldn't sell the Model 3 for $35K because at that price Tesla would lose so much money it "would die". Which is it? Plus you have to wonder why a CEO would be wasting time with third party estimates of his company's costs. Shouldn't he know the costs?
 

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Discussion Starter #5 (Edited)
Actually I suspect this particular "Internet forum poster" is simply noting that this analysis is at odds with all the other tear downs and cost estimates. IOW it's an outlier. And of course he's dead accurate about the need to convince WS that Tesla can in fact turn a profit. Plus, given Musk's long history of misleading statements and hot air, needed to keep the stock price lifted, I think the poster has more credibility.

Also note this is from the guy who last week explained that Tesla couldn't sell the Model 3 for $35K because at that price Tesla would lose so much money it "would die". Which is it? Plus you have to wonder why a CEO would be wasting time with third party estimates of his company's costs. Shouldn't he know the costs?
a) you are only taking part of the formula in your constantly snide comments and left out things like gaining efficiencies and production tools/methods that raise the production rate to levels that allow this. These are just a few more variables in the formula. I'm surprised you would try that subtle misleading ... Tesla is one of the most shorted stocks tho so maybe that some angles ('short' lens) on this vicious forum. Haha, I jest. See the articles and tweets about weekly/monthly production volume levels before X, Y, and Z can take place.

b) obviously he cannot directly state things as there are regulations and laws against what executives can make public outside of official forums. He does point out generalizations/indirection that people draw a conclusion from.

New month starts tomorrow so new sales figures ... of course they are just estimates for Tesla until the end of the quarter ... oh wait and now GMs are too ;) Lot of directing of TM3s to Canada it seems. I think GMs method of slowly getting to 200K is just to limit advertising, production, and, of course, then sales which is another interesting technique. ;)
 

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Can somebody tell what they think that nVidia DRIVE PX card costs just for the card itself?

It sort of sucks they put in one that's too small and too expensive, but c'est la vie.

It's cool that Tesla has gotten Panasonic to give them batteries for free. Never knew Panasonic was a non-profit too.
 

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... nVidia DRIVE PX card ...
It sort of sucks they put in one that's too small and too expensive, but c'est la vie.
...
So you do realize there have been multiple sources about it being upgradable as necessary right. Various quotes from Tesla as well. Part of the new design and them moving to a dedicated unit/board near the glovebox.

Several great TMC post and some articles about people taking them out and documenting their components and connections.

I need to look at your constantly snide comments as well with the 'short' viewing lens :) I jest, sort of.

 

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Yea, what do those German engineering service providers tearing them down know that an internet forum poster wouldn't off the top of their head and gut feel/remarks. :)


Why so defensive? This particular IFP is an experienced engineer with no axe to grind. The $28K estimate delivered might eventually be reached. Assuming minimal rework, minimal warranty claims, etc. And I saw no mention of the capital costs of plant and equipment which the company hopes will eventually be spread across a large number of units. In the meantime, the company needs to reduce the red ink and maybe even hire a COO to help realize the vision.

KNS
 

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I just stopped and thought about all the s*@t I would have to have under control in order to mass produce an automobile, and the headaches and stomach-wrenching problems to solve along the way and decided to take my hat off to Elon for his achievements. He’s a better man than I. Anyone willing to put himself or herself through all that deserves to succeed. I wish him and his company success.
 
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There's a lot more to building a car than just paying for the nuts and bolts to build it. I liken the Tesla to Apple and their Applites. Nothing is perfect. An example is the YouTube video by the Straight Eight guys that compare the "carplay" feature with an Apple iPhone and an Android one hooking up to use the navigation. The Apple one didn't work worth a darn until they upgraded the iOS (second video) but at the end the text over was the iPone was now running slow with the upgrade. Very funny video, worth the YouTube search to watch. I hope Tesla continues as competition improves the breed across the board.
 

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There's a lot more to building a car than just paying for the nuts and bolts to build it. I liken the Tesla to Apple and their Applites. Nothing is perfect. An example is the YouTube video by the Straight Eight guys that compare the "carplay" feature with an Apple iPhone and an Android one hooking up to use the navigation. The Apple one didn't work worth a darn until they upgraded the iOS (second video) but at the end the text over was the iPone was now running slow with the upgrade. Very funny video, worth the YouTube search to watch. I hope Tesla continues as competition improves the breed across the board.
I searched for the video you mention but can't find it on Youtube. Care to share a link perhaps?
 

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It's Straight Pipes Guys.

 

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It's Straight Pipes Guys.
Funny video ;).

$18K Pricing for materials sounds a bit low.
~$10k for LR battery assembly with charge controller.
At least $3.5k for main motor + motor drive electronics.
~$500 for variable speed AC compressor with electronics.
Guessing ~$1K for NVIDIA card - those tings are not cheap. I am assuming all cars have NVIDIA card in them, even those without EAP.

I am at $15k without touching frame, brakes, body panels, interior, electronics, etc.

$20-$21K for materials would make more sense for LR.

Unicorn like SR M3 materials will be ~$18k.
 
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