Article: Automakers Plan Electric Car Blitz as Tesla Burns Billions
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More choices coming, all chasing a small number of buyers. Chicken or egg, will more people buy more EV's if there are more models to choose from? Or, will sales just ve diluted?
The best solution to get people into an EV without range anxiety is the Voltec extended range EV.
The article points out that China has more or less adopted CARB's approach to emissions. Since CARB is driving the US market, and some European states are talking about banning ICE vehicles, the writing is on the wall for automakers. The EPA's vow to roll back emissions seems more a hopeless cause every day.
Personally I'd prefer a more balanced approach, with more natural gas, especially for larger vehicles. However, the automaker's wrong headed attempt to roll back CAFE has more or less precluded that.
Personally I'd prefer a more balanced approach, with more natural gas, especially for larger vehicles. However, the automaker's wrong headed attempt to roll back CAFE has more or less precluded that.
For those with two cars, an electric with 200+ miles of range and a Voltec based vehicle would essentially solve the problem. It might not satisfy the religious based crowd which opposes any ICE on grounds this is the devil, but it would solve the economic, health, pollution and emissions problems.
I think some models have been chasing the small market buyers like Nissan Leaf, Chevy Bolt, etc, but Tesla is poised to make up half the market, much of that new. I really think we are seeing the beginning of the shift. I imagine there will be an explosion in charging stations and infrastructure as well, but other makes besides Tesla will limit their own growth if they don't help along the charging situation in a hurry. I want a Bolt EV, but a Tesla Model 3 would mean I could drive it a lot more places.
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I think it's all about the battery, that charging networks are secondary. If it becomes possible to build and EV with 400 miles of range at a reasonable price you will only need high speed charging on Interstates. EVs always leave home with their full range available so as long as your maximum trip is less than your range you don't need to charge. The maximum that anyone can do in a day, except on an Interstate, is 400 miles, I speak from experience because I take long day trips every Saturday in the summer and the longest that I've done is 385 miles and that involved leaving in the morning and coming home late at night. On all of my trips in the Volt I've never needed to stop at a gas station, we stop at Duncan Donuts to pee now, because it's range is about 460 miles. Installing the EVSE at home was relatively cheap, $1K, so compared to the cost of a new car it's a trivial addition. Assuming that long range EVs can get down to a competitive price they will take over because they are so much better than ICE cars in every important respect aside from range and price. If battery technology stalls out at it's current level then EVs will remain niche cars, but if it does improve as much as we all expect then ICE cars will mostly disappear.
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For me, six years of driving the Volt showed me 1) how quiet and high torque gas-free driving can be 2) how the need to plugin daily is really a non-issue and is actually more convenient than gassing up 3) how much I actually drive day to day and the range I'd need from an EV to go gas-free 4) that I did not need to worry about battery range or charging opportunities for very long trips.
In short, the Volt-type solution is the perfect gateway EV, all the pluses, none of the minuses.
So having a Volt enabled me to confidently go all electric with our second car, a Bolt EV. With the Bolt's battery size, we have no range anxiety. Going forward, we will basically be gas-free except for the rare very long road trip.
The Bolt replaces the Cadillac SRX we had as a "bridge" car between an end-of-life Volvo and the Bolt. Soon, I too will be able to enjoy EMM (engine maintenance mode) on the Volt, something we never experienced before since we used some gas every day with our 40-48 mile range limit. I won't complain about EMM as some do as it's a sign I no longer use gas on a regular basis.
My daughter in LA has a parking spot, but no charge opportunity. So even though her commute and driving range would be ideal for a Volt Gen 1 or Gen 2, she bought a traditional ICE. The lack of ubiquitous charging infrastructure is where I see the bigger issue for large metro area (or states) that want to ban ICE's. Even if you wanted an EV, if you can't charge it where you park, you aren't buying one.
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Tesla has about 10% of worldwide unit sales of plug-in vehicles. A few years ago it had about 10% of worldwide unit sales of plug-in vehicles. I'm going to predict that in a few years it will have about 10% of worldwide unit sales of plug-in vehicles.
The whole market has been growing rapidly. Tesla has grown along with it.
The whole market has been growing rapidly. Tesla has grown along with it.
This is the key issue until something drastic changes with charging technology. A huge chunk of US households are multifamily dwellings, and the number is growing. These people can't charge overnight. The general charging needs are in the process of being met (e.g. VW, and power companies), but until people in multifamily housing can easily charge at home, the market will remain constrained.
The "whole market" is still tiny, and so Tesla has had no problem keeping up. I believe that once the major manufacturers start selling multiple EV models, Tesla's share is likely to shrink.
I would have to agree with those that say it is all about the convenience of fast charging and available networks. I would have already purchased a pure EV if not for the fact that finding charging spots on our vacation trips is just not there yet. The Volt makes it possible for us to take the occasional longer trip, but I would sure rather be doing it without burning gas. Tesla is really the only game in town at this point that could meet our travel needs.
The best part about the Volt is driving when you are in electric mode only...so quiet and smooth and responsive. It is just so superior to driving an ICE. I can't wait to make the switch to pure BEV.
The best part about the Volt is driving when you are in electric mode only...so quiet and smooth and responsive. It is just so superior to driving an ICE. I can't wait to make the switch to pure BEV.
Going forward more automakers will follow Volvo's announcement that they will offer only hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs. Sort of like when carmakers offered the same model with either a 4-cylinder engine, a V-6 engine or a V-8 engine. Consumers may still want a four door sedan, an CUV/SUV or a pickup or a minivan but they will be able to choose an electrified power train that meets their need and situation.
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Imagine parking/charging meters everywhere. That's what will be needed. Unfortunately, the cost to charge at those will likely be higher (much higher?) than a 240V EVSE in the garage. In Chicago, some of those meters are $4/hour just to occupy the spot. Now add charging cost. And do you install cheap 120V charging or expensive 240V? Since most cars are parked at least 8 hours a day, cheap 120V would be sufficient for most, but you'd also need some L2 options available.
With current technology and into the foreseeable future, a 400 HIGHWAY mile battery would be both massive and expensive. It would also make the car very inefficient mpg(e)-wise carrying around all the mostly unnecessary weight every day that's only needed a few times/yr.
And if the cost to charge remains high, then a lot of those multifamily dwellers (many of whom are at the lower end of the income spectrum) will be unable to adopt EV driving.
I think a lot of us are in this same boat.
This thought brings up an interesting concept. Maybe an EV could be fitted with a smaller battery with the capability to hook on a larger one if/when necessary. Maybe before you go on your trip you stop at the dealer and "rent" a higher capacity battery.
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Before I call bullsh*t on this claim, can anyone name these 50 models? 40? 30? How about 25?Bloomberg said:
2022 is 5 years away. I wouldn't be surprised if the number is higher. The major manufacturers are gearing up to drop an EV motor in just about any model they sell -- and why not. If you want an EV, why should you be constrained to a Tesla or an econo-box? You should be able to choose any model on the lot, and chose the EV option rather than the V8.
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