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Discussion Starter #1
Analyst slashes Tesla Model 3 fourth quarter forecast by nearly 70%

I'm not sure if this is news to anyone patiently waiting for their model 3. Perhaps guidance for the investor.

KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated its sector weight rating for Tesla shares, predicting the electric car maker will report weaker-than-expected financial results for its Model 3.

"We estimate Tesla will announce delivery of [about 5,000] Model 3s in 4Q sometime early next week, below the sell-side estimate but likely acceptable for the buyside," analyst Brad Erickson wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. "While it is likely to be a few quarters before the Company's true Model 3 gross margin judgment day arrives … we think the Model 3 margin ramp will disappoint and investors will have to acknowledge no [Model] S/X growth at some point, which is not reflected in the shares."
 

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This is basically BS.
EM already guided for more like 5K model 3's in the 4th quarter. The 15 K suggestion was a long time before that.
Very sloppy work on the part of the analyst as noted by a lot of people on TMC.

Obviously you don't pay very close attention to the news about Tesla production guidance.
 

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Discussion Starter #3 (Edited)
Obviously you don't pay very close attention to the news about Tesla production guidance.
No I don't. It's a story panning across the business channels right now, else I wouldn't have bothered looking it up.

However a citation to back your claim doesn't pop up either. Guidance seems to be more centered around mid-2018. As of Nov. 1 the news was:

Musk said in the results letter that Tesla will update its production goals for Model 3 when it releases year-end results.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2017/11/01/tesla-pins-model-3-production-snag-on-battery-packs-as-quarterly-loss-widens/#433563d05488
 

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Ha ha. This just seems silly to me. I don't get it. Didn't Tesla just announce the first delivery last week? How many can you expect to be delivered in just a few days during the holiday season. Guiding down to 5000? I'm be surprised if it was 500. Or is this all models?

My yardstick is really the EM distraction meter. When financial results are going to suck, EM comes up with a new announcement aka distraction. This quarter he had two -- the semi and the roadster -- which I interpret as a indicator of a mind bendingly horrible quarter. :D:D:D After that I stopped paying attention (not that I did before).

I just hope that the cars get delivered to those waiting for them and that the quality is there.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Ha ha. This just seems silly to me. I don't get it. Didn't Tesla just announce the first delivery last week? How many can you expect to be delivered in just a few days during the holiday season. Guiding down to 5000? I'm be surprised if it was 500. Or is this all models?

My yardstick is really the EM distraction meter. When financial results are going to suck, EM comes up with a new announcement aka distraction. This quarter he had two -- the semi and the roadster -- which I interpret as a indicator of a mind bendingly horrible quarter. :D:D:D After that I stopped paying attention (not that I did before).

I just hope that the cars get delivered to those waiting for them and that the quality is there.
From the Forbes article:

“Based on what we know now, we currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, recognizing that our production growth rate is like a stepped exponential, so there can be large forward jumps from one week to the next.
5000 by Sunday? Better be a good week! No, I don't believe it either nor do I believe the 5000 a week number in Q1. But that's my opinion and I thought I'd start with the opinion of someone who might have taken a closer look than I do. For the sake of the employees I hope they can. For the sake of a cult stock and a company with a perverted market cap I could not care less.

And I surely don't get my news from the cult (except that the business channels can be cultish sometimes), so the burden of that citation will have to rest with the claimant.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
Speaking of recent news, yesterday was about how TSLA dropped a day after Musk announced they will build a pickup to rival the F150, right after they start making the model Y, which I haven't even seen any car porn of yet (Blue must have been off his game if it exists). The talking heads were scratching their collective noggins.

I'm sitting there thinking "Wait a minute here. They're going to build a roadster (good plan since it's returning to their core competency), a semi, and now 2 more models? Where will they find the capex for all of this, much less another NUMMI plant to move into?"

Seems like quite a stretch. :rolleyes:
 

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I'm sitting there thinking "Wait a minute here. They're going to build a roadster (good plan since it's returning to their core competency), a semi, and now 2 more models? Where will they find the capex for all of this, much less another NUMMI plant to move into?"

Seems like quite a stretch. :rolleyes:
I don't see the roadster as their core competency, they didn't sell many of those, but it was a revenue builder to get lines going for Model S. Model S drives the revenue for Model 3. Model 3 will drive revenue for Model Y. Semi is probably somewhat independent and will likely help pickup sales. I would expect to see new factories soon if they want to increase production of Model 3 beyond 5k per week and Model Y.

I see Tesla's core competency as getting done whatever they set their sights on.
 

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....I see Tesla's core competency as getting done whatever they set their sights on.
But, but,, doesn't a business have to set their sights on turning a profit eventually?
Maybe I don't see the Big Picture, like the fanbois do....
 

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Discussion Starter #9
I don't see the roadster as their core competency, they didn't sell many of those,
Building cars for an elite market is their core competency. Building cars for the everyman isn't. The higher end the better.

but it was a revenue builder to get lines going for Model S. Model S drives the revenue for Model 3. Model 3 will drive revenue for Model Y. Semi is probably somewhat independent and will likely help pickup sales.
That's a theory that doesn't stand up to history. You're leaving out several rounds of equity sales. The margins on S and so forth may have kept the lights on, but it hardly paid for the capex to engineer, tool and purchase parts for the next model.

There may be other flaws in what you said there (semis especially) but I've gone through them more than once so....

I would expect to see new factories soon if they want to increase production of Model 3 beyond 5k per week and Model Y.
Mmm hmm. No more room at Fremont. As it is they can't paint 500K cars a year at Fremont due to legal restrictions on air pollution.

But, but,, doesn't a business have to set their sights on turning a profit eventually?
A novel idea that is.
 

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This whole thread reads as a one-finger salute to Bluesideup now that he has been silenced.

On any given day there are more negative than positive articles about Tesla in the business news.
Its easy to make that case on balance sheet considerations, but if one looks to future possibilities one's view can be different.

This one analyst had a projection of 15k cars in Q4 2017 that he had held way past the time it was apparent that would not be the case. Then he drops his reevaluation late in the quarter. BFD. Then everyone jumps in and quotes him.

For anyone paying attention on TMC, M3O, etc. Its clear that they have made a lot more than 500 cars and probably fewer than 5K.
They are delivering VINs into the high 2XXX range and assigning VINs to buyers into the 3XXX range. And they have just registered VINS into the 8XXX range.

Say what you will about their past timelines but they have always finally delivered vehicles that were compelling autos regardless of propulsion, not just niche vehicles like Volt and Bolt for example.

The initial reviews of the 3 are great and they are clearly ramping up production.

As far as their future products, they too are extremely compelling in their segments as attested to by the semi reservations from major businesses at 25K a reservation 2 y in advance. And the roadster blows all the competition away in acceleration at a bargain price. And that 600 miles range should make it good for 100 miles or more on a track if they can get the cooling under control.

I don't get the hatred for Tesla here. Skepticism is one thing, but excoriating Bluesideup for always posting positive news about Tesla on the Tesla sub-forum while you use it to attack Tesla with negative news is beyond hypocritical.

I'm on my second Volt and enjoy the car. I come here for info about the Volt and other GM doings with electricity. None of us need rabid hatred for a ground-breaking company that is pushing the entire auto industry into electrification.
 

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Discussion Starter #11 (Edited)
On any given day there are more negative than positive articles about Tesla in the business news.
Since I have the business news on in my office all day, every day I can give testimony against this. It's almost always a regurgitation of Tesla PR. The rare day has a story such as the one I posted.

Its easy to make that case on balance sheet considerations, but if one looks to future possibilities one's view can be different.
Balance sheets matter once you have an IPO. Even more each time you dump equity or sell debt. For the first time EVER, this year Tesla has put themselves in a position where they HAVE TO pay out dividends on the junk rated bonds they just sold, or default on them.

None of us need rabid hatred for a ground-breaking company that is pushing the entire auto industry into electrification.
There it is again - the singular attribution to the icon. GM or any other car maker have had nothing to do with an electrification "push", right?

Just so we're clear, where is the line between skepticism and rabid hatred? Personally I don't hate or love Tesla. They exist or they don't and I don't see it making more than a blip on the timeline of future of EVs. You're free to mischaracterize us here as Blue was.

If the media spin on electrification really concerns you, think about how this is going to go down if Tesla implodes financially, which they seem hell-bent on doing:

"Tesla bankruptcy proves that electric vehicles are unprofitable"
 

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I'm more or less speechless at your response. I'm characterizing you based on this thread, the ones from Blue, and my past impressions when I was here more.

So GM is going to push electrification of cars by making niche vehicles, with no support for charging infrastructure and fighting against fuel economy standards. I respect GM engineering, but the big corporate decisions are often pretty messed up. And they have already gone bankrupt once so they may do so again.

I suggest you get rid of the Tesla subforum as it seems too controversial.

And your motivation is really that you don't want to see Tesla go bankrupt?
 

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This whole thread reads as a one-finger salute to Bluesideup now that he has been silenced.

On any given day there are more negative than positive articles about Tesla in the business news.
Its easy to make that case on balance sheet considerations, but if one looks to future possibilities one's view can be different.

This one analyst had a projection of 15k cars in Q4 2017 that he had held way past the time it was apparent that would not be the case. Then he drops his reevaluation late in the quarter. BFD. Then everyone jumps in and quotes him.

For anyone paying attention on TMC, M3O, etc. Its clear that they have made a lot more than 500 cars and probably fewer than 5K.
They are delivering VINs into the high 2XXX range and assigning VINs to buyers into the 3XXX range. And they have just registered VINS into the 8XXX range.


Say what you will about their past timelines but they have always finally delivered vehicles that were compelling autos regardless of propulsion, not just niche vehicles like Volt and Bolt for example.

The initial reviews of the 3 are great and they are clearly ramping up production.

As far as their future products, they too are extremely compelling in their segments as attested to by the semi reservations from major businesses at 25K a reservation 2 y in advance. And the roadster blows all the competition away in acceleration at a bargain price. And that 600 miles range should make it good for 100 miles or more on a track if they can get the cooling under control.

I don't get the hatred for Tesla here. Skepticism is one thing, but excoriating Bluesideup for always posting positive news about Tesla on the Tesla sub-forum while you use it to attack Tesla with negative news is beyond hypocritical.

I'm on my second Volt and enjoy the car. I come here for info about the Volt and other GM doings with electricity. None of us need rabid hatred for a ground-breaking company that is pushing the entire auto industry into electrification.
And anyone who really pays attention to Tesla knows they have registered VIN #s OUT OF SEQUENCE since the Model S!!!...:rolleyes:
 

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Discussion Starter #14 (Edited)
I'm more or less speechless at your response. I'm characterizing you based on this thread, the ones from Blue, and my past impressions when I was here more.
Well I really don't care what anyone thinks. When that happens I'll be just as vulnerable to group think as anyone else. But I will push back, because no ad hominem (such as you chose to post up front as Blue does) should go unanswered.

Speechless? You stepped up pretty quickly in Blue's wake there.

So GM is going to push electrification of cars by making niche vehicles, with no support for charging infrastructure and fighting against fuel economy standards. I respect GM engineering, but the big corporate decisions are often pretty messed up. And they have already gone bankrupt once so they may do so again.
G.M. and Ford Lay Out Plans to Expand Electric Models
VW to Build Electric Versions of All 300 Models by 2030

Just a couple to get you started and help inform your communication going forward. The stories pile up every month, from all sorts of car makers. Many already have models in production.

P.S. I see your rabid GM hatred there. Oh my! I hope I wasn't mischaracterizing your remarks. :rolleyes:

I suggest you get rid of the Tesla subforum as it seems too controversial.
It's not. The problem is that any skepticism is seen as "rabid hatred" by the cult. And so it has gone once again here.

FYI Blue earned the one finger salute and that happened in a different thread. Bro has earned similar from me and I've given it. I'm okay with forgiving though since we all grow up eventually, or die trying.

This was supposed to be about model 3 production forecasts, and you've helped derail that subject now. Good job! If it seems like I'm dissing you, well......

And your motivation is really that you don't want to see Tesla go bankrupt?
You seem skeptical!

For the sake of the employees at Fremont I do not want to see that. Fremont was decimated when NUMMI closed. For the sake of Elon Musk I don't care. I think someone else should take the driver's seat and run it like a responsible executive, not an overgrown spoiled brat. Go ahead - ask me why I call him that.

Maybe Straubel can do it, maybe someone else. In 2013 Larry Page was considering it, but Musk insisted Page keep him in the driver's seat. Page apparently didn't care for that idea.

I think maybe telling the truth about things might be a good start really. I mean, other than after the fact. The SEC really prefers that publicly traded corporations do that.

And anyone who really pays attention to Tesla knows they have registered VIN #s OUT OF SEQUENCE since the Model S!!!...:rolleyes:
Oh dang, well there goes reality out the window again.

Just for the record, DonC and I have had some spectacular discussions (arguments if it pleases you) but it's never gone ad hominem. Sometimes I think he's ignorant and sometimes he thinks I am and most often both (no one is always right). But it's never been mean spirited. I don't recall ever feeling like he was talking down at me. Called my thinking nutty - yeah. But he didn't say I was a nut. There's a distinct difference.

Obviously you don't pay very close attention to the news about Tesla production guidance.
That's definitively talking down to someone. Blue did a lot of this, but don't take my word for it - go investigate for yourself.
 

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Kudos to you for giving Bro the one finger salute. I missed that. And I apparently missed the response by Blue that earned it as well.
What happens if one is no longer around all the time.

I'm perfectly aware that all these other mfrs are announcing cars without any charging infrastructure. When I actually see compelling vehicles, not niche vehicles I'll believe it. My skepticism! In the interim they are fighting against it, except for the Fed EV credit, which I'll probably get on a model 3, thanks to their lobbying for it.

None of us want to see Tesla go bankrupt for a lot of reasons including the employees. So this comes down to your dislike of Musk and his style. Irritating at times it may be but it lets Tesla essentially do without marketing expenses. And take all sorts of risks making compelling vehicles instead of groupthink products. Given your feelings about groupthink, I'd expect you to celebrate a crazy individual like Musk. And I predict that the next time there is a big recession GM will probably go bankrupt again.

Well, no, Tesla doesn't register VINS out of sequence. As I understand it that can't be done or at least isn't being done with the 3.
They do however build the cars out of the VIN sequence to obscure production numbers. But they have been going through numbers pretty quickly lately so its a safe bet along with other observations, such as people watching Fremont, that they are getting them in blocks to support pending production. Also at least one supplier has indicated that they have been told to provide parts in much larger quantities in Jan.

I'm not sure that I've entirely derailed the thread. I think I've commented on production numbers in one way or another in all of my posts.

And I've owned more GM made vehicles than any other brand in my 75 years so I'm well qualified to hate them if I did, but actually I'm sad that they have been run so badly at the corporate level for so long. And don't get me started on the mid-engine corvette. Actually I'd feel much better about them if I could have gotten electric seats and driver profiles on my 2 driver Volt.
 

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Discussion Starter #16 (Edited)
Kudos to you for giving Bro the one finger salute. I missed that. And I apparently missed the response by Blue that earned it as well.
You missed quite a bit then.

What happens if one is no longer around all the time.
You mean can Bro keep pelting this forum with anti-Tesla stuff every other day? Sure, if he wants to get punted too. I think it's tapered off quite a bit. Both members and mods have dinged him for it. My one finger salute was in another area, and was related to some internet fame he acquired by being extremely rude to a new Bolt owner. I posted the article, somewhere.

Blue had an opportunity as Bro did to lay off. Blue took that and went in the face of the mods by doubling down and dissing the mods directly while continuing his spam campaign. What would you have done?

I'm perfectly aware that all these other mfrs are announcing cars without any charging infrastructure. When I actually see compelling vehicles, not niche vehicles I'll believe it.
All EVs are niche vehicles right now. Charging infrastructure is a different discussion. IMO GM usually knows when to let the aftermarket do its thing and when not to. I'd be more concerned about GM letting LG build too much of the Bolt. That too is a different discussion.

None of us want to see Tesla go bankrupt for a lot of reasons including the employees.
We can agree on that I think.

So this comes down to your dislike of Musk and his style.
Not really. I usually focus more on financials, mainly because he doesn't. What I think of Musk doesn't amount to a hill of beans. I don't hate the man, more like feel sorry for him. But he does a lot of unnecessary damage to those around him. You'd be angry too if it happened to you and for that you would have my empathy.

I see his face way too often and that's not a good thing. Ask NASCAR champ Jeff Gordon how being over-exposed can be harmful. To this day some people hate him, and for no good reason.

Irritating at times it may be but it lets Tesla essentially do without marketing expenses. And take all sorts of risks making compelling vehicles instead of groupthink products. Given your feelings about groupthink, I'd expect you to celebrate a crazy individual like Musk. And I predict that the next time there is a big recession GM will probably go bankrupt again.
Nice try, but Tesla makes sedans - the ultimate groupthink vehicle. If you read everything you know that I think the roadster is the right thing for them. Perfect even.

I'm not sure that I've entirely derailed the thread.
Whatever.

I think I've commented on production numbers in one way or another in all of my posts.
And then some. Disagreeing on production forecasts is fine. Ad hominem remarks, not so much and characterizing rabid hate, well.....

And I've owned more GM made vehicles than any other brand in my 75 years so I'm well qualified to hate them if I did, but actually I'm sad that they have been run so badly at the corporate level for so long. And don't get me started on the mid-engine corvette. Actually I'd feel much better about them if I could have gotten electric seats and driver profiles on my 2 driver Volt.
What, the Zora? Don't even go there! That's a sweet machine! :mad:

P.S. Before I forget, Bro participates in a lot of other areas here and is even helpful sometimes. That's not something I can say about Blue. Blue may have thought he was a counterbalance to Bro, but he was mistaken.
 

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So GM is going to push electrification of cars by making niche vehicles, with no support for charging infrastructure and fighting against fuel economy standards. I respect GM engineering, but the big corporate decisions are often pretty messed up. And they have already gone bankrupt once so they may do so again.

I suggest you get rid of the Tesla subforum as it seems too controversial.
GM has a plan and it seems like a very good one to me. It marries electrical vehicles with autonomy. And GM is creating charging infrastructure. It's just charging for Maven and the autonomous vehicles. Note that this charging is for vehicles going hundreds of miles a day, not thirty. So for electric miles driven these local charging initiatives are more important. In this regard, GM seems to me to be more forward thinking than Tesla. Tesla is simply using a different powertrain in an existing vehicle paradigm. GM is rethinking mobility, which to me is more exciting.

Couldn't agree more with the dig at GM for its misguided attempt to roll back the CAFE standards, though it doesn't seem that GM has its heart in that fight. Pretty clear that its mostly about CAFE standards for trucks. That's a big profit for GM and an even bigger one for Ford.

Nothing wrong with the Tesla sub forum and nothing wrong with controversy. Creating multiple posts containing no original content, merely links to other electrical vehicle web sites with Tesla promotional material, is a spamming issue. Viewpoints were never an issue.
 

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I’ve never purchased put options before, until now. Rolling the dice that Tesla stock price will tumble some point in the next 6 months.
 

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This whole thread reads as a one-finger salute to Bluesideup now that he has been silenced.

On any given day there are more negative than positive articles about Tesla in the business news.
Its easy to make that case on balance sheet considerations, but if one looks to future possibilities one's view can be different.

This one analyst had a projection of 15k cars in Q4 2017 that he had held way past the time it was apparent that would not be the case. Then he drops his reevaluation late in the quarter. BFD. Then everyone jumps in and quotes him.

For anyone paying attention on TMC, M3O, etc. Its clear that they have made a lot more than 500 cars and probably fewer than 5K.
They are delivering VINs into the high 2XXX range and assigning VINs to buyers into the 3XXX range. And they have just registered VINS into the 8XXX range.

Say what you will about their past timelines but they have always finally delivered vehicles that were compelling autos regardless of propulsion, not just niche vehicles like Volt and Bolt for example.

The initial reviews of the 3 are great and they are clearly ramping up production.

As far as their future products, they too are extremely compelling in their segments as attested to by the semi reservations from major businesses at 25K a reservation 2 y in advance. And the roadster blows all the competition away in acceleration at a bargain price. And that 600 miles range should make it good for 100 miles or more on a track if they can get the cooling under control.

I don't get the hatred for Tesla here. Skepticism is one thing, but excoriating Bluesideup for always posting positive news about Tesla on the Tesla sub-forum while you use it to attack Tesla with negative news is beyond hypocritical.

I'm on my second Volt and enjoy the car. I come here for info about the Volt and other GM doings with electricity. None of us need rabid hatred for a ground-breaking company that is pushing the entire auto industry into electrification.
Nice reply and very accurate.
 

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Could you imagine any other car company NOT giving out manufacturing data on a monthly basis...:rolleyes:
 
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