A Different Tesla Model 3 EV Miles Prediction Question

Ladogaboy said:

Something else that I wasn't thinking about, but the electrek article reminded me of. Most of the current Tesla fleet still has unlimited, free Supercharger access. It is easy to be frivolous with your driving when all (or most) of your fuel is free. However, moving forward (and for all Model 3s), only a small amount of Supercharger access each year (400 kWh, or about 1,500 miles) will be free.

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The inconvenience of charging and the lack of stations will more likely depress long distance use more than the cost of charging. (Keep in mind that I don't think the M3 will be a $35K car). As I've mentioned before, the people I know who own a Tesla use it for local driving. They don't use it out of town. When I've asked they've said it was too much trouble. We live in something of an EV bubble, so we see people writing about their long trips, but from my experience these would be outliers.

The car itself would also be a barrier. I don't think the M3 is going to be on par with with the Model S in the ride department. From my test drive I thought the Bolt EV would be a great city car but I would not want to take it on a 500 mile trip. Just not that comfortable. For that I'd take a different vehicle. I think that's what we'll see with the M3. Put that together with its price, which suggests the market will be limited to people with more than one vehicle, and you get a formula for local driving.

As a comparison these guys tried to put stats together in various ways. The Big 3 account for 3/4 of the miles. See link for how they calculated and more charts.

I see a LOT of Volts in Chicagoland. I went to WI yesterday in my Tesla X to pick up a utility trailer (165 miles each way). Supercharged at lunch. Used AutoPilot 95% of the way there but could only use Traffic Aware (Adaptive) Cruise Control on the way home with the trailer. Still great tho since I was in stop-n-go traffic for some of that trip home. Saw multiple Volts on the way there and back (but mostly in IL).

https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn...rs-u-s-racked-well-10-billion-e-miles-driven/

It's a tough question to ask what the true competitor to the Model 3 is, or will be. It all depends on the buyer. If a buyer is seeking out affordable EV range, the $ per mile of range might go to the Bolt EV. We'll see what the base Model 3 comes with, here soon enough.

Sure, there will be buyers that seek out the Tesla brand for whatever reason, and no GM vehicle will compete with that.

Then you get to the people who like to travel, beyond their city and wish to do so without burning gasoline. The Model 3 will do that faster and cheaper than the Bolt EV. Maybe they're okay with burning some gasoline, and maybe the competition is the Volt.

GM, along with many other OEMs tend to create a "me too!" car that lines up with classes. They create their own competition. So far, Tesla's vehicles don't really have competitors that evenly line up. Their goal is to set the standards, have other OEMs create competition to their standards, and let the market take over. OEMs didn't really react to the MS/MX, to create competition but they are scrambling to do something about the impending Model 3.

jupitermoon said:

The number in question is directly related to how many Model 3's end up selling and how successful it is.

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I think they will sell a significant number (recall unbelievable interest and initial deposits) ... in my mind the issue will be can they provide high enough quality and have the service center support and coverage for it. I think their storage business provides a huge backing ($ and growth) to their car business.

jupitermoon said:

On another note, to me, Autopilot and this whole autonomous driving thing are completely idiotic. I don't see any value whatsoever in driving around in a car with auto-driving technology that you have to constantly have your hands and feet on high alert just in case something happens. What the hec is the point of that? How is that supposed to improve or increase driving comfort?

Truly idiotic. It's one big gimmick.

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Based on your language this may fall on deaf ears (perhaps helpful to others tho) but after driving over 20K miles on AutoPilot I can equivalently state your mis-perceptions are way off. In simple words/terms, the fact you can lightly hold/feel the steer wheel while car does the fine tune steering as it does the remarkable job staying CENTERed in the lane is VERY comfortable and less tension. It stays centered way better than almost EVERY human around me. Certainly it is adjusting the steering 100s of times per second.

In conjunction with Traffic Aware (Adaptive) Cruise Control (2.5 sec following distance) it makes for more tension free driving. The cruise control feels pretty natural (human) even when cars cut in front of you because it gently slows down to get back to that following distance (vs harsh/rapid braking). This is just ONE example of how it feels "natural".

Ask folks with Adaptive Cruise Control in the Volt / Bolt how much more comfortable it is than regular cruise control in even modest highway traffic. That is one level of help (distance) and AutoSteer is the second level (lane centering). This will give you an idea on a comfort comparison.

SSonnentag said:

They are/were both competing for my money. I put money down on a Bolt, and then later decided the range was not quite sufficient to make my weekly drive. So I bought a Volt and put $1000 down on a TM3. The TM3 has a convenient charging station in the middle of my weekly driving route.

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You are in the minority within a minority and there's nothing wrong with that...Most people in the market for the Bolt EV would not consider any other PHEV/anything that uses gas...Then there are those who wouldn't think about an EV if they had to rely on routine destination charging, in which a PHEV/EREV makes sense if ones okay with using gas...

The primary market for the Bolt EV is an existing EV owner, has a Spark EV/Leaf/500e/etc and can't wait to have double-quadruple the range...The secondary market is green car owners, hybrids, 40MPG+ diesel owners, PHEVs, etc...Exceptions will exist...

Tesla is targeting BMW/Audi/etc ICE owners...Exceptions will exist...

The most important aspect is sales; over half of all EVs are sold in CA, the people who were dying to get a Bolt already have one...While it's not available in all states, reported all over the internet that there are many CA dealers willing to sell out of state and even at a discount...GM predicted 25K/year in annual sales and if the stat that half of all EVs are sold in CA, then they may have trouble reaching that goal at current pricing...All we can do is speculate but GM held firm without incentives or a lease deal for the first 3.25 months (Bolt didn't come until the tail end of Dec) of Bolt sales...Now with inventory increasing in April they knocked about 20% off the lease pricing for April...Now who knows, perhaps if GM mirrors the Bolt EVs incentives to the Volts, including the great 20% off of any dealer discounts, perhaps it'll result in a huge sales spike...

scottf200 said:

I think they will sell a significant number (recall unbelievable interest and initial deposits) ... in my mind the issue will be can they provide high enough quality and have the service center support and coverage for it. I think their storage business provides a huge backing ($ and growth) to their car business.

Based on your language this may fall on deaf ears (perhaps helpful to others tho) but after driving over 20K miles on AutoPilot I can equivalently state your mis-perceptions are way off. In simple words/terms, the fact you can lightly hold/feel the steer wheel while car does the fine tune steering as it does the remarkable job staying CENTERed in the lane is VERY comfortable and less tension. It stays centered way better than almost EVERY human around me. Certainly it is adjusting the steering 100s of times per second.

In conjunction with Traffic Aware (Adaptive) Cruise Control (2.5 sec following distance) it makes for more tension free driving. The cruise control feels pretty natural (human) even when cars cut in front of you because it gently slows down to get back to that following distance (vs harsh/rapid braking). This is just ONE example of how it feels "natural".

Ask folks with Adaptive Cruise Control in the Volt / Bolt how much more comfortable it is than regular cruise control in even modest highway traffic. That is one level of help (distance) and AutoSteer is the second level (lane centering). This will give you an idea on a comfort comparison.

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I've driven a Tesla with Autopilot and I've also experienced ACC. To me, they create more anxiety than they are worth. Anyone who says their attention levels and anxiety levels don't go up when using these automated devices is either lying or in denial. The fact that you have to "watch over" constantly what the car is doing is one additional, huge level of effort you have to add to the effort of driving a vehicle already.

I'll bet you are acutely aware of what the car is going to do next even when you say it's lower stress driving. Do you trust it to all the things it's supposed to do or do you have your hands and feet ready to spring into action all the time?

It simply doesn't make sense to me. I've not seen a single video or example of automated driving systems for road cars...as of yet...where everyone is sitting nervously watching what the car is going to do next. Why put myself through that?

I can see where the benefits of automated driving can come into play for people who cannot get around by themselves or once the entire transportation system becomes automated. But anything short of that, I see no sense in it.

You should see the look on pilot's faces when autopilot does a scheduled maneuver when the pilot's forget that the maneuvers are to be made (e.g. a long haul flight and both pilots are relaxing and the aircraft hits a vector point). This reaction emphasizes how these automated systems severely heighten people's edginess and reactions.

Steverino said:

Did they? I thought they stayed away from making a sales prediction. I know there have been statements made about manufacturing capacity, but I have not seen any from GM on sales for the car.

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Life isn't black and white, it's 50+ shades of grey...We can choose to ignore any possibility of something being valid until the CEO of the company themselves states it as a fact...

The “rumors” of course were via the same source (2 of GM’s own parts suppliers) that first confirmed the Bolt EV into production (before GM), named the location of the production (Orion facility-before GM), when it would go into production (~October of 2016) and that a European version would be built alongside (Opel-before GM did)…all of which turned out to be valid. The only remaining forecast not yet confirmed? The 25,000-30,000 planned capacity run.

http://insideevs.com/general-motors-can-make-50000-chevrolet-bolts-per-year/

But even that 25K number seems harder and harder to meet month after month...I personally created a Bolt EV sales poll in which I believe it would sell more than 25K, however I did not expect the current president to be in office nor his cabinet filled with climate deniers...Chevy also broke tradition with the Bolts pricing in two ways...First incentives, every Chevy including the Z06 Vette qualifies for an array of incentives with some of the most generous being given to the Spark EV and Gen2 Volt...Second pricing, the Gen2 Volt launched through Costco under invoice, the Bolt EV didn't even qualify...So armed with the pricing/incentive structure (and that may improve) and the political climate I believe sales will be closer to 20K...But ultimately it comes down to gas prices, if it shoots up to $5/gal, EV sales will skyrocket...