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A Different Tesla Model 3 EV Miles Prediction Question

3300 Views 34 Replies 16 Participants Last post by  Bacardi
I figure that this would be the best forum to ask this question, so if not, please move it.

For the longest time, I've had an issue with people comparing the Bolt EV and the Model 3. They aren't competitors. However, when it comes to pure BEVs, GM clearly beat Tesla to the average-priced car segment. That's not really a question, but to me the real question is something that has been overlooked by most people. What would GM's Model 3 competitor actually look like. Well, personally, I think we've known since 2010. That's right. GM's EV sedan with a low-slung hatchback trunk has been available at an average new-car MSRP for seven years. Yes, I believe the entry-level Model 3's true competitor is the Chevy Volt.

That being said, if Tesla can ramp up to their full production as planned, we should see roughly four times as many Tesla Model 3s on the road as Chevy Volts by the end of 2018. So, assuming Tesla does meet their production plans, what's your prediction for when the Model 3 will overtake the Volt in total EV miles driven?
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The Volt and Model 3 aren't direct competitors. They aren't the same type of vehicle. The Volt is a EREV or plug-in hybrid and the Model 3 is a BEV.

It's also difficult for the Model 3 to compete when it's not available for sale.
I think the Model 3 will increase Volt sales even more, just as the Bolt increased Volt sales. This is natural due to cross shopping. Also, I expect the Model 3 will increase Bolt sales too. As per the Op's question, I think there will be more Volt's than Model 3's on the road for awhile. Even when Model 3 sales reach a crossover, the average Volt out there will still be putting on 8k-10k a year EV miles, not too far off from the Model 3 miles. Maybe the gen2 Volt gets 75%-85% of an average Model 3's yearly EV mileage? The biggest difference is the Model 3 can take road trips in EV mode; but the daily EV mileage should be close. We already saw the gen1 Volt with more annual EV miles than the Leaf.
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