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A Different Tesla Model 3 EV Miles Prediction Question

3297 Views 34 Replies 16 Participants Last post by  Bacardi
I figure that this would be the best forum to ask this question, so if not, please move it.

For the longest time, I've had an issue with people comparing the Bolt EV and the Model 3. They aren't competitors. However, when it comes to pure BEVs, GM clearly beat Tesla to the average-priced car segment. That's not really a question, but to me the real question is something that has been overlooked by most people. What would GM's Model 3 competitor actually look like. Well, personally, I think we've known since 2010. That's right. GM's EV sedan with a low-slung hatchback trunk has been available at an average new-car MSRP for seven years. Yes, I believe the entry-level Model 3's true competitor is the Chevy Volt.

That being said, if Tesla can ramp up to their full production as planned, we should see roughly four times as many Tesla Model 3s on the road as Chevy Volts by the end of 2018. So, assuming Tesla does meet their production plans, what's your prediction for when the Model 3 will overtake the Volt in total EV miles driven?
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No one seems to want to answer my question about predictions, so I'll add mine first:

I think it will be at least 2020 or 2021 before the EV miles driving by Model 3s surpass the number of EV miles driven by Volts.
You mean the EV miles driven by Volts up to now? Maybe. But the Volts will continue to accumulate miles from now until 2020, and by that year the Gen 3 250+ mile Volt will be out. The TM Model 3 will be too behind to catch up. I am willing to bet $50,000 by 2030 that the Model 3 will be a failure! But you will never get to cash my bet if I lose.
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