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A Different Tesla Model 3 EV Miles Prediction Question

3309 Views 34 Replies 16 Participants Last post by  Bacardi
I figure that this would be the best forum to ask this question, so if not, please move it.

For the longest time, I've had an issue with people comparing the Bolt EV and the Model 3. They aren't competitors. However, when it comes to pure BEVs, GM clearly beat Tesla to the average-priced car segment. That's not really a question, but to me the real question is something that has been overlooked by most people. What would GM's Model 3 competitor actually look like. Well, personally, I think we've known since 2010. That's right. GM's EV sedan with a low-slung hatchback trunk has been available at an average new-car MSRP for seven years. Yes, I believe the entry-level Model 3's true competitor is the Chevy Volt.

That being said, if Tesla can ramp up to their full production as planned, we should see roughly four times as many Tesla Model 3s on the road as Chevy Volts by the end of 2018. So, assuming Tesla does meet their production plans, what's your prediction for when the Model 3 will overtake the Volt in total EV miles driven?
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Two things need to happen for M3 to exceed Volt cumulative miles.

1. People need to drive their M3 more than 50 miles per day. Unlikely.
2. M3 needs to have more cars on the road than Volts. Unlikely. Unless M3 international sales are off-the-chain.

IF (big if) Tesla actually ships employee cars in two months, the whole math problem could change dramatically. I don't see them building 4K cars per month in 2017 or shipping customer cars before June 2018 given past performance.
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