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A Different Tesla Model 3 EV Miles Prediction Question

3302 Views 34 Replies 16 Participants Last post by  Bacardi
I figure that this would be the best forum to ask this question, so if not, please move it.

For the longest time, I've had an issue with people comparing the Bolt EV and the Model 3. They aren't competitors. However, when it comes to pure BEVs, GM clearly beat Tesla to the average-priced car segment. That's not really a question, but to me the real question is something that has been overlooked by most people. What would GM's Model 3 competitor actually look like. Well, personally, I think we've known since 2010. That's right. GM's EV sedan with a low-slung hatchback trunk has been available at an average new-car MSRP for seven years. Yes, I believe the entry-level Model 3's true competitor is the Chevy Volt.

That being said, if Tesla can ramp up to their full production as planned, we should see roughly four times as many Tesla Model 3s on the road as Chevy Volts by the end of 2018. So, assuming Tesla does meet their production plans, what's your prediction for when the Model 3 will overtake the Volt in total EV miles driven?
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I figure that this would be the best forum to ask this question, so if not, please move it.

For the longest time, I've had an issue with people comparing the Bolt EV and the Model 3. They aren't competitors. However, when it comes to pure BEVs, GM clearly beat Tesla to the average-priced car segment. That's not really a question, but to me the real question is something that has been overlooked by most people. What would GM's Model 3 competitor actually look like. Well, personally, I think we've known since 2010. That's right. GM's EV sedan with a low-slung hatchback trunk has been available at an average new-car MSRP for seven years. Yes, I believe the entry-level Model 3's true competitor is the Chevy Volt.

That being said, if Tesla can ramp up to their full production as planned, we should see roughly four times as many Tesla Model 3s on the road as Chevy Volts by the end of 2018. So, assuming Tesla does meet their production plans, what's your prediction for when the Model 3 will overtake the Volt in total EV miles driven?
We can only hope that EVs will match or beat ICE range in a few years...which I think is very doable unless auto makers slow their progress down due to changing EPA rules and idiots in office who will force us in a different direction.

If GM is truly serious about electrifying...which I don't think they are...they'd come out with a Volt EV. I'd have much preferred an all electric Volt even if the range was less. A more aggressive design, lighter car, and all electric. As it stands the Bolt and M3 have nothing in common in terms of vehicle type other than both being electric. I'd never cross shop the two unless my one and ONLY goal was to buy an EV.
The number in question is directly related to how many Model 3's end up selling and how successful it is.

On another note, to me, Autopilot and this whole autonomous driving thing are completely idiotic. I don't see any value whatsoever in driving around in a car with auto-driving technology that you have to constantly have your hands and feet on high alert just in case something happens. What the hec is the point of that? How is that supposed to improve or increase driving comfort?

Truly idiotic. It's one big gimmick.
I think they will sell a significant number (recall unbelievable interest and initial deposits) ... in my mind the issue will be can they provide high enough quality and have the service center support and coverage for it. I think their storage business provides a huge backing ($ and growth) to their car business.

Based on your language this may fall on deaf ears (perhaps helpful to others tho) but after driving over 20K miles on AutoPilot I can equivalently state your mis-perceptions are way off. In simple words/terms, the fact you can lightly hold/feel the steer wheel while car does the fine tune steering as it does the remarkable job staying CENTERed in the lane is VERY comfortable and less tension. It stays centered way better than almost EVERY human around me. Certainly it is adjusting the steering 100s of times per second.

In conjunction with Traffic Aware (Adaptive) Cruise Control (2.5 sec following distance) it makes for more tension free driving. The cruise control feels pretty natural (human) even when cars cut in front of you because it gently slows down to get back to that following distance (vs harsh/rapid braking). This is just ONE example of how it feels "natural".

Ask folks with Adaptive Cruise Control in the Volt / Bolt how much more comfortable it is than regular cruise control in even modest highway traffic. That is one level of help (distance) and AutoSteer is the second level (lane centering). This will give you an idea on a comfort comparison.
I've driven a Tesla with Autopilot and I've also experienced ACC. To me, they create more anxiety than they are worth. Anyone who says their attention levels and anxiety levels don't go up when using these automated devices is either lying or in denial. The fact that you have to "watch over" constantly what the car is doing is one additional, huge level of effort you have to add to the effort of driving a vehicle already.

I'll bet you are acutely aware of what the car is going to do next even when you say it's lower stress driving. Do you trust it to all the things it's supposed to do or do you have your hands and feet ready to spring into action all the time?

It simply doesn't make sense to me. I've not seen a single video or example of automated driving systems for road cars...as of yet...where everyone is sitting nervously watching what the car is going to do next. Why put myself through that?

I can see where the benefits of automated driving can come into play for people who cannot get around by themselves or once the entire transportation system becomes automated. But anything short of that, I see no sense in it.

You should see the look on pilot's faces when autopilot does a scheduled maneuver when the pilot's forget that the maneuvers are to be made (e.g. a long haul flight and both pilots are relaxing and the aircraft hits a vector point). This reaction emphasizes how these automated systems severely heighten people's edginess and reactions.
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