A Different Tesla Model 3 EV Miles Prediction Question

3301 Views 34 Replies 16 Participants Last post by Bacardi, Apr 11, 2017

Ladogaboy

Discussion Starter · Apr 8, 2017

I figure that this would be the best forum to ask this question, so if not, please move it.

For the longest time, I've had an issue with people comparing the Bolt EV and the Model 3. They aren't competitors. However, when it comes to pure BEVs, GM clearly beat Tesla to the average-priced car segment. That's not really a question, but to me the real question is something that has been overlooked by most people. What would GM's Model 3 competitor actually look like. Well, personally, I think we've known since 2010. That's right. GM's EV sedan with a low-slung hatchback trunk has been available at an average new-car MSRP for seven years. Yes, I believe the entry-level Model 3's true competitor is the Chevy Volt.

That being said, if Tesla can ramp up to their full production as planned, we should see roughly four times as many Tesla Model 3s on the road as Chevy Volts by the end of 2018. So, assuming Tesla does meet their production plans, what's your prediction for when the Model 3 will overtake the Volt in total EV miles driven?

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Ladogaboy

Discussion Starter · #3 · Apr 8, 2017

sosmerc said:
Not sure it is a fair comparison as the Model 3 is a pure BEV and the Volt is a hybrid. If the Volt had equal range to the Model 3 on battery only, AND still had the range extending gas motor the Volt would probably continue to be a major seller. The Bolt and the Model 3 will be competitors and I welcome a "range battle" there as well as who can charge the fastest while on road trips!

Well, two things. First, my Bolt EV replaced our C-Max, not our Volt. When I do look to replace our Volt, it will most likely be with a Model 3 or something similar. Why? What's the point of having two sedans when we can have a sedan and a CUV?

Second, if I was asking for total miles, I could see your point in viewing the Volt as a "hybrid." However, the Volt is an extended-range EV, and I'm not concerned with the Volt's total miles. I'm talking solely about the total number of EV miles driven by Volt owners.

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Ladogaboy

Discussion Starter · #6 · Apr 8, 2017

No one seems to want to answer my question about predictions, so I'll add mine first:

I think it will be at least 2020 or 2021 before the EV miles driving by Model 3s surpass the number of EV miles driven by Volts.

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Ladogaboy

Discussion Starter · #8 · Apr 8, 2017

Ah. I just checked Chevy's website. I guess they took down the page that displayed the total number of EV miles driven by all Volt owners (as opposed to just those on VoltStats). Last I saw, it was well over 600 million EV miles driven, and that was a while ago.

If the data isn't still available, then yes, I guess there's no way to predict.

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Ladogaboy

Discussion Starter · #9 · Apr 8, 2017

This appears to be the closest we will get to the discussion I hoping to see:

The company says that Volt owners have driven “almost 1.5 billion miles in EV mode of a total 2.5 billion cumulative miles.”

Electrek Article Total EV Miles Driven by GM and Tesla

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Ladogaboy

Discussion Starter · #11 · Apr 9, 2017

llninja said:
In the end, does it really matter how many cumulative miles the volt and model 3 reach? The real positive is that both the volt and Tesla model 3 probably replaced a pure ice vehicle, so it's a win for the environment, reducing our dependency of foreign oil, and one less thing contributing to tipping the scales of no return on global warming.

I would say that in some ways it does. People are quick to dismiss the Volt as an EV (look at the first response to this thread), and people are highly critical of GM's decision to start with an average priced EREV. Looking at the total number of miles driven on electricity is a very valid metric for assessing the effectiveness of the strategy. If the goal is to replace ICE miles with EV miles, it can be argued that GM beat Tesla to the average-priced, long-range EV not last December but rather seven years ago.

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Ladogaboy

Discussion Starter · #19 · Apr 9, 2017

Something else that I wasn't thinking about, but the electrek article reminded me of. Most of the current Tesla fleet still has unlimited, free Supercharger access. It is easy to be frivolous with your driving when all (or most) of your fuel is free. However, moving forward (and for all Model 3s), only a small amount of Supercharger access each year (400 kWh, or about 1,500 miles) will be free. When paying for your own fuel, no matter how cheap, you tend to drive differently.

Of course, autonomous cars could add yet another variable.

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