Joined
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265 Posts
Hi Guys,
Sorry about the late intro. I needed some time to get toknow you guys and I tend to get focused on one thing (the Engineering Forum) and get blinders for all else. I am guilty of fanaticism. Guys, I am really fired up by this site and my fellow fanatics. (‘fess up, you know who, and what, you are.)
One of my concerns is the fundamental paradigm and societal changes that will be forced upon the world by the combination of a shortage of petrochemical stock and Economics 101, the Law of Supply and Demand. This day was foreseen over 50 years ago by M. King Hubbert. Hubbert, like most visionaries, walked around unrewarded, and with arrows in his back from his colleagues. (This reminds of me of Nikola Tesla, who invented, designed, gave away his patents for, the long distance grid, and then died penniless and unfriended.)
I want to thank Lyle, and you guys, in providing and supporting this EV website and Forum. It has provided a focal point and impetus, for me, to learn about, and then, with your collaboration, develop my own analysis of EV/energy issues. Only the high efficiencies of EVs can provide the twenty year, or so, cushion needed to develop the alternative technologies for oil independence.
I have an MS in Theoretical Physics and an MA in Clinical Psychology. I worked for Delphi (a spinoff of GM), in all phases of the development of a dozen Power Integrated Circuits, ICs, for Electronic Engine Controllers and sensors, mostly for GM. I was involved with power device development for the EV-1. Earlier, I also did some aerospace and defense contractor IC development work.
My goals in the Forum are twofold. First, develop an understanding of energy technology/EVs, and second, to share it. We need an understanding of the potential, and limits, of EVs and of the social and technical challenges of the impending oil/energy crisis. See my post under Forum, Politics, "Thankful for the Impending Oil Crisis."
In the next decade we are headed for a major revolutionary, and not evolutionary, paradigm shift in transportation. EVs (and alternative energy technology) must be transformed from a niche market to a major market segment, for US car manufacturers, and our pocket books, to survive. The capability of EVs must be broadened, and costs reduced, to transform it from a niche, to a primary mode of affordable transportation, for common folks. US manufacturing volumes must be pushed to millions for production learning curves to reduce costs. This classic chicken or the egg dilemma can only be crossed by government cost subsidation/investment. If our government doesn't boldly take the risk, others will. The subsidies and investment will ultimately be repaid by Hotelling's Rule. But, it takes vision to take the leap. It is our challenge to open our neighbor’s eyes to that vision before the window of opportunity slams shut forever.
My fear is that all this investment will go to manufacturing facilities in China and Mexico, while the Japanese build EV plants here in the US. GM needs a paradigm shift in more than just technology. Maybe GM needs to contract Toyota to run an EV manufacturing plant for them here in the US. Why not? At least GM won't lose money on it and the US and workers will benefit from a "economic stimulus package" that is a net gain and not a sham net loss.
Tom
Sorry about the late intro. I needed some time to get toknow you guys and I tend to get focused on one thing (the Engineering Forum) and get blinders for all else. I am guilty of fanaticism. Guys, I am really fired up by this site and my fellow fanatics. (‘fess up, you know who, and what, you are.)
One of my concerns is the fundamental paradigm and societal changes that will be forced upon the world by the combination of a shortage of petrochemical stock and Economics 101, the Law of Supply and Demand. This day was foreseen over 50 years ago by M. King Hubbert. Hubbert, like most visionaries, walked around unrewarded, and with arrows in his back from his colleagues. (This reminds of me of Nikola Tesla, who invented, designed, gave away his patents for, the long distance grid, and then died penniless and unfriended.)
I want to thank Lyle, and you guys, in providing and supporting this EV website and Forum. It has provided a focal point and impetus, for me, to learn about, and then, with your collaboration, develop my own analysis of EV/energy issues. Only the high efficiencies of EVs can provide the twenty year, or so, cushion needed to develop the alternative technologies for oil independence.
I have an MS in Theoretical Physics and an MA in Clinical Psychology. I worked for Delphi (a spinoff of GM), in all phases of the development of a dozen Power Integrated Circuits, ICs, for Electronic Engine Controllers and sensors, mostly for GM. I was involved with power device development for the EV-1. Earlier, I also did some aerospace and defense contractor IC development work.
My goals in the Forum are twofold. First, develop an understanding of energy technology/EVs, and second, to share it. We need an understanding of the potential, and limits, of EVs and of the social and technical challenges of the impending oil/energy crisis. See my post under Forum, Politics, "Thankful for the Impending Oil Crisis."
In the next decade we are headed for a major revolutionary, and not evolutionary, paradigm shift in transportation. EVs (and alternative energy technology) must be transformed from a niche market to a major market segment, for US car manufacturers, and our pocket books, to survive. The capability of EVs must be broadened, and costs reduced, to transform it from a niche, to a primary mode of affordable transportation, for common folks. US manufacturing volumes must be pushed to millions for production learning curves to reduce costs. This classic chicken or the egg dilemma can only be crossed by government cost subsidation/investment. If our government doesn't boldly take the risk, others will. The subsidies and investment will ultimately be repaid by Hotelling's Rule. But, it takes vision to take the leap. It is our challenge to open our neighbor’s eyes to that vision before the window of opportunity slams shut forever.
My fear is that all this investment will go to manufacturing facilities in China and Mexico, while the Japanese build EV plants here in the US. GM needs a paradigm shift in more than just technology. Maybe GM needs to contract Toyota to run an EV manufacturing plant for them here in the US. Why not? At least GM won't lose money on it and the US and workers will benefit from a "economic stimulus package" that is a net gain and not a sham net loss.
Tom
